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Mailbag: What happened to the (Pace)rs?
🕑 Added 2024-10-30 13:39:29 +0000 UTCAnswering questions about what's led to the 1-3 start for the Pacers
By: Caitlin Cooper I @C2_Cooper
The Pacers are 1-3 to start the season. What follows is an attempt to explain the "why" of what's changed about a team that didn't change, presented via mailbag questions, while keeping in mind that only four basketball games have been played.
Without further ado, let's react accordingly.
Adam Bauer: The offense has seen a clear dip in production. The biggest take away I have seen is they are slower to get into transition. According to NBA.com, they rank 26th in pace so far this season. Is this deliberate or a byproduct of something else?
Prior to the game against Orlando, the Pacers ranked 23rd in transition frequency, starting 13.9 percent of their possessions with a transition play, compared to 15.8 percent last season -- which was good for seventh. From a tactical standpoint, Philadelphia took the keys away from the Pacers by attacking the glass. Generally speaking, offensive rebounding and transition defense are often thought to be at odds with each other. As in, teams can either be good at one or the other, but not both. After all, crashing comes with the risk of leak-outs, right? Well, that's slowly started to trend in the opposite direction. For the Sixers, their offensive rebounding actually improved their transition defense.
Here's how: On an offensive shot, look at how they ran to the backs of the Pacers, aggressively moving toward the basket while driving them into the paint and staying on the high side of their match-ups.
Again, as was noted in the piece on what went haywire for the Pacers in that loss, there's reason to ask why Haliburton didn't make contact with a chest-to-chest box-out after face-guarding on the cut, but that was a deliberate strategy from the Sixers to create 50/50 offensive rebounding opportunities and make it easier to match-up in transition after a missed shot.
They did this over and over and over again.
Granted, the Pacers made a lot of those 50/50 opportunities seem more like 80/20 opportunities with how listless they were at times; however, in addition to giving up 20 offensive rebounds and finishing with 14 fewer field-goal attempts than the Sixers, Haliburton recorded just 8.861 advance passes per 100 possessions compared to the 11.938 he averaged last season. Some of that is because Caleb Martin also face-guarded and prevented him from getting the ball on some possessions, which tilted the offense to other ball-handlers, but the Pacers scored a grand total of 10 fast-break points. There were only 15 games last season in which they failed to score above that mark, and Haliburton either didn't play (4) or was on a minutes restriction (2) in six of them.
On the night, the Sixers corralled 12 offensive rebounds following a missed three, and even when they didn't track down the carom, the fact that they stayed on the high-side while crashing meant that they could easily match-up in transition without giving up a numbers advantage.
Not every team is going to be able to implement that strategy of tagging up on the fly, as it requires principles and discipline to avoid outrunning the coverage (i.e. if a player outruns the match-up and they don't get the rebound, then the transition defense aspect of attacking the offensive glass from the high side is going to be compromised), but it won't come as a surprise if more opponents start trying, especially if the Pacers continue making it that easy.
Tyler: Can the (quite alarming) rebounding issues be mostly rectified via scheme or is the infamous and somewhat inevitable “consolidation trade” going to end up somehow being the solution to this problem?
Rebounding can oftentimes be oversimplified to who wants the ball more, when the reality is that defense can have a lot to do with what shots are taken and where players are positioned in relation to what ricochets can be expected, but some of the rebounds the Pacers don't come up with can be unfathomable and really do boil down to not wanting the ball enough. As was touched on following the loss against the Sixers, now that the Pacers are allowing opponents to take a higher percentage of their shots as threes, they're going to have to contend with more long rebounds. Through four games, they given up 34 offensive rebounds following a missed three -- that's more than any team in the league. Meanwhile, they also ranked 29th in opponent offensive rebounding rate following a missed three. As such, that could be a potential tax of sending more help with the low-man or at the nail. Still, the scheme can't rectify possessions like this.
Or, this -- especially in wake of the progress Turner made during the second half in Detroit.
At the risk of sounding overly pedantic and glib, just grab the basketball. Some of the second-chances the Pacers have given up through first four games don't have much to do with length or positional size. There's reason to think those areas will still need to be addressed with a consolidation trade at some point, given (well) Paolo Banchero's 50-point game in which he looked like he was made of titanium, but those measurables will only mean as much as the level of volume on their sense of urgency.
Bob Cook: It’s been said in the past that Tyrese’s unselfishness is why he doesn’t tend to take over games like, say, the other Tyrese did recently. How are defenses taking Halliburton out of games — and how may Tyrese himself be doing the same?
The end of the game against Orlando is most informative as to this question. Jalen Suggs was face-guarding Tyrese Haliburton during the fourth quarter, so the Pacers went to their usual counter, with the star guard starting possessions away from the ball. Here, he can be seen cutting beneath a pair of staggered Iverson-like screens in order to get a clean catch at the opposite wing against the top-lock, as Suggs was parking his body between Haliburton and the screen.
From there, Isaiah Jackson and Obi Toppin both approach to run an angled double ball-screen for Haliburton, but watch Jalen Suggs. In anticipation of the screen, he immediately flips his hips to force the action to the sideline and then aggressively overplays Haliburton's dominant right hand.
Normally, a basic counter for that would be for Isaiah Jackson to change the angle of his screen into a step-up screen for Haliburton to snake his dribble and drag out the screener defender.
The only problem is, earlier in the game, the Magic had shown that when the Pacers re-screened or flipped the angle on a screen with an empty corner, they automatically blitzed.
So, that's probably why Jackson slipped out of the pick. At any rate, for the rest of the game, the Pacers initiated mainly with Nembhard, while attempting various methods that were intended either to spring Haliburton free or attack an interior mismatch.
On this possession, they went with their go-to "c" action, with Siakam setting a vertical chase screen for the purpose of leveraging a size advantage against Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. When Caldwell-Pope fronts the mismatch, they flowed directly into their next option, which is a stagger for the player in the far corner to cut to the opposite wing. After that got covered up, they reversed the ball back to the mismatch with Siakam, but the catch arguably wasn't deep enough.
Of course, it also didn't help that Turner whiffed on the second screen of the stagger that might've provided Haliburton with some breathing room, but the main point of why the offense was being run through Nembhard should be clear. Just look at these back-to-back possessions. With Haliburton as the screener, they switch Suggs onto Nembhard and then play Haliburton into space for a clean shot off the flare screen, which he knocks down.
On the next trip, Haliburton sets that same screen to flip the match-up and Turner goes with a flare-screen, ball-screen combination that results in a mismatch. Nembhard feeds the mismatch. Turner misses the shot. That was the ball game.
It's possible that Haliburton could've been more aggressive on some of those possessions to get himself open with misdirection cuts or altering his speed as he was coming off the picks, but the reason he wasn't running the offense wasn't a product of him being too passive or Carlisle being too generous with Nembhard. It was a reaction to the exaggerated coverage from Jalen Suggs.
Otherwise, Haliburton recorded 40.845 ball screens per 100 possessions for the game. That's nearly the same as what he averaged after Buddy Hield was traded last season (43.861), as well as during the playoffs (41.165). He has the most gravity on the team, and he's a first option being guarded like a first option, which is why some of the on-ball touches are being filtered to second and third options.
That said, there have been times when Haliburton has uncharacteristically made things harder on himself than they needed to be. He shot when he should've passed and passed when he should've shot at the end of the game against Detroit. There might've been an opportunity to counter with a back-cut instead of going head on against Andre Drummond's hand activity amid the flurry of turnovers there were committed versus the Sixers, and here he arguably waits a beat too long to attack the switch, allowing the blitz to come with the clock winding down to close the third quarter in Orlando.
Of course, it's certainly telling that the Magic went switch-to-blitz against him when Suggs wasn't on the floor. Still, he typically prefers to attack switches on the perimeter with his shot while moving to his right. With the blitz coming from that direction, he has to escape to his left. Since he doesn't often find the tread to drive in those situations, that's where the Pacers previously would've had Buddy Hield blur in front of the ball so as to create some hesitation and force the big to defend the screen as the on-ball defender. If they didn't want to bring an extra body to the ball, Nesmith could've cut the stunt to relieve some of the pressure, rather than staying glued to his spot at the three-point line. Either way, a lot of what's been going on at the end of quarters and during crunch-time, as it pertains to Haliburton's level of involvement and how he's being involved, is directly related to how teams are gearing up to respond to him as an All-Star point guard, who at times, at least against exaggerated coverages in the fourth quarter, may need to move and learn to dominate like a shooting guard.
Moxy Doxy: My hot take is that the Pacers know they can bank on a free-flowing offense spamming ball screens with the ball in the hands of Tyrese Haliburton and are playing to build out their repertoire for the playoffs and we're experiencing their growing pains as we look to incorporate a number of offensive concepts to see what sticks. Is this delusional and should I be more concerned about the coaches overloading the team instead of playing to last season's strengths?
See: Above. The pick-and-roll isn't as prevalent as it used to be at a league-wide level and that was also true for the Pacers as a whole last season, but this trend of deploying Haliburton more often away from the ball and as a screener started after Hield was traded.
In fact, this very graphic has been included in several past articles.
Even when his shot isn't falling, he is the player most likely to put a bend in the defense when he isn't shooting. That means he gets plugged into more of those actions. Rather than running the pick-and-roll, he's the stack screener, for example, when in the past, that would've been Hield. In many cases, those actions are also used to spring him free against exaggerated coverages. Right now, when cross-compared to the above table, he's averaging 38.8 picks per 100 possessions. Those plays have yielded 1.000 points per chance, compared to 1.261 with Nembhard as the ball-handler, albeit against the weaker match-up, when Haliburton is also on the floor. In that way, by learning to become a better role player and creating advantages with his movement, in a similar manner to, say, Steph Curry, who he bonded with at the Olympics, it's possible that he could become an even brighter star in the long run, despite some of the current growing pains in combination with the team's collective shooting woes.
Nick Boornazian: Despite the capability of Pascal/Andrew running the offense, running less through Tyrese seems to be negatively affecting their pace, is there more to the drastic drop in pace?
As was touched on in the answer above, some teams have started deploying deliberate tactics to sap the (Pace)rs. During the playoffs, despite the cliché that the game slows down in the postseason, the average time for the Pacers to cross half-court was just 3.781 seconds, which was the fastest of any playoff team and also faster than their own rate of 4.070 during the regular season. In addition to playing pressure defense, which fed their momentum on offense, part of the reason why was because they only played a total of 18 possessions with Haliburton on the floor in the absence of both McConnell and Nembhard. If he got taken out of the play, they could still quickly advance the ball.
So far, to start this season, their average time to cross half-court with Haliburton as the bring-up ball-handler is 5.407 seconds, compared to 5.039 with Nembhard. Both are slower marks than the playoffs and last season as a whole, but they haven't played slower on average with Nembhard than Haliburton.
In that sense, while there have been a couple of possessions where the opponent has pressed up on both of them to counter for Haliburton as the inbound passer to avoid just backing off as soon as the ball goes to Nembhard and gets given back to Haliburton, it's been jarring to see some of the possessions in which Haliburton has taken the ball out and then just walked the ball up the floor to control pace without being pressed.
That's unusual by comparison to when he would normally be jumping out of his skin to get the inbounds pass and immediately heading downhill, even to the point of taking a peek over his shoulder without staring down the inbounds passer to be on the lookout for potential hit-ahead opportunities.
Not entirely sure what to make of that.
Gregg Pitts: So, to kill the Pacers fast-paced attack all someone has to do is faceguard Tyrese and the Pacers move him to the two and shut down the offense? Seems like if he's worth the money we are paying him he'd find a way to play through that effectively. Question would be is there any way to keep the pace up when someone else is handling the ball?
Yes, it was possible, and the prior example explains why it was, as do some of the other prior answers as to why the pace has been killed. As a side note to this, it doesn't explain that possession against Detroit, but there was a play against the Knicks in which Haliburton got knocked to the ground on a drive. When he got up and relocated to the corner, his shot was way short and stayed short for the rest of the game. Long before that happened he could be seen on the bench with the same back-wrap and treatment that he was wearing during the playoffs while dealing with back soreness. I'm not him and there's no way to know how he was feeling in his own body, but based on how he was moving and the fact that he only recorded four drives in that game, I'm guessing that might've had something to do with his off night -- in addition to the coverage from the Knicks and the challenges of maneuvering around the length of Mikal Bridges at the point of attack with O.G. Anunoby lurking in the background.
Teams haven't actively tagged up against the Pacers, like the Sixers did. That's a relatively new trend in the NBA. Teams also haven't blitzed the re-screen against ice coverage, like the Magic did. Also, Jalen Suggs was named to the All-Defense Second Team for a reason. And most of this has happened with several players struggling to make shots and while trying to manage an inconsistent 11-man rotation that has at times led to some wonky transition spacing. Again, not sure what to make of some of the possessions when he's walked the ball up the floor. That's out of character (at least when he isn't deliberately managing special situations). It's been four games. Give him and the team time to adjust.
Tyler Bishop: I'm sure you'll get asked a variation of this question several times, but how can the Pacers solve the conundrum of Aaron Nesmith? He's arguably the best wing defender on the roster, but opposing teams are hiding their worst defenders (or highest usage players) on him.
This was covered following the loss to the Knicks when Bennedict Mathurin didn't enter the game in the second half until there was 3:31 to play in the third quarter when the Pacers were trailing, at 81-59. Given that Nesmith was struggling to contain Jalen Brunson without the benefit of Pascal Siakam's roaming behind him, it made sense to "guard" him by forcing him to guard.
Nesmith had the entire right side of the floor to attack here, and he simply reversed the ball to Myles Turner. If he can't explode from a standstill or trust his handle to create separation, there was a case for playing Mathurin in that spot.
Or, at least take a lesson from Mathurin. This was the only possession in that game that saw Brunson being screened into the action with Haliburton as the ball-handler, even though the commotion with him peeling off to the perimeter out of the show coverage resulted in easy points.
Similar to that possession at the end of the third quarter against the Magic, go blur in front of the ball for Haliburton to reignite the action or cut to the nail to test the stunt and make a play from the middle.
He came to life with his energy toward the end of the game against Philly, but his spacing can at times just be too static and confined to either shooting or attacking closeouts in a straight-line.
Pinder: Young guys like Jarace Walker and Bennedict Mathurin are making a lot of mistakes on defense, but I think fans (myself included) would still prefer Rick to play these guys through these mistakes a bit more since it would be better for the team long term. The team would still lose this game regardless, too many mistakes in general, but when you say you need to play big then put out 3-guard lineups and Obi at center, fans will not be happy with that, unless Ben Sheppard drops 40.
My counterpoint to the second portion of this stance would be that the rebounding issues weren't that much connected to size in the loss to Philadelphia. The Sixers started Kelly Oubre Jr. (6-foot-8) and Caleb Martin (6-foot-5) at the forward positions (that's why Pascal Siakam was constantly posting), and they played Guershon Yabusele (6-foot-8), at back-up five (which is why Obi Toppin was also at nominal five). When the opposing team plays smaller, the Pacers also tend to go small (remember the series against Milwaukee?). Plus, the Pacers were plus-5 in 10 minutes when Toppin was on the floor in that game without Turner or Jackson. That wasn't really the problem.
The other point to make here is that playing an 11-man rotation is really difficult. The Pacers outscored opponents by 14.6 points per 100 possessions in the 114 minutes that Siakam logged with four bench players last season, and they never even played any of those groupings in the first two games against Detroit and New York. There's reason to always keep one or the other of Haliburton and Siakam on the floor, but in order to do that, someone else probably isn't going to play. If Jackson is at back-up five alongside Toppin in the frontcourt, then Siakam is going to have to squeeze in at the three. That means Walker would either have to play at shooting guard (in place of Mathurin), or not play. In that event, the only way to keep both Walker and Mathurin on the floor for more than a few spare minutes while also playing Siakam with the bench, would be to play Toppin at the five. And that doesn't even account for Ben Sheppard. See? This isn't easy.
Also, would just like to add that not all rotation decisions are or should be viewed as punishments. Mathurin had some very loud defensive lapses on back-to-back possessions in the first half against Philadelphia that weren't just about competing and maybe still giving up a blowby or not being tall enough to contest. He has a tendency to relax. For him to reach the ceiling of his two-way potential, they need him to reinforce the floor boards, which means there has to be some level of accountability. Still, as was laid out in the prior responses, there was a strategic reason why the Pacers needed to close with another ball-handler on the floor at the end of the game against Orlando. Meanwhile, at the other end of the floor, someone had to guard Paolo Banchero and/or be effective at rotating out of double-teams.
Remember, Siakam picked up his fourth foul with 6:56 still left to play. That meant the assignment had to go to Nesmith, and if the assignment had to go to Nesmith, then they were likely going to need to double, which means they rounded out the lineup with the players who are generally the most consistent at processing when to help and where to scramble.
For example, watch Nembhard doubling from the bottom, recovering back out to Suggs, and then sliding over yet again to take a charge. That requires a special level of feel and timing.
Granted, Anthony Black ended up making a big three from the corner to the clinch the win for Orlando against the rotating defense, but that possession should go to show the logic behind why the closing lineup was the closing lineup. They were going to have to scramble, so they went with the players who are generally most effective at scrambling and quickly covering ground without losing their place. That said, why Mathurin didn't play earlier in the second half against New York to poke at Brunson was very confusing and remains a mystery, but who plays and who doesn't play isn't always about keeping a running tally of mistakes. The context of every game is different, and if someone gets taken out for blowing a coverage or underperforming relative to other options, those decisions haven't only been exclusive to Mathurin and Walker. Mathurin played the entire fourth quarter in Detroit, and Nesmith only played 12 seconds.
That was the right choice for that game, right?
Again, balancing an 11-man rotation is HARD. T.J. McConnell only played 5:36 in Orlando. On any given night, someone either isn't going to play or isn't going to play as much. It may not be because of what they didn't do, as much as what someone else is doing or what the specific match-up calls for.
SGD: I am high on Enrique Freeman as a potential backup center. He is so active. From a non-basketball perspective, I think if he hits as a viable backup center, this would be a major hit at a cost-controlled spot long-term after an extension. But, without evidence or paying particularly close attention to him on offense, I worry that the offense may have been a little disjointed with him out there, as it seems he's a bit confused about his spot. I buy him as a 3-point shooter, but it seems he's a little lost about where he should be.
Freeman plays with a ridiculously high motor, but he can be erratic when it comes to connecting one action to the next, which was covered here following the preseason finale against Charlotte. Just as a quick example, he takes a beat too long to realize here that this was supposed to be an off-ball screen and re-screen for Cole Swider, who can be seen having to goad the Akron product to change angles.
As such, Freeman's playing time at that end of the floor wasn't always seamless (i.e. Ben Sheppard also had to direct him about what play to run on another possessions), but he doesn't have to be prodded to pursue the basketball, which certainly hasn't been universal for the Pacers to start the season.
Rafa: Post-ASB last season the current starting 5 logged more minutes together then any 5 man unit in the NBA. Last year they frequently struggled early and struggled as a finishing unit in close games. If they continue to struggle what adjustment can be made with and without changing the actually lineup?
As was documented in a deep dive on the Rick Carlisle's propensity for early timeouts, this was definitely a thing at the beginning of games last season. Here was the breakdown by quarter for the starters in terms of net rating:
First: -7.45 in 152 minutes played
Second: +9.1 in 82 minutes played
Third: +11.7 in 144 minutes played
Fourth: +14.7 in 71 minutes played
There were a number of games when they just seemed sluggish to start, particularly on defense. This season, they've been outscored by 9.1 points per 100 possessions in 22 first-quarter minutes. That's a minuscule sample size, in which they've shot 2-of-12 from three as a group. If the shooting remains that poor (it won't!), then a change might be necessary. In that event, they could try inserting Mathurin for Nesmith, for the reasons that were laid out above in the match-up against New York. That way, they would still have Nembhard at the point of attack, while providing more offensive versatility at the three-spot. When he doesn't have to trail through picks, Mathurin's on-ball defense is ahead of his off-ball defense. That said, he would have to prove that the team can outscore their defense in minutes with Haliburton, given that the Pacers are still currently below sea level over the 1574 minutes they've played together since he was drafted (-0.95).
Another option would be to swap out Nembhard for Sheppard. With Sheppard, they would still have someone to defend at the point of attack who is at least currently making some shots and never stops moving. That isn't going to help Walker get on the floor, though, and Nembhard isn't going to get many ball-handling reps playing alongside T.J. McConnell while also making room for Mathurin's usage.
The Pacers won the minutes with the current starters on the floor in every round of the playoffs, including against Boston. Give them time to adjust to some of the coverage changes that have been laid out in this post. Trust that the ball will start falling through the hoop. If those things don't happen, then there probably needs to be bigger changes than only making changes to the starting lineup.
Kyle Taylor: Attempting to lighten what I imagine will be a rather dim mailbag: It isn't just Spooky Season for the Pacers, so with Halloween around the corner, where does it rank for you as a holiday, and what popsicle pairs best with the season?
The lights are definitely starting to flicker (she typed, nervously, in a dream-like state as pace statistics from mailbag questions constantly flashed before her eyes in an infinite loop, ahhh!). In all seriousness, I'm not a huge Halloween person. After recreating the GQ photo as a promotion for the Hot Girl Basketball shirts, I thought about doing the same with my screenshot of Rick Carlisle wearing sunglasses inside at Summer League. With the way the season has started, however, I ultimately decided to avoid setting my mentions on fire no matter how fire and hilarious my Halloween costume obviously would've been. Oh, well.
As for the flavors, I'd try anything once, but I have my doubts that a pumpkin spice popsicle would be able to crack my personal power rankings, although it very well might surpass what I put myself through for this month's offering.
Speaking of which...
Patron-only Popsicle Content
Special Announcement: In case you aren't on Twitter, I announced earlier this month that Samson Folk, who contributed his time and immense talent to Basketball, She Wrote during the playoffs, is going to be joining me for more Pacers coverage throughout the season. So, to celebrate his return, I decided to break from my own very strict rules to feature an orange cream bar.
For those who may not know, the first time Samson joined me for what we'll refer to as a popcast, he brought an orange-flavored popsicle and lamented that it wasn't a creamsicle, while claiming that creamsicles are part of the -sicle family. I vehemently disagreed, as it is my firm and unfailing belief that popsicles, by definition, should not include ice-cream. Additionally, during our final show to recap the playoff run, he referred to himself as "Indiana Abe," making an allusion to the short period of time in which Abraham Lincoln lived in Indiana, just as he spent a short time covering the Pacers before returning to his mainstay of covering the Raptors.
Well, now that he's back, here's what both of those callbacks hath wrought.
Why, yes, in case you can't tell, that's me, eating an orange cream bar while posing in front of a cabin that, according to the placard, is an exact replica of the one Abraham Lincoln was born in -- albeit in Kentucky, but those are only minor details. This replica is in Indiana!
The orange cream bar (not a popsicle!) was better than expected, but I probably wouldn't repeat the experience, which hopefully doesn't foreshadow this season for the Pacers. Either way, while this is surely the last of my entries that will have anything to do with ice-cream, look forward to the first of many features throughout the season from Samson. Welcome back to him and special thanks to all of you for supporting independent writing about actual basketball while also putting up with the extra-curricular content adjacent to basketball at the end of these mailbags!
(Hey, if nothing else, at least we aren't still thinking about the pace numbers, right?)
Comments
Caitlin Cooper
Mathurin poses more of a threat than Nesmith against teams like New York and Dallas who are likely to hide their stars on the fifth starters. If they make a change to the starting lineup, it still makes sense to go there first -- IMO. That said, his biggest impact in the game against Boston was the pressure he applied in transition with his force of will and creative finishes. Boston has been very poor to start as a transition defense team. Not sure to what degree he provides gravity when he isn't scoring or shooting the ball. Will need to see more.
Jay Rigdon
This is an interesting mailbag to read post-Boston game! Especially given what we saw from Mathurin, which really made me curious as to if his potential as another perimeter player with gravity might be the biggest possible way to help Tyrese on that end of the floor.
