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$SPY TOP 20
🕑 Added 2025-05-21 19:12:40 +0000 UTCIn the weekends brief, we spoke about the need for the $SPY to retest the 50 WMA from above which is at $570
The catalyst the market believed to trigger this would be the Moody's downgrade on Friday after the market closed but we saw on Monday that the market finished green, rubbishing the initial reaction to this downgrade and the market also finished flat yesterday too.
Now today, the US 10 YR and other Yields went higher, including the Yields in Japan and now the market is finally starting to factor in these macro influences....as the market slowly walks away from the distraction of the Earnings Season and the Moody's downgrade
So the brief from the weekend remains the same, a retest of the 50 WMA is likely next at $570 and how the price action behaves at this important MA will be important.
A hold above this level and the market goes back up to test the ATH level again
Losing this level and we will be looking at confirming Wave C next.
The US 10 YR is the big issue here.....it is concerned that the Tariff War is still ongoing and the market disregarding it will not make the 10 YR dilemma go away
Retail is buying but Institutions are selling....this is what we typically see in a Wave B
The market uses Retail as their exit liquidity
So let's not have the blinkers on here.
Let's stay ready, as we have been.
The test will be important.
Comments
JessyyRabbit
thanks!!
safoo
570 is just 2% away from today’s close. We’ll get some clarity soon
safoo
I agree with both your points. Retail is smarter than ever, and retail participation is structural now, less cyclical. I’m still expecting a leg up to ATH before we sell off. Just feels like the Moody’s and Bond news were a bit forced by market movers. Bears will have their time but right now it feels a few weeks too soon.
JG
“The smart money” sold in the hole in April. The believe that retail money is “the dumb money” is outdated imo. Ofc the market has to pull back after such a V shape recovery.
