Basketball, She Wrote
patreon
Pacers Mailbag: A trade deadline preview that isn't really a trade deadline preview
🕑 Added 2025-01-29 15:07:08 +0000 UTCWho stays and who goes? (just kidding)
By: Caitlin Cooper I @C2_Cooper
As you all likely know by now, I will always say no to questions of the "who says no?" variety when it comes to fake trades. I never get the itch to dust off the trade machine, and I prefer to spotlight what is happening with the Pacers on the court, while experiencing the here and now, rather than speculating about what could happen for the Pacers in the murky unknown of the transaction market, while glancing too far into the future.
But alas, the trade deadline is only a week away, and a lot of you presented me with some very thought-provoking inquiries about the general needs and fit of the team without remotely crossing into "should X player be traded for X player?" territory. For that, and for all of your continued support of me and my work, I am truly grateful. Plus, as always at Basketball, She Wrote, there is plenty of discussion about actual basketball (along with a fun popsicle surprise at the end).
So, without further ado, let's mailbag!
McGuvin: Something I see missing from potential trade discussions right now is any mention of getting a movement shooter. IMO, the team is still missing the skills Buddy Hield offered. I don't think anyone currently on the team could be classified as a movement shooter. To me, that's the major thing Cam Johnson could offer. Am I off base in that analysis?
This isn't technically a fake trade question, so there's no risk of being in breach of the forever-mandated fake trade embargo. As was written prior to the start of the season about Cole Swider, not all catch-and-shoots are created equal and not all movement shooters are created equal, either. That said, the Pacers do not exactly rate highly in either category.
For the season, Indiana ranks 27th in catch-and-shoot three-point attempts per game. According to Second Spectrum, when that number is filtered only to catch-and-shoot attempts on the move, whether to the right, left, or when relocating, the Pacers slip even lower, down to 29th -- at just 5.9 attempts per game. As currently constructed, there are only six players on the roster who have launched at least 20 catch-and-shoot movement threes through the first 45 games of the season.
Here's the list, along with each player's field-goal percentage on those shots:
Tyrese Haliburton - 42.0% on 50 3PA
Myles Turner - 20.4% on 49 3PA
Obi Toppin - 42.4% on 33 3PA
Pascal Siakam - 18.2% on 33 3PA
Bennedict Mathurin - 38.5% on 26 3PA
Ben Sheppard - 37.5% on 24 3PA
If not for the ankle injury that sidelined him for two months, it's possible that Aaron Nesmith also would've made the cut. Nesmith was the second-highest volume shooter on the move for the Pacers last season, trailing Hield, but he only hit on 35.9 percent of those attempts. As such, what stands out most about the aforementioned list is that Haliburton nearly leads the pack in both volume and conversion rate, despite his slow start to the season. Regardless of his slump, he's capable of pulling and tugging at the defense with his gravity, and the Pacers are generally better with multiple ball-handlers on the floor, especially when he gets face-guarded. Still, while he can optimize the spacing of the team for others (sometimes, just with his presence and not even moving), the team doesn't always have an optimum answer to optimize spacing for him in reverse to stay on ball.
Mathurin has shown signs, at least with his activity. The Pacers are occasionally running him off staggers on the weak-side to remove the low-man out of set plays, and he's started to recognize when he should blur in front of the ball at random for Haliburton to create hesitation and reignite the offense.
Striking the match from left to right as a movement shooter is an enhancement to Haliburton, as that direction allows the star guard to attack downhill with his dominant right hand. That's part of the reason why Hield, who more often shoots off screens moving to his left, was a better fit for the offense than Doug McDermott, who starts most of his possessions in the left corner to spring up and around staggers and hand-offs to his right. Mathurin has the movement pattern down in that clip, but he isn't necessarily a quick-trigger shooter, as he's generally more wired to catch-and-drive or catch-and-hold. If the defense has time to recover, the switch pocket may not be quite as open for Haliburton to shoot into against exaggerated game-plans.
Nembhard, meanwhile, can be a very physical screener, as can be seen here when he effectively turns Victor Wembanyama into a pinball, but he doesn't often instill the level of panic leaking out to three that he causes when he's hounding the ball.
All of this contributes to why the Pacers have been zoned more frequently than any team in the league. As a team that wants to play with pace while ranking among the top-10 in the percentage of their possessions featuring a paint touch, there's a reason why Indiana's ability to thwart zone has been a bit feast or famine with highs against Miami and lows versus the likes of Milwaukee, Orlando, and Cleveland -- all of whom the Pacers could potentially play in a playoffs series.
Per Second Spectrum, there are 73 players who have hoisted at least 50 catch-and-shoot threes on the move to the right, left, or in relocation this season. Among them, Cameron Johnson's conversion rate of 47.8 percent ranks seventh. Plus, get this: By comparison to the 264 movement threes that the Pacers have attempted this season as a team, Johnson (who, by the way, is an actual wing-sized wing) has put up 92 all by his lonesome in only 35 games played for the Nets.
It's also eye-catching that, like Hield, he sources a higher percentage of his usage off screens moving to his left rather than his right.
Whether Johnson's durability and defense are worth the reported asking price that's been circling around goes beyond the bounds of this question and would breach the no fake trade embargo, but your analysis is not off base with regard to his ability to answer this one specific need.
Just as a refresher, think back to Game 4 of Indiana's first-round series with the Bucks. McDermott played less than five minutes in that game; however, when Milwaukee went zone, he came in and hit a three. On the next possession following the make, the Bucks were no longer in zone. Likewise, in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals, he entered for exactly nine seconds in the second half, simply to provide tension as the screener for the football-style, end-of-game set that I broke down with assistant coach Jenny Boucek during the summer.
All of which is to say that, McDermott wasn't a perfect fit as a specialist, but there was and could very well still be a special need for a specialist-- especially if there isn't a workable trade for an overall more special player.
Andrew Dorrell: The Pacers facing zone defense has been a hot topic. Which Eastern Conference teams are best equipped to zone the Pacers to death in a 7 game series?
As was mentioned above, Milwaukee, Cleveland, and Orlando all managed to slow down the Pacers to varying degrees with zone. Among the 13 teams that have played at least 100 possessions of zone (which includes all of those three), the Bucks have given up the fewest points per chance. Still, based on how each sets their zone and matches up with the Pacers, the lean here is probably Cleveland. Jalen Suggs and the sprawling limbs surrounding him can make accessing the paint akin to pushing a shopping cart with only three wheels, but the Magic's 29th-ranked offense isn't nearly as slick as that boasted by the league-leading Cavs, which means they may not have as much opportunity to set up in zone.
Another factor that favors the Cavs is how often they baited the Pacers into taking two-point jump-shots with Evan Mobley sagging back in the lane. In the most recent loss, Indiana shot just 12.5 percent on eight jumpers inside the arc. As was written at the time, some of those looks will fall, but they were mainly taking the shots the defense wanted them to take. It would've helped if Tyrese Haliburton had been available for that game, but it's nonetheless eyebrow raising that, after scoring 21 points in the first half on 9-of-11 shooting, Pascal Siakam was held to only two points in the second half and never attempted even a single shot against zone.
For the season, he's still only received six passes in the paint when facing the alternate form of coverage.
To that point, the specific opponent they go up against with regard to zone arguably won't matter as much in playoffs as finding a way to keep Siakam involved against zone -- especially if no other tweaks are made to the roster.
Daniel Klein: You've talked a bit about the Pacers picking up teams full court last postseason and how this is not unusual for them to do. But I don't remember them doing it this much during the regular season last year, does it at all worry you about potential injury durability, or just general exhaustion issues in the postseason if the Pacers continue to press during the regular season?
This could potentially be the downside of consolidation, right? Right now, the Pacers are averaging 37.5 possessions per game with at least one back-court defender -- which is up from 29.3 during the regular season last season. In Part Deux of the Paris games against the Spurs, they recorded 40 possessions with at least one back-court defender just during Victor Wembanyama's minutes. For frame of reference, that's the most possessions the Spurs have faced with at least one back-court defender in any game with him on the floor since he was drafted.
Notably, the Pacers generally aren't just pressuring with a few specific full-court pests. As was demonstrated by Myles Turner in the 38-point win over this Spurs, this can apply to almost everyone on the roster, including the centers who could be seen attached to Wembanyama beyond half-court as a means to limit his potential impact as a trailer. On the very first defensive possession of the game, Pascal Siakam (a forward) was picking up the ball full-court, Myles Turner (a center) was up above half-court, and Andrew Nembhard (a menace) was face-guarding Devin Vassell.
This, along with the fact that the Pacers were occupying Wembanyama as a roamer by forcing him to navigate mazes of picks and lengthening his routes to the basket, was exhausting work -- both for him and the Pacers.
For that reason, it probably matters that 10 players have averaged at least 15 minutes per game for the Pacers since the loss to the Hornets and the four-day layover that followed during the NBA Cup. On the season, no team in the East has 10 players averaging at least 15 minutes per game who have appeared in at least 30 games played. As difficult as it can be to manage a 10-man rotation that can at times swell to an 11-man rotation, Indiana's depth is arguably a big part of what allows them to exhaust opponents without exhausting themselves.
During the 2024 playoffs, the Pacers logged the most possessions with at least one back-court defender of any team in Second Spectrum's database, beginning with the 2013-14 season. Meanwhile, at 52.4 feet, they also recorded the highest average pick-up distance of any postseason team over that same span. There were games during that run when the Pacers trimmed the rotation down to eight, and they still managed to apply un(press)cedented amounts of pressure. Whether they can do that again after doing this for an entire season remains to be seen, but they will certainly be conditioned to try.
That said, if their depth is key to facilitating this style of defense, which at times patches over holes in the half-court, then any consolidation move for an upgrade in talent should probably be evaluated heavily through the lens of what sort of positive impact that player can have on the defense in the half-court to compensate for the fact that they may no longer have as many bodies to be consistently bothersome the full-length of the floor.
Bryce Carrol: One thing I have been noticing is how many points the Pacers' opponents seem to score in the last 10-15 seconds of any quarter. Even if the Pacers had just played a great stretch of defense, the other team always seems to be able to get either an open three, or more often, an open layup in transition as the clock expires. I was wondering if you have maybe noticed this, and what the pacers opponent field-goal percentage looks like in that time frame at the end of a quarter compared to other teams?
When filtering for the end of any quarter (not including overtime) with 15 seconds or less remaining, the league as a whole scores 0.818 points per possession. Indiana, meanwhile, allows 0.837 points per possession, which is only slightly below the league average. Interestingly enough, the Pacers have actually been a bit worse in this category since the defense started to improve following the loss to the Hornets, as they've allowed 0.906 points per possession over that span.
Of course, these are obviously very small sample sizes -- only 92 for the season and 32 over the last 20 games.
If anything, there are some spots where the commitment to full-court pressure has perhaps led to some odd-man advantages at the end of quarters, as it can at times look as though they are hyper-focused on not fouling. For example, this shot didn't count, but there's some noticeable hesitancy to commit to the trap.
There's also some mixed boxouts when scanning through the possessions. Otherwise, as can be seen from how low the points per possession yield is in these situations, scoring at the end of quarters is hard. The Pacers haven't made it considerably easier -- at least not by comparison to league average.
Carson Burton: Do you think Jarace is ready for an expanded role? If a consolidation trade is to happen (which may likely include Obi leaving) and the Pacers need to play Jarace more, how do you think he’ll fare? Do you have any particular concerns for an expanded role?
This was touched on in a recent piece about what can be gleaned from the ongoing flexibility of the closing lineup, but the biggest concern that would come with an expanded role for Walker is his variability and intermittent bouts of casualness.
The Pacers were up by eight with 3:50 to play when he made this pass.
Additionally, after arguably the best performance of his career in the first match-up of the miniseries with Cleveland, he got pulled after two consecutive mistakes in the next game. First, he was late rotating to the rim as the low-man, resulting in a talking-to from Pascal Siakam. Then, on the next possession, he allowed Donovan Mitchell free access to the paint with his strong hand. To quote what was written at the time, after making his mark as a "defensive playmaker, striking the right balance between ambition and restraint while managing to stay connected to the scheme, that didn't translate as much in the second game, as he was more often pressed into containing the ball or lagging with some of his decisions as the secondary rim protector as opposed to stalking the nail and preying on passing lanes with his ridiculous hand-eye coordination and cat-like reflexes. In summary, he's starting to figure it out, but also he's still figuring it out."
If (heavy emphasis on if) Obi Toppin gets moved in a consolidation move at some point, Walker has a much higher defensive ceiling with his physical tools, but he needs to turn up the dial on his motor more consistently and find a way to standout while still blending in. That's less of a question with Toppin, at least offensively.
Eric: I have really enjoyed Nesmith being back in the lineup with his catch and shoot prowess helping bust the zone coverage the pacers are increasingly seeing. His attacking the rim off of closeouts has felt especially strong since he has come back. Unfortunately his return seems to come at the expense of Jarace Walker's minutes in the rotation. Is this just simply a case of Jarace will get some spot minutes here or there with a short leash for mistakes, or are there other lineup combinations that will warrant playing Jarace for extended minutes? I'm thinking maybe against teams with larger wings such as Orlando, Milwaukee, or Boston.
The thing about penciling him in against teams with bigger wings is that part of the reason why he stood out in the win over Cleveland is that he wasn't defending a bigger wing. For example, here he's matched up with Dean Wade, who (yes) technically is a bigger wing, but he isn't a high-usage, star-caliber wing. Likewise, rather than trying to stick with a speedier guard at the point of attack, he switches onto Darius Garland as the screener defender. Then, when he gets caught trailing from behind, he peels off to the perimeter and snatches the pass with his lightning-quick reaction speed and cat-like reflexes.
That's a tremendous play from Nembhard, as he somehow goes from navigating the flare screen to jump-switching onto the ball, but it's also demonstrative of the role that is currently more conducive for Walker's skill-set. When he can't poke the ball away, he's still very reliant on playing in recovery, which means he's generally more effective defending in the gaps. That is, so long as he can do so while staying connected to the scheme. As previously noted, he found the balance between ambition and restraint against Cleveland, as a team without a bigger wing.
Last season, just before the Pacers acquired Pascal Siakam, Aaron Nesmith was starting at the two alongside Haliburton, Bruce Brown, Jalen Smith, and Myles Turner. If the Pacers were desperate to get Walker on the floor, they could shift Nesmith to the two again, playing both of them together as part of bench lineups with McConnell, Toppin/Siakam, and Bryant. The fact that they aren't suggests that they need to see more from him, in reference to the prior question, with regard to consistency and motor. By comparison, whereas Sheppard doesn't often stand out, but almost always blends in, Walker almost always stands out and could stand more often to also blend in.
Even so, look back at the earlier question about full-court press, this team's depth facilitates their play-style, so there will likely still be plenty of time and more chances for Walker to stand out, just as he did against Cleveland, when in his best light.
Sko: I’m sure you’ve seen the talk of Myles being quasi-available solely due to his price tag once he hits free agency this summer. Obviously Thomas Bryant would be a big drop off, but he has shown flashes since being acquired. Beyond the resulting lack of depth from losing Myles, how competitive do you think the Pacers could be if Bryant had to step in as a starter? How do you think he would mesh with the other starters?
Since joining the Pacers, Bryant has shot a very Jalen Smith-like 43.6 percent from three on over two attempts per game. That said, just because he is shooting on par with Turner, doesn't mean he gets guarded like Turner.
For example, look at the difference in coverage out of this pet-play against the Suns. When Turner is at the top of the key, the entry pass to Siakam against the mismatch after setting the vertical chase screen is readily available because the opposing center has their heels outside the free throw circle with a guard as the low-man.
Now, checkout the same action only with Bryant.
To be fair, Bryant ends up making the shot on swing pass back to him, but the rest of the play is shut down as the same opposing center is sagging back in the lane to cover Siakam. That play, referred to as "C4," is one of the team's go-to actions for keeping Siakam posted.
Also, to circle back to the earlier discussion about zone, Bryant can be jittery when forced to make a play in space out of the middle.
The Pacers could potentially swap him out of the middle in favor of Siakam (oh hey, he might get a paint touch!), but the play would probably have to be more static than the circle motion set they're running there, as Bryant isn't a movement shooter and has also only attempted 133 shots after taking two or more dribbles over his seven-year career compared to 51 just this season for Turner.
He's been better than expected on defense, though. He forced Evan Mobley to take a shot with his left hand in space, and he also slid with Donovan Mitchell and blocked his shot at the rim with his off-hand after absorbing the ball out of a late-switch following a hand-off. So, uh, yeah, didn't see that coming!
Still, he doesn't always provide enough resistance at the level of the screen before starting to retreat, and he's averaging fewer than 15 minutes per game, which may be why his transition to this grueling play-style hasn't been as noticeable as what was the case for Siakam ahead of the All-Star break after being traded midseason.
Of course, Bryant leveled up his production when he started in place of Turner against Chicago, notching 22 points to go with eight rebounds, but this discussion is obviously difficult to parse from the reality that there was a reason why the Pacers traded for him in the first place. As you mentioned, if Bryant is the full-time starter there are going to be depth issues, unless another center comes back in a trade.
With Obi Toppin at nominal five, the Pacers have basically been a sieve, allowing 117.1 points per 100 possessions in 355 minutes played. That's barely changed over the last 20 games. Although the defense has improved as a whole, Indiana has still surrendered 117.7 points per 100 possessions with Toppin manning the middle in small ball lineups during this stretch. There still might be a place for that in the playoffs, depending upon the match-up, but (again) there was a reason why they traded for Bryant -- and it clearly wasn't just to add an extra healthy body.
All of which is to say that, if the Pacers trade Turner for financial reasons now, when the team is currently on the upswing and arguably playing the best basketball of the Haliburton-era, there should be a lot of questions for the front office about some of the thinking during the offseason -- especially after he underwhelmed so mightily in the Eastern Conference Finals, finishing with more turnovers than three-point attempts as he struggled to find his footing both in switching out to Boston and against Boston's switches and/or cross-matches.
Of course, this is all hypothetical unless something happens (i.e. THERE'S A FAKE TRADE EMBARGO FOR A REASON), and there's no way of knowing what was available then (when he was coming off a not great series against Boston) by comparison to now, but... there would be lots of questions.
So, so many questions.
Andrew Keeler: Could some of T.J. McConnell's troubles this season be due to the lack of outside shooting with the bench? With Bryant and McConnell on the court together, I imagine some teams just pack the paint leading to less space for his drives and effective operation underneath.
As was pointed out above, just because Bryant and Turner play similarly and can be positioned similarly, doesn't mean that opponents guard them similarly. Still, making sense of spacing that doesn't make sense is kind of T.J. McConnell's jam. During the playoffs the Pacers were plus-23 in 50 minutes during the series against the Knicks with him on the floor in lineups with Isaiah Jackson and the version of Pascal Siakam who had yet to add his summer adaptation as an above-the-break three-point shooter. Granted, the Knicks were playing a skeleton crew, and it behooved the Pacers to leverage their depth to their advantage as much as possible, but things like this happened.
Just to spell it out, that is McConnell avoiding a trap and still managing to attack baseline, despite the fact that three bodies are converging in the paint. He just has a way of tunneling to his spots, as he is once again leading the league in drives per 100 possessions. And yet, he's shooting a season-low of 45.2 percent from the field during the month of January, and he's attempted 27.4 percent of his shots from mid-range, which is up from 20.8 percent on the season. Meanwhile, he's gone just 7-of-23 on those shots, and there are times when he's seemed hesitant to attack with his patented baseline cross-over, even when playing as part of small-ball lineups.
That's a bit unusual, but he's posting the highest usage rate of his career, at 24.2 percent, and that number swelled to nearly 35 percent when he was playing as the lead maestro as part of funky lineups with Siakam, Walker, Furphy, and Toppin when the roster was depleted. Now that everyone is back up and running, it might do him some favors (at least when he isn't being guarded by fives, as was the case against Boston and Charlotte) to find a way to tilt more of the offense toward Siakam with the hybrid bench lineups.
He plays a sapping brand of basketball on a team that also plays an exhausting brand of basketball. It's possible he's hitting a bit of a wall before the All-Star break. At any rate, given that he oftentimes operates like an engine unto himself, more of this likely falls on him galvanizing the bench, than the bench galvanizing him.
Patron-only Popsicle Content
As games that the Pacers play in Detroit have a tendency to do, the last game the Pacers played in Detroit got a little testy. In fact, lipreaders caught Isaiah Stewart allegedly making fun of Myles Turner afterward for his love of playing with Legos.
Of course, anyone who knows Myles Turner knows that he doesn't play with Legos; he builds Lego.
In my opinion, as someone who comes from a very pro-Lego family, if the worst thing you can come up with to say about someone is an insult about "playing with" Lego, then that person has lived an awesome life. As such, with the Pacers set to play a rematch tonight against the Pistons at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, my sister who wishes to remain anonymous decided to build (yes, build!) a special treat for me in the spirit of living, quite obviously, an awesome life.
Behold -- a raspberry lemonade-flavored popsicle, constructed in the image of a Lego minifigure.
To provide all of you with a visual, my 10-year-old nephew (with the help of my sister who wishes to remain anonymous) also carefully crafted this diorama of me putting the finishing touches on this very mailbag while partaking in my favorite snack.
Uncanny, right? Well, like that Lego minifigure version of me, I hope that you, too, are also living an awesome life -- or at least enjoyed this trade deadline preview (and bonus content) that wasn't really a trade deadline preview. As always, thank you so, so much for helping me to "build" this platform.
Comments
Caitlin Cooper
It was very fortunate that she already owned those molds! I'm not very fond of cherry anything, so we went with raspberry to try to mimic the Pistons colors. I'm a big fan of the lemonade/limeade genre of popsicles -- blueberry lemonade, raspberry lemonade, strawberry lemonade, and blackberry limeade are all among my favorites. Of course, so long as they are made with real fruit. That is a must!
Jord
I'm going to need a review of that raspberry lemonade popsicle, its awesome!
Caitlin Cooper
I think most of this is stemming from The Athletic's Jovan Buha's report that Turner reportedly is going to be seeking $30 million-plus in free agency and that, according to what he's heard, the Pacers aren't sure if they want to meet that price. Understandable, from both sides, but the timing is certainly less than ideal -- when the team is 15-5 over the last 20 games and there's no depth at center on the roster. Also have to imagine that, if this report is widely known, then like you mention, seems doubtful that they would get back what he's actually worth. All things considered, would really like to know what his value was during the summer.
Isaiah Fasoldt
Great mailbag, as always! It's really hard for me to see the Pacers trading Myles. His gravity at shooting from 3 feels like an essential part of how we play. His super rare combination of skills (A- rim defense with A- 3 point shooting) mean that he fits with almost any team, leading fans and basketball-trade-content-creators to constantly speculate on how he could help [insert big market basketball team]. But in reality, I think he's worth way more to the Pacers than other teams would be willing to give up, unless he indicates he wants out of Indy for some reason.
