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📈The NBA Dynasty Report - November 25 2023📈
🕑 Added 2023-11-25 13:10:12 +0000 UTC10 games on Friday and some massive prospect performances.
And don’t make sure to check out the top lines from Friday’s G League slate.
BOS 96 @ ORL 113
🔸Paolo Banchero (23 PTS | 2-6 3PT | 7 REB | 5 AST | 8-10 2PT | 1-2 FT | 35 MIN) started slow this season but is now taking a big step forward in Year 2. He’s improved his efficiency at all three levels - especially from three (44%) - and we’re finally starting to see some of his midrange attempts switched to more 3PT (11 3PTA in last two games). The FT% is still a huge anchor but he has enough touch that I think that improves with time.
🔸Franz Wagner can’t hit a three right now (1-6 vs. BOS; 28.2 3PT% on the season), but his relentless rim pressure on drives is resulting in the leap at the rim we’ve been waiting for (7-11 in this game, 18-28 [64.2%] in his last three games). Add in improved defensive playmaking and I think we’re about to see a huge third season from Franz.
🔸A quiet game from Jalen Suggs in 28 minutes but he was 3-4 from three and is now shooting a competent 35.9 3PT% and 83.3 FT% on the season. He’s also registered at least one steal in every single game since the Magic’s opener. I don’t know if there’s another offensive leap beyond this type of off-ball player but, even if there isn’t, Suggs is going to be a strong contributor for a long time.
🔸Anthony Black started and then got a quick hook (6 MIN). It feels like he’s out of the rotation once Fultz returns and needs some time before he can contribute on a team that now has playoff aspirations.
PHO 110 @ MEM 89
🔸After fading into the background in his last game, Santi Aldama had big volume in this one (21 PTS | 3-10 3PT | 6-10 2PT | 36 MIN). Expect more games like this until Morant returns with Jaren Jackson Jr. struggling mightily.
🔸David Roddy with a strong performance (14 PTS | 2-4 3PT | 2 STL | 1 BLK | 27 MIN). The defensive playmaking has trended up to average levels this season - but the 3PT shooting has been abysmal (23.8 3PT% on 36th percentile volume). EPM likes his defensive contributions (81st percentile) and that’s consistent with the eye test - he’s been far more competent on that end than he was a rookie. I’m on the fence on whether Roddy can be a long-term rotation piece for Memphis but fairly certain he’s not going to ever be a consistent starter.
🔸Ziaire Williams was out of the rotation here - which was inevitable after 14 games with 48% true shooting. This was Ziaire’s big opportunity to secure a long-term role on the Grizzlies and he just isn’t ready.
MIA 98 @ NYK 100
🔸Immanuel Quickley played only 26 minutes but filled it up (20 PTS | 4-8 3PT). Quickley is one of the games elite drivers (90th percentile drives per 36 min) and elite pull-up 3PT shooters (93rd percentile volume). It’s only a matter of time until IQ is in a big starting role - whether in New York or elsewhere - he’s too good to be wasted on the bench.
🔸Jaime Jaquez Jr. came off the bench but played starter’s minutes and continued to fill the stat sheet despite cold 3PT shooting (15 PTS | 1-6 3PT | 5 REB | 4 AST | 1 AST | 5-11 2PT | 2-2 FT). The 3PT shooting volume continues to be a revelation and gives me confidence that Jaime is going to be a long-term starter for the Heat.
CHI 108 @ TOR 121
🔸Scottie Barnes posted another double-double (13 PTS | 10 REB) with 6 assists - and he blocked two shots (his first blocks in the last week). The 3PT volume is way up (25th percentile last season, 50th percentile this season) but it’s notable that the Raptors are spreading shots across their rotation lately.
🔸Patrick Williams is still coming off the bench (22 MIN) but he’s been better in that role (12 PTS | 2-2 3PT | 5 REB | 1 STL). I’d like to see him on a new team with a fresh start.
🔸After scoring 29 PTS in his last G League game (and shooting 5-9 from three), Julian Phillips made a brief appearance for the Bulls here and is a prospect to watch if this outside shooting leap is real. He shot 23.9% on limited volume at Tennessee but his defensive ceiling is huge, he’s a plus athlete, and a consistent shot could make him into big minute rotation player or possible starter.
DET 113 @ IND 136
🔸Predictably, Cade Cunningham had a big scoring night (31 PTS | 2-4 3PT) against the Pacers’ awful defense, but the efficiency inside the arc continues to be a sore point as every team knows to collapse on Cade without fear of the Pistons hitting a three. It looks like Bojan Bogdanovic could return next week, which should give us a better view into Cade’s true efficiency level in the half court.
🔸Jaden Ivey is back! Cold from three in this one (1-6 3PT) but 25 PTS on 8-10 shooting inside the arc and drawing fouls at a strong clip (6-9 FT). After being horrendous at the rim as a rookie, Ivey is shooting 79.4% at the rim (91st percentile) this season. With his athleticism, that’s an absolute game-changer that unlocks his star upside. The final test is whether he keeps starting and playing around the 32 minutes he had in this game when Bojan returns.
🔸Welcome back, Jalen Duren. 29 minutes off the bench and a double-double (13 PTS | 13 REB). I love his connective passing (4 AST) and the free throw shooting (3-4 in this game; 75% on the season) looks improved.
🔸Bennedict Mathurin came off the bench again but played 31 minutes and scored 15 points with a relatively empty fantasy stat line. He continues to struggle at the rim (46.9%) and is drawing fouls at a much lower rate this year, which is what made us so excited about his upside as a rookie.
🔸Marcus Sasser should play over Killian Hayes but he’s not right now (5 MIN) - much better days are ahead but the playing time is going to be inconsistent this season.
🔸Isaiah Jackson played with Aaron Nesmith out and blocked three shots in 19 minutes. I don’t expect him to be in the rotation when Nesmith returns but it’s encouraging that Carlisle was willing to play him in two-big lineups.
SAC 124 @ MIN 111
🔸Kessler Edwards is playing with Keegan Murray out and the returns were solid (10 PTS | 2-3 3PT | 1 STL | 18 MIN). I think he can be a rotation wing but probably not a fantasy-relevant prospect.
🔸There was some hope that Jaden McDaniels’ injury might lead Kyle Anderson into more minutes at SF, but that hasn’t happened and - accordingly - both Josh Minott and Leonard Miller have been DNP-CDs in the last two games.
WAS 128 @ MIL 131
🔸Bilal Coulibaly is out with a knee bruise so we got 33 minutes of Corey Kispert and he went 6-10 from three for 20 points. At 24 years old, there isn’t much hope for Kispert to expand his stat set beyond big 3PT games like this.
🔸6 PTS and 5 REB in 12 minutes for Johnny Davis - had a nice driving layup in transition and the plus-rebounding from Wisconsin popped here, but I remain unenthused about his chances to become more than a low-end rotation guard.
🔸The Bucks are searching for some replacements in their rotation with Khris Middleton now out with Achilles tendon soreness and Jae Crowder out indefinitely. Andre Jackson Jr. has appeared in the Bucks last 10 games and it feels like a bigger opportunity is coming for him soon - a strong stash in 250+ player leagues because of his strong fantasy stat set.
DEN 86 @ HOU 105
🔸Alperen Şengün played a career-high 43 minutes in a dominant win over Nikola Jokic and the defending-champion Denver Nuggets. Even I didn’t expect to write that sentence this season. This is becoming Al-P’s standard line (21 PTS | 15 REB | 8 AST | 2 STL | 1 BLK) and he’s now registered at least one block in 6 of his last 7 games. Oh - and he’s now up to 87th percentile in Defensive EPM. There’s a legitimate argument for Şengün as a top 10 dynasty asset.
🔸Another strong game from Jalen Green - 25 PTS | 3-8 3PT | 5 REB | 3 STL | 7-10 2PT in 36 minutes and a big win over the Nuggets. The big change? He’s 13-16 at the rim in his last three games. The star indicators are still there - 90th percentile drive rate, 81st percentile foul drawing, and 92nd percentile pull-up 3PT volume. I’m not confident in it - but the Green’s highest-end outcomes are still on the table.
🔸Jabari Smith Jr. continues to be efficient from the field (78 eFG% vs. DEN) and had a career-high 15 rebounds. The volume is going to be limited on a team with this many other options but if he can be this efficient, he can be a strong fantasy contributor with upside to expand his shot volume in his prime.
SAS 112 @ GSW 118
🔸Our expectations are so high for Victor Wembanyama that this strong line - 22 PTS | 1-6 3PT | 9 REB | 4 AST | 1 STL | 2 BLK | 7-12 2PT | 5-5 FT - probably doesn’t generate much buzz. Nice to see more attempts at the rim than midrange in this one and this game was a preview of the elite foul drawing and free-throw shooting we can expect from Victor in future years.
🔸There’s been no improvement in Jeremy Sochan’s steal rate this season and his block rate has declined significantly as he defends on the perimeter more with Wemby and Zach Collins patrolling the interior. In the future, I think we see Sochan move inside more defensively and operate as a disruptive help defender - similar to what Scottie Barnes has transitioned to this season. That should boost his defensive stats and fill out his stat set in his prime.
🔸I had relatively high hopes for Malaki Branham as a three-level scoring prospect but the only real positives this season have been his efficiency from midrange (72nd percentile) and 88.9 FT% on limited attempts at the line. He’s only 20 years old but needs to knock down threes and show some ability to get to the rim (13th percentile rim attempts) if he wants to become a rotation regular.
🔸An efficient outing from Jonathan Kuminga in 20 minutes - 12 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 4-5 2PT - but we hoped for more while Draymond was suspended. I remain optimistic about him growing into a starting role but the 3PT shooting has regressed so far this season (18.2%) and the defensive playmaking has never emerged.
🔸Moses Moody got a token start (17 MIN | 9 PTS | 1-1 3PT) and he’s shown enough to deserve more consistent minutes - demonstrating significantly-improved help defense. He probably tops out as a 3-and-D, multi-year starter and his fantasy upside will be dictated by whether his current steal rate (88th percentile) can hold.
🔸Limited minutes for both of the Warriors’ rookies, Brandin Podziemski and Trayce Jackson-Davis. I think Podz sticks in the rotation but the minutes won’t be consistent enough to matter in fantasy this season. I could see him moving into a much larger role next season in the event CP3 heads to another team or retires - he’s a must-roster in all dynasty leagues.
NOR 116 @ LAC 106
🔸Dyson Daniels started again - despite Jose Alvarado’s return - and played 36 minutes. He’s registered a steal in each of his last six games and has 5+ assists in five of his last six. Dyson will be back on the bench once CJ McCollum returns but it looks like he’ll play ahead of Alvarado and maintain at least a solid rotation role.
🔸Jordan Hawkins’ minutes have declined in each of his last four games and this role (20 MIN) feels like what we should expect once the Pels’ rotation is healthy.
⚡G League Lightning Round⚡
Cam Whitmore
25 PTS | 2-10 3PT | 6 REB | 4 AST | 9-15 2PT | 1-3 FT | 39 MIN
Taylor Hendricks
10 PTS | 0-5 3PT | 8 REB | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 2-4 2PT | 3-4 FT | 35 MIN
Brice Sensabaugh
9 PTS | 3-6 3PT | 2 REB | 5 AST | 0-2 2PT | 28 MIN
Jett Howard
8 PTS | 2-6 3PT | 3 REB | 5 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 0-6 2PT | 1-1 FT | 32 MIN
Emoni Bates
29 PTS | 5-10 3PT | 3 REB | 2 STL | 4 BLK | 3-12 2PT | 4-6 FT | 35 MIN
Rayan Rupert
24 PTS | 5-9 3PT | 12 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 3-7 2PT | 2-2 FT | 34 MIN
Amari Bailey
22 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 6 REB | 3 AST | 1 STL | 8-15 2PT | 2-2 FT | 28 MIN
Sidy Cissoko
14 PTS | 2-5 3PT | 8 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 4-9 2PT | 33 MIN
Jordan Walsh
14 PTS | 2-6 3PT | 6 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 3-5 2PT | 1-1 FT | 31 MIN
Johnny Juzang
24 PTS | 2-6 3PT | 5 REB | 3 STL | 6-8 2PT | 3-3 FT | 31 MIN
Dominick Barlow
22 PTS | 2-4 3PT | 5 REB | 1 AST | 1 BLK | 6-11 2PT | 1 BLK | 32 MIN
JD Davison
15 PTS | 1-4 3PT | 6 REB | 6 AST | 3-13 2PT | 3-4 FT | 36 MIN
Blake Wesley
6 PTS | 0-3 3PT | 3 REB | 9 AST | 2-4 2PT | 1-2 FT | 28 MIN
