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Pacers Mailbag: Accentuating the positives amid three-game win streak
🕑 Added 2024-11-28 16:19:15 +0000 UTCAnswering questions about the basketball played by the Pacers
By: Caitlin Cooper I @C2_Cooper
With the Pacers enjoying some home cooking against losing teams at Gainbridge Fieldhouse amid a three-game win streak, there are currently a few more positive takeaways than what was the case the last time we convened for this exercise last month, let alone by comparison to last week, when the team -- and especially the team's star -- seemed at a loss for answers as they were piling up losses. As such, there were plenty of questions about what should be looked at favorably from this current turnaround, along with some inquiries about the holiday and various areas that might still be in need of improvement.
Needless to say, it's a veritable smorgasbord of a mailbag! Let's dig in!
David Carr: Tyrese has been playing better the last four games. Have you seen anything different from him in terms of movement/athleticism from the issues he was having before or do you think it has more to do with him just shooting the three better?
Making shots certainly helps, as does this type of coverage, when Javonte Green picked him up full-court only to then duck under the hand-off and also get caught on the re-screen despite the fact that Haliburton had already made eight threes in the game.
Still, just to emphasize, Haliburton had "already made eight threes in the game" and ended up finishing with nine. If nothing else, that much seems to be turning the corner, as he's knocked down 23 of his last 49 attempts (46 percent) after starting the season shooting just 28.4 percent through his first 15 games.
That said, there's been a few other positive indicators that go beyond just improved shooting. For example, look at his approach on this inbounds pass and notice how, with his back facing the sideline, he stampedes the catch to loop up the floor and then throws the ball out ahead of himself into the screen to shed the full-court pressure.
That's a stark contrast from the team's first possession following a make in Toronto, when he automatically motioned for Mathurin to bring the ball up the floor instead as he was being shadowed.
Since that was their first play of the game, it's possible that was by design, but even when he came up from the corner out of a hand-off connected to a ball-screen, he didn't look to turn the ball downhill. He threw a boomerang pass back to Mathurin, which eventually turned into a late-clock grenade.
Another distinction that stood out in the win over Portland was this possession, in which he kept moving and cutting against the ball denial until he eventually freed himself by playing off Siakam's gravity at the elbow. More encouraging, though, was that after he got squared up dribbling off the pick to his left, he kept working to find the angle to the rim, albeit finishing with his inside hand.
On the season, the Pacers have scored just 0.788 points per chance on possessions featuring a drive from Haliburton to his left, compared to 1.080 on possessions when he drives to his right. Tellingly, he's also passed on 60 percent of his drives to his left. For frame of reference, among the 80 regular rotation guards who are averaging at least five drives per game, Houston's Fred VanVleet has the highest pass out rate on drives, including both directions, of any player in the league, at 58.3 percent. That means, when Haliburton drives to his left, he's passed more often than even the most frequent passer in VanVleet, who isn't exactly known for pressuring the rim due to both his smaller stature and lack of blowby speed.
Granted, the entire left side of the floor was cleared out on that possession against Portland, but there have been instances this season when he has very notably just gotten off the ball when weaked to his left, as though he didn't want to test the limits of his own burst or at the very least his finishing ability.
For what it's worth and however much it matters, the back contraption he was wearing during the playoffs is still making plenty of cameos during huddles and timeouts when he isn't on the floor, but there's seemed to be some steps in the right direction against the Blazers as far as his level of aggressiveness -- not only when he isn't going right, but also with regard to handling the pressure.
Craig Lindemann: With more time to jell, how are you feeling about the fit of the Ty/Benn starting backcourt? Have you seen anything new or unexpected recently?
The Pacers have been outscored by 2.97 points per 100 possessions in the 460 minutes that Haliburton and Mathurin have been on the floor together, with opponents racking up 119.6 points per 100 possessions. The worst defense in the league, which currently belongs to the Utah Jazz, has allowed 119.0 points per 100 possessions. That's tough, especially considering that the opposition has only shot 34 percent from three during their shared court time.
Regardless of their stylistic differences on offense, for that pairing to be viable, there has to be some degree of progress from each of them at the other end of the floor. In that regard, as far as something unexpected, this was a welcome sight during crunch-time against the Blazers.
With Haliburton's match-up attempting to screen him into the action, Mathurin jumped into the fray, pre-switching on the screen approach in an attempt to protect the star guard from being targeted. Granted, Scoot Henderson immediately motioned for Haliburton's new match-up to follow with a subsequent screen, but at least the rigmarole necessary to hunt down Haliburton forced the Blazers deeper into the shot-clock. Plus, Haliburton didn't show on the screen to avoid giving up the mismatch; he switched. And, once he switched, he managed to cut-off the driving angle for Anfernee Simons as the clock was winding down with the aid of his length and his attention to detail with a weak-hand contest.
For a team that ranks last in the league in points per chance allowed off drives, the expectation for those types of showings -- with Mathurin executing an off-ball switch and Haliburton providing at least some degree of on-ball friction -- needs to grow into being something other than entirely unexpected.
Paul Glennan-March: Caitlin, you’ve pointed out the Pacers haven’t really solved the zone. What I’m curious about either from an Xs and Os point or perhaps a personnel point, is why teams don’t implement the zone more often. Does it have to do with it being too predictable, does it tax players, or is there something I’m missing as to why it’s not done more often? The only reasons I can think to not do it would be above the break 3s or puncturing the middle of the zone.
Playing zone is a roll of the dice. Generally speaking, teams aren't typically as practiced in running it, so it can become a question of whether the defense can get away with playing, say, three possessions of zone in a row or seven possessions of zone in a row, with possessions four through seven potentially going poorly once the opposing team figures out what they're seeing.
According to Second Spectrum, the Pacers have faced zone on 90 possessions this season, which is the most of any team in the league. On those possessions, they've scored 0.967 points per possession, compared to 1.158 against man coverage. Just to put that zone number into further perspective, the worst offense in the league belongs to the Washington Wizards, who are generating 1.049 points per possession overall against both man and zone. That means, when the Pacers face zone, they've scored less efficiently than the NBA's least efficient offense. Not great!
Of course, 90 possessions is a tiny sample size and a huge part of the "effectiveness" of zone coverage can often hinge on whether the opponent hits from deep. In that regard, the Pacers have shot 11-of-34 (32 percent) against zone while also committing 10 turnovers. As such, if they shoot closer to their overall mark of 37 percent from deep while also taking better care of the ball, the numbers against zone would obviously look a bit better. Still, only 35 of those 90 possessions have featured a drive, which provides opponents with added reason to go zone. After all, if the Pacers are going to shoot worse while also playing east-west more often, with one likely begetting the other, why would teams change from sticking with the change-up?
Here's a few possible explanations. In the home win over the Magic, the Pacers only made a shot on 3-of-16 zone possessions. In fact, with 43 seconds left to play, they had come up empty on their prior seven shots against mainly zone. At that point, however, there was a brief stoppage in play to review a goal-tend from Myles Turner. There's no way to know for sure, but given that both teams had time to think things over, it's possible that Orlando may have thought too hard in anticipation of the Pacers, perhaps, drawing up a zone buster. As a result, the Magic went back to man, and it back-fired, as the Pacers instead went to a wedge roll between Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam, which worked -- at long last -- to knock Jalen Suggs off the scent at the point of attack for a big, late-game three from Haliburton.
In addition to outmaneuvering the opponent (and, in some cases, maybe fixing what isn't broken), another motivation likely stems from what was previously stated: teams get skittish that the opposition has figured out what they're seeing. For example, the Pacers had only scored points on 8-of-20 zone possessions against New Orleans on Monday, but as soon as Siakam flashed middle (this should happen more often!), and they didn't stay lower than the lowest man, the Pelicans got out of the zone and never went back to it.
From that point forward, the Pacers outscored them 21-17 while shooting 58 percent overall and only committing one turnover.
Lastly, for teams who are already deficient on the glass, giving up a string of offensive rebounds can also be a deterrent. Think back to Game 3 of the first-round of the playoffs, when the Pacers won in overtime and finished with 19 offensive rebounds while attempting 17 more shots than the Bucks. In that game, they only scored points on 5-of-17 zone chances in the first half, but they exploited the holes on the glass (especially against the smaller lineups with Bobby Portis at the five that also saw Patrick Beverly playing at the bottom), even to the point of getting three offensive rebounds on the same possession.
In the second half, Milwaukee never went back to the zone. As a whole, the league has posted a slightly higher offensive rebounding percentage this season against zone (23.7), when defenders are spread out and may not be in the direct vicinity of certain players against overloads, than versus man (22.4).
In that regard, the very reason that teams, like the Pacers, might be playing zone, as a means to protect weak-links from being called up into the action or to enable going small without a traditional rim protector, could actually make them more vulnerable to their already existing vulnerabilities.
Jord: We're one month into the season and the overwhelming majority of Pacers discourse between fans has expectedly focused on the negatives and the inconsistencies of the team, so focus in on the positives instead what (if anything) have you noticed that the Pacers have been doing consistently better than last year?
As Samson pointed out in his recent column about Pascal Siakam, whose one constant has been his ability to keep changing and growing, he's shooting better than ever from deep, as he is "now cocking and flattening his wrist far more on three-point attempts and seeing great results."
In essence, that tweak is allowing him to get a lot more wrist flick on his three-point shots. As of now, Siakam has shot a career-high of 44 percent on above-the-break threes while also attempting the highest percentage of his shots as above-the-break threes in six seasons (19.2 percent). In fact, he's nearly made the same number of above-the-break threes (24) as Mathurin (26), who arguably needs to shoot more often when he's open as opposed to always being quite so wired to catch-and-drive.
Still, this is certainly a positive development from Siakam, especially given that he's also nearly attempted as many threes out of the pick-and-pop as a screener for Haliburton (11) as Haliburton has set picks for him in the reverse (16). If that's going to more often be the arrangement this season, as there isn't always as much of an advantage with Haliburton as the screener if he's being guarded by the toughest perimeter defender and the defense switches, then the work Siakam put in this summer to unlock himself in catch-and-shoot situations will be critical to him functioning like a skeleton key.
For example, look back at that possession of Haliburton driving left against the Blazers and take note of why the lane to the rim was open. When Siakam stepped back out to the three-point line, look who stepped back with him.
For the game, Deandre Ayton nearly defended Siakam for as many half-court match-ups (18) as Turner (24). With that being a frequent cross-match, Haliburton didn't just show progress in working to find the angle on that possession, Siakam also showed progress in providing gravity with his cut -- even when he wasn't shooting.
Mathurin, meanwhile, could still stand to increase his shot-volume from deep when the read is for him to shoot, but he's definitely made steady progress in bulking up on the glass. In fact, since he saw his minutes cut in the loss to Philly due to his rebounding and defense, he's averaged 6.3 defensive rebounds per game, which ranks eighth among all players classified as guards over that span. The Pacers have given up the third-most offensive rebounds following a missed three in the league, so anytime there is this level of focus for two guards to box-out at the same time, with Quenton Jackson getting into the legs of Ayton at the same time as Mathurin is walling of Avdija, in anticipation of the weak-side ricochet, is a sight to see.
That's a contested rebound! Remember, this was not a contested rebound.
That's growth and, maybe, just maybe, the impact of the way in which he's been coached.
Moxy Doxy: Do you have any takeaways from limited Johnny Furphy time?
Given that old friend Malcolm Brodgon recorded a very T.J. McConnell-esque tally of 30.8 drives per 100 possessions in this game, it didn't go unnoticed that Furphy was one of few players who managed to stay in front even after being brushed by a ghost screen from Corey Kispert.
Of course, it helped that Obi Toppin and McConnell both started to sink toward the ball, but it's still notable that he managed to play in contain -- especially since, just to repeat, this team ranks last in points allowed per chance out of drives. That said, the main takeaway at this point is that he needs to add strength. This stretch at the start of the fourth quarter against Portland, in which he missed an above-the-break three and immediately got backed down by Avdija resulting in a foul from Siakam on the double-team only to then pick up his own foul for holding on the off-ball cut to the point that the Pacers ended up needing to go zone, looked like a teenager trying not to get pushed around.
And, here's the thing: He is a teenager trying not to get pushed around. If not for the current injuries, he likely wouldn't be in the rotation, which is fine, because his physique doesn't currently match his physicality -- providing an interesting contrast in the long-term to the player at the top of the zone in that possession, whose physicality doesn't often match his physique.
Sam Osbourne: I was wondering if you could match each Pacer with what dish they would be on a Thanksgiving spread. For example, I feel like Tyrese is the Turkey (or Ham), he's the crux of the meal but if he's bad then it holds back the rest of the meal.
Alright, let's build out a plate with the rest of the current starters.
Myles Turner: As the longest-tenured player on the roster, Turner has to be pumpkin pie. Even when someone tries to surprise everyone with a trendy alternative dessert of some sort (oh hey, remember when the Pacers pursued Deandre Ayton in restricted free agency?), pumpkin always manages to endure as a mainstay. It's also very smooth in consistency, just like Turner's jump-shot.
When Turner is good, he is very good, scoring 34 points against the Miami Heat and going from allowing Point Bam to walk into uncontested threes to picking him up higher and contesting multiple shots on the same possession. But, like pumpkin pie when it's wobbly and runny, he can also be very bad when he's bad, stumbling and bumbling against mismatches in Charlotte while also not being quite as spry as he once was to rotate to the rim. It's hard to imagine a Thanksgiving without pumpkin pie, and it's also hard to imagine the Pacers without Turner, but there have certainly been some games this season when his impact has been underwhelming and comparable to a slice of pumpkin pie that doesn't exactly leave a fork mark.
Quenton Jackson: Jackson was supposed to float between the Pacers and the G League. Instead, with Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, and Ben Sheppard all injured, he's now started in five games. That means, he's gravy. Very similar to how no one would just eat a bowl of gravy without some sort of starch to support it, no one wants to remember the Summer Pacers when, as a dynamic slasher, he had to masquerade as a lead ball-handler. Now, though, when he's attacking into a tilted defense or has the opportunity to spot-up around the advantages created by others, he's shown that he can be additive under the right circumstances.
Also, he plays defense with reckless abandon, throwing his body into illegal screens and sometimes bordering on overaggressive in ways that can leave him out of position. Gravy can have a similar effect on a dinner plate, as it can be difficult to restrain with a high level of variance in flavor depending upon which crevices of the meal it happens to stray into. Overall, given the way in which he's been pressed into action, whatever he brings is largely an exact play on the namesake of the comparison: gravy.
Pascal Siakam: Every Thanksgiving is better with a dish of mac and cheese on the table, and the Pacers have undeniably been better this season with Pascal Siakam on the floor as the team's most reliable and consistent performer. For a player who is currently posting his lowest usage rate since he played third fiddle to Kawhi Leonard and Kyle Lowry in the run-up to a Championship, there's also been plenty of instances when there's a strong argument for wanting more of his touches and involvement, just like the overwhelming desire to go back for seconds of mac and cheese.
That said, just like mac and cheese can be rich and heavy, there also isn't always a clear path to how more can be more. In Houston, when he had 19 points in the first half, he only attempted two shots, set three screens, and received a total of seven passes after halftime, albeit while only playing 12 minutes in a game that quickly got out of hand. Of course, a contributing factor to why that game quickly got out of hand was because the ball was rarely making it to his hands. Granted, he was being doubled in the post, and he wasn't being guarded by Alperen Sengun, but this is kind of like loading up on rolls at the expense of other better and more essential dishes. On the whole, the Pacers make the most sense when Tyrese Haliburton is and plays like the team's best player, but you're doing it wrong if you don't make room for the extra helpings of mac and cheese.
Bennedict Mathurin: Ideally, stuffing complements turkey, just as the hope is that Mathurin will grow into being a complement to Haliburton while also adding his own burst of flavor and texture.
When made from scratch and properly seasoned, stuffing is the equivalent of the reaction that Mathurin gets anytime he makes an extra pass or the reaction he gave in response to Haliburton while still hanging on the rim when he ran the floor for the key, late-game lob against New Orleans, as he shows he can do what he does while also being part of what the team does. Conversely, if the stuffing comes out of a box, that can be a bit like when he puts his head down and is predetermined in his determination to get to the rim. If the options are pre-packaged stuffing or no stuffing at all, the fact that he's finishing at the rim better than ever while also getting to the line as much as ever, says that the pre-packaged version can still be quite palatable, if not very good.
Still, what happens at the other end of the floor and in combination with the other dishes on the plate, will likely dictate the amount of the preferred serving size.
Joe Takayoshi: Important question - what’s your favorite Thanksgiving dish?
(Psst.. spoiler alert... this question is going to double as the patron-only popsicle content.) Well, despite everything that was just written in comparing the current starters to dishes that are typically found on a Thanksgiving spread, my table is generally anything but typical. In fact, in a few short hours, I plan on "carving" into some buttery scallops, as opposed to turkey or ham. There also won't be any pumpkin pie (gasp!). Don't worry, this isn't meant to foreshadow anything about Myles Turner's long-term future with the Pacers. I just want to surprise my sister who wishes to remain anonymous with a dessert my mom used to make for us on holidays when we were kids. She deserves it. Not only because she is the employee of every month at this publication (although she might start facing some competition from Samson with the way you all have responded to his work, haha), but also because she does stuff like this for me all the time and has earned facing more competition from me for her title as the better sister.
We'll see if I can measure up. As of now, my favorite Thanksgiving dish is still these cranberry lime popsicles that she whipped up for me a few years ago.
At the time, I had mentioned in passing that cranberry was my most wished for Outshine flavor that doesn't exist. Next thing I knew, she was at my doorstep with a hand-crafted recipe that also included lime, because she thought I would like the inclusion of lime. I was skeptical; but, dang it, she was right. I loved the inclusion of the freaking-lime! They were works of art -- a perfect balance of tangy sweetness with a sorbet-like texture. Needless to say, even if I execute our childhood-favorite dessert to perfection today, I'm probably still not touching her title as the better sister. Of course, even when I lose in that sense, I still win.
On that note, if my sister who wishes to remain anonymous is reading this, thanks for convincing me to try writing my way. In many ways, I have you to thank for why I have a chance to thank everyone here for supporting me in having a home to write about the actual basketball aspects of basketball (albeit also with the inclusion of this very basketball-adjacent aside, sorry!).
At any rate, I'm grateful for all of you -- today and everyday.
Comments
Caitlin Cooper
Hahah, Nicey Treat forever and always!
Jord
Happy Turkey day, and thanks for the good reads!
James T Sandberg
Thankful for your work of course. Thankful also for your patron only meet and greet at the popsicle spot on the Northside. I assume that’s happening when, April?
Dan Favale
quenton jackson as gravy deserves a mf'n pulitzer.
Caitlin Cooper
Same to you!
Caitlin Cooper
It is a delicate science, to be sure. A year ago, I overcooked them and they were a bit on the rubbery side -- unfortunately. This year, they were seared just right. I keep it simple. Just sautéed in the skillet.
naptowndrew
Happy Thanksgiving! I am truly thankful for your Pacers analysis. Your work adds a gigantic, extra layer of enjoyment to Pacers basketball for me. I am curious about the scallops! I love them and they are challenging to get right. I can only imagine your confidence in making them for arguably the highest profile meal of the year. Any scallop cooking guidance you can share?
Anthony Duckworth
Happy Thanksgiving 🦃
Anthony Duckworth
And thank you Anonymous Cooper Sister…
Anthony Duckworth
Thank you Caitlin..
