Basketball, She Wrote
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On Obi Toppin and being mired in the present
🕑 Added 2024-12-01 13:00:14 +0000 UTCWhy the reserve forward, now also center, is emblematic of what the team has all too often lost and also not yet gained or replaced
By: Caitlin Cooper I @C2_Cooper
It was a telling sequence even if also not all that consequential to the overall outcome of the game. With less than 30 seconds to play in the third quarter and the Pacers attempting to make a dent in a 90-73 deficit to the Detroit Pistons, Obi Toppin scooped up a loose ball and attempted to lead the charge in the opposite direction, dribbling full-steam ahead into a numbers advantage that quickly transformed into a mosh pit. Then, in changing ends of the floor yet again, the same crowd that had cluttered Indiana's own fast-break opportunity never materialized for them in the reverse, as Cade Cunningham proceeded to mosey the full-length of the floor for a layup against a defense that was seemingly more intent on not fouling than not giving up easy points.
In addition to providing a snapshot of the discrepancy in both physicality and urgency between the two teams, that 30-second span was also somewhat emblematic of the team the Pacers have become -- caught between neither fully recapturing last season's identity nor forging a clearly defined new identity, all while still not fielding a defense that can reliably support the amorphous reality of their current play-style. To an extent, just as he featured heavily in that end-of quarter sequence, arguably no player has been as affected in impact by the changeover in what has been lost and not yet gained, nor replaced, as Obi Toppin, who flourished last season building out the team's strengths but didn't exactly address the team's weaknesses.
Now, with portions of the team playing fast for portions of games and other portions of the team not playing as fast for portions of games, he's arguably building out the team's weaknesses while not always playing to his strengths.
In that regard, after getting tangled up in a fast-break that never broke beyond the lane lines at the end of the third quarter, two things stood out from the start of the final period: 1) the fact that the Pacers were forcing turnovers left and right, mainly because Jarace Walker's sly, deft hands met their perfect match in Cunningham as one of the league's leader in turnovers per game, and 2) how often the Pistons were targeting Toppin.
When Toppin was on the floor for the first six minutes of the quarter, when it seemed as though the Pacers might mount a comeback, Detroit made five shots and committed four turnovers. Of the makes, three were with Toppin as the nearest defender, as he was either screened directly into the action or didn't put up much resistance in support at the rim.
Of course, part of the reason why they were able to hunt down Toppin so easily was because chasing over with him in drop isn't really a viable option with Walker at the point of attack. When a screen is involved, if Walker can't pick the ball or reach-around from behind, he typically gets picked by the pick, which means Toppin was going to get picked on while switching. Still, this was relentless and extended beyond just the pick-and-roll coverage.
Here, after the Pistons ran yet another 1-5 pick-and-roll to get Toppin on-ball, they immediately compounded it with a subsequent side screen to involve McConnell. On the bully drive, however, it wasn't exactly clear which of them was the bigger mismatch, as Toppin doubled to relieve McConnell from the size disadvantage only to then commit a foul while giving up baseline and getting walked into the post.
To be fair, that basket didn't count, but the Pacers have allowed opponents to shoot 72.5 percent at the rim during the 178 minutes that Toppin has played at nominal five without Turner, Wiseman, Jackson, Brown, or Freeman on the floor. For frame of reference, that's worse than the worst rim defense in the league, which belongs to the Utah Jazz, at 71.9 percent. In defense of his literal defense, Toppin isn't a center. With the exception of matching small-ball with small-ball, he's largely only playing center because the other larger bodies who were supposed to be playing center either only have one working Achilles tendon, or in the case of Moses Brown, may have more presence at the rim but aren't guaranteed to be present at the rim, as his conditioning tends to wane along with his ability to cover ground when playing up at the level of the screen.
Even so, the margin for error with Toppin at the five is razor thin. For example, if McConnell overhelps and ends up out of position on the closeout, Toppin probably isn't going to turn the ball back the other way.
The same was the case last season, the only difference was the offense was other-worldly, tallying a mammoth 131.4 points per 100 possessions in the 97 minutes that Siakam was on the floor with Toppin at nominal five, which allowed the Pacers to outscore opponents by 9.1 points per 100 possessions. Now, over a larger sample size, that number has "dropped" to 118.5 points per 100 possessions in 152 minutes, which has the Siakam-Toppin frontcourt breaking even, with the Pacers posting a net rating of zero. Overall, according to Cleaning the Glass, no one on the team has a lower swing net rating than Toppin (-16.6), as the Pacers have scored 3.7 points per 100 possessions less with him on the floor while also giving up 12.9 points per 100 possessions more.
In this game, he notched two points in transition and never made a three, as he scored just five points on 1-of-5 shooting. Last season, there were only 18 games in which he tallied two points or less in transition and never made a three. The Pacers, perhaps in providing a bellwether for hot girl basketball, went 6-12 in those games and only managed to win his minutes in seven of the 18. This season, there's already been eight such games through November, and the Pacers have only won his minutes in one of the eight.
As the Pacers have fallen from ranking seventh in transition frequency to 16th, Toppin has only seen a slight corresponding dip in the percentage of his usage that comes in transition, dropping from 27.9 percent to 26.5, but he's spotting up more frequently and cutting less, while only shooting 31 percent from three after knocking down a career-best 40 percent in his first season with Indiana.
Meanwhile, although the team is posting a faster average possession length with him on the floor (13.9 seconds) than off (14.5), they're averaging fewer transition possessions per game with him on the floor this season (7.6) by comparison to last (8.6), according to Second Spectrum.
A lot has changed since then. He's playing more often at the five, the team is playing more often in the half-court, and the second unit, which started out trying to adapt to the additions of Mathurin and Walker, is now also adjusting to the inclusion of Johnny Furphy and sometimes also Freeman or Brown.
And yet, for a player who signed a four-year, $60 million contract over the summer, signaling both the team's belief in continuity as their strongest path to improvement along with the potential for an eventual consolidation trade, he now seems to be representative of a different type of indicator, mired in the present of not compensating defensively for fast-breaks that don't always break right while in need of finding a literal quick fix to bring the past back into the future.
Comments
K.S
If Halliburton keeps this up, I expect them to go 34-48 this season and finish 10th to 12th in the Eastern Conference. It's frustrating because they are a team with a lot of potential.
Jeff Hasser
I was more optimistic (delusional?) about Obi being able to play some spot minutes at the 5. At least with the contract he was given, it seemed like the Pacers thought that too.
