Basketball, She Wrote
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Pacers Mailbag: Let's get defensive & more!
🕑 Added 2024-09-28 14:47:56 +0000 UTCAnswering questions about the ceiling of the defense, potential wing targets, my favorite moments from the WNBA season, and much, much more!
By: Caitlin Cooper I @C2_Cooper
As promised, this is the final mailbag before the official start of the season! That's right, we've made it through the offseason portion of the offseason, in large part, thanks to the many deep and insightful questions that were submitted all throughout the summer.
So, without further ado and for one last time, let's mailbag!
Justin Griswold: My question revolves around what, if anything, would make the defense great? It seems like the front court is getting a brunt of the blame (rim protection, rebounding), but it seems to me the biggest issue is screen navigation on the part of the guards/wings. Before Siakam, we had a major power forward type hole and since his addition they have been guarding this position more but the defensive efficiency hasn't improved drastically. Nembhard and Nesmith are seemingly good screen navigators, but it seems like the list ends there. Is it scheme, effort, too slow, not enough size, not enough on-ball defenders, or just generally too many negative defenders (Tyrese, Siakam, Mathurin)?
First things first, expectations are probably too lofty if the benchmark for the defense is "great." This was my tweet prior to halftime of the 157-152 win over the Atlanta Hawks during the group stage of the In-Season Tournament last season, in which both teams eventually resorted to full-court trapping:
I ended up issuing a revision later in the season when they started showing some progress on that end of the floor, but I still stand by the overall thesis: the defense doesn't need to be "great," and likely won't ever be "great" with the roster as currently constructed, but they simply can't have nights, as they did at the end of February in Toronto, when they give up 33 points scored off cuts -- which, at that point in the season, was the most any team had tallied out of that particular play-type in any game. Granted, after trading for Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett, the Raptors ranked top-five in both transition frequency and off-ball screens per 100 possessions, so there is a lot of both forward momentum and side-to-side action to account for in that offense, but a lot of what went wrong for the Pacers in that game stemmed from a lack of awareness.
As I wrote in last month's mailbag, that can be difficult to project. Energy and effort can be dialed up. That much was evident last season. After all, remember all of those slow starts following the trade deadline - like when they lackadaisically gave up 147 points per 100 possessions in the first half to the Houston Rockets before eventually locking down in the third quarter and ultimately eking out a narrow, 132-129 win? That was somewhat of a trend for the starters, who got outscored by 7.45 points per 100 possessions in first quarters last season, while surrendering 115.3 points per 100 possessions, despite winning each of the other three frames, including the fourth, in which they held opponents to just 107.2 -- the equivalent of a top-five defense. Why that change in disposition was possible in the final period and not from the get-go is still somewhat of a mystery, but it bears pointing out that nearly the entire roster was picking up full-court in the playoffs. On the one hand, they logged over 400 possessions of press defense during their run to the Eastern Conference Finals, which is the most of any team in Synergy's 15-year database. That requires buy-in. On the other hand, although that tactic enabled them to maintain their offensive identity, it was also necessary for almost the entire roster to be picking up full-court in the playoffs as a mask for some of their flaws in the half-court.
In that regard, there are still some obvious roster constraints that have to be schemed around by the coaching staff, including the fact that they are still winging it against wing-sized wings. The game before the team traded for Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard, as a 6-foot-5 guard, spent most of the night guarding 7-foot power fauxward, Lauri Markkanen. Likewise, during Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals, it was also Nembhard -- and not Siakam -- who was opposite of Jaylen Brown, just as Aaron Nesmith was assigned to Jayson Tatum. To your question, Nembhard was one of the better point of attack defenders, particularly in perimeter isolation defense. Just for point of reference, among the 64 players in the NBA who defended at least 500 drives, no one allowed a lower blowby percentage than Nembhard (14.93). That said, just because he's capable of staying in front, doesn't mean he always has the length to contest in the post (see: Markkanen) or against separation (see: Jalen Brunson). In order for him to stay in his more natural role, while also keeping both Haliburton and Siakam off primary assignments, the team is either going to have to seek outside reinforcements via trade or bank on internal development from Mathurin and/or Jarace Walker.
Again, in reference to last month's mailbag, that last piece with Mathurin is tricky. As it applies to screen navigation, there's a sizable gap between him and both Nembhard and Ben Sheppard. Last season, the Pacers allowed 0.837 points per chance with Sheppard as the ball-handler defender in combination with Turner as the anchor big, compared to 1.121 when Mathurin was in place of Sheppard. Still, he's better on-ball, as he demonstrated with some inflection points against Giannis Antetokounmpo early last season, than he is off-ball -- which is where the initial question about the difficulty in projecting awareness comes into play. If everything clicks for him, or Walker's body of work starts to more aptly reflect his body size, then some of the defensive quandaries, as it applies to asking certain players to punch above their weight class, while also trying to prevent Haliburton from defending at the point of attack, would arguably be less pronounced.
Schematically, the Pacers gave up more action at the rim than any other team in the league, in part, because they started the season dogmatically defending pick-and-rolls two-versus-two, while aiming to keep themselves out of rotation as much as possible and limiting three-point attempts. Of course, that math didn't exactly pan out in the Finals of the In-Season Tournament when they "held" the Lakers to 2-of-13 shooting from three while giving up 86 points in the paint as they themselves went just 10-of-41 from deep. On the season, they ranked last in closeouts per 100 possession and went 11-23 in games when they shot below 35 percent from three, with five of the 11 wins coming after the All-Star Break. Notably, some of the "guard your yard" scheme was relaxed against certain opponents, especially as the season progressed. After trying to defend Giannis Antetokounmpo with Buddy Hield as primary, they built a three-player wall at the free throw line in early January. During the playoffs, they were brazen with allowing Pascal Siakam to flood over to the strong-side while "guarding" Josh Hart and Precious Achiuwa, and they even went so far as to help off the ball-side corners, too.
As such, it seems reasonable to expect more of that type of prudence, depending upon the opponent, at the start of next season. Even so, after finishing 26th in defense a year ago, there was clearly a reason why they went to such extremes at the end of the floor this past season, and the end result was yet another bottom-10 defense, including over just the span of games in which they had acquired Siakam (22nd).
To repeat from a prior article, one potential wrinkle would be to try incorporating zone again. After playing 437 possessions of zone during the 2021-22 season and 244 possessions of zone the following season, the Pacers only logged 11 total possessions this past season -- most of which weren't in the half-court. Just a hunch, but it seemed like the decision to move away from zone stemmed from the want to streamline and simplify the team's overall defensive package. Additionally, they ran into some trouble with Haliburton getting overpowered at the top, especially when they were attempting to morph from zone to man mid-possession on high-post touches. Either way, now that Siakam is on the roster, it might be worth it to consider playing Haliburton at the bottom of a shape-shifting 3-2 zone that transforms into 2-3 on low post touches. Without going into express details, Siakam could play in contain without the same screen navigation concerns, Turner could defend weak-side corner, and Haliburton at least wouldn't be getting hunted as often. Still, that would only be a curveball.
In summary, in case this was "too long, didn't read," the Pacers may never be "great" defensively with this current core; however, in order for them to be better and perhaps even reach the lofty standards of "mediocre," it will likely take acquiring and/or developing a silver bullet at the wing position, who can amplify whatever gains may come from a full training camp with Siakam or literal physical gains from Haliburton, more so than expecting the coaching staff to spin silver into gold.
Mitchell Harris: I wanted to know what ranking approximately would serve the Pacers well enough defensively to get their win totals at 50 games or above and be considered an elite team. We know our offense has that potential. Much discussion about being able to just make "timely" stops versus being elite at defense being enough for us to win more consistently. What is your take on this general notion of timely stops and defensive ranking needed to "get good" overall and earn some respect as a winning team. Secondly, what strategies could help us to do that?
At the risk of cutting corners (sorry, Mitchell!), in order to avoid repeating my prior response with respect to the strategy aspects of this question, let's put some numbers to this. Last season, the Pacers went 19-14 in games in which Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, and Myles Turner all played. At that win-rate (.575), they would be on pace to win between 47 and 48 games, which would've put them on the bubble of homecourt advantage last season. Granted, the rest of the Eastern Conference will surely have something to say about that as a changing variable, but the point is, when healthy (which Tyrese arguably wasn't), they were already very nearly on the cusp of being a 50-win team. And, here's the thing: They gave up 115.9 points per 100 possessions in those games -- a defensive rating that would've ranked 22nd over a full season.
For frame of reference, there were seven teams in the NBA that won 50 games last season and none of them allowed more than 115 points per 100 possessions. Among them, the Mavericks owned the worst defensive rating at 114.9. For the Pacers to reach that threshold, they would have to finish as a top-20 defense (i.e. the merely bad to mediocre range). Again, to get there without making any external roster changes, it's likely going to come down to several players making consistent incremental improvements, some of which were laid out above as well as in previous posts, rather than banking on some form of schematic alchemy.
Jeff Hasser: You have mentioned a few times that the Pacers should try to explore a zone as a concept this upcoming season. Are there certain lineups or configurations that you think the Pacers could deploy that may be particularly effective?
Don't get me started, Jeff (haha). In all seriousness, this response could be quite lengthy. To summarize, in looking around the league, I've noticed that more teams have started playing guards at the bottom of their 3-2 or 2-3 zone alignments. Miami has done this for awhile with Duncan Robinson out of their 2-3 with forward bumps. New Orleans occasionally toyed around with C.J. McCollum in the same spot, so they could unfurl the sprawling tentacles of Herb Jones and Trey Murphy at the top, and (more notably) there were even some spots when Pascal Siakam would function as the tip of the spear for the Raptors in a 3-2 with Gary Trent Jr. at the bottom under former-head coach Nick Nurse.
There would be some obvious pressure points. Again, Siakam is a big body, which means he also can be a big target when it comes to screen navigation. To combat that, they could perhaps consider implementing a strong-side show with Nembhard to impact the ball and aid Siakam in getting through the screen. Then, to borrow from the Cleveland Cavaliers, Siakam could drop from the top of the key to the restricted area, shapeshifting into a 2-3 zone, in order to provide additional protection against post-ups and baseline drives, like so.
Granted, Siakam obviously isn’t the same caliber of secondary rim protector as Mobley, but what that option gives you is the portability of his length while potentially gaining an edge in small doses by catching opponents off guard and making it more difficult for them to target Haliburton as the screener defender. Don't get it twisted. Teams will still hunt Haliburton, but it might be a worthwhile trade-off to bait certain opponents into static post-ups -- especially if Siakam is going to be lurking in the background.
There's obviously a lot more that would need to be considered (i.e. Would playing zone exacerbate the already-existing issues on the glass? Can Turner reasonably be expected to navigate corner pin-in screens? Can Siakam replicate his presence as a roamer when he isn't "guarding" Josh Hart and Precious Achiuwa?); however, if the Pacers want to find a way to keep Turner low around the basket, while preventing Haliburton from repeatedly having to show on picks and also mitigating Siakam's flaw at the point of attack, a zone wrinkle could provide them with a useful change-up, even if not necessarily an attack mechanism.
Daniel Klain: A lot of people seem to be grouping Indiana, Cleveland, and Orlando together again in terms of where teams stand in the East and roster construction. If you were a GM and had to start at square 1 in building a team would you rather have Tyrese instead of Cleveland or Orlando’s franchise stars? If you could take any role player from either of those teams and put them on the Pacers who would it be and why?
As of now, Paolo Banchero is a good but not yet great scorer. It remains to be seen whether, with the right inputs, he can be the primary offensive engine of a contender. Without relitigating to what degree the Pacers were opportunistic in the playoffs, Haliburton has already demonstrated more proof of concept with regard to shaping and maintaining a team's postseason identity than any other player on the those two rosters. Of course, he isn't flawless. He could stand to be more willing to seek friction on both ends of the floor; however, even when he isn't scoring, the Pacers scored 1.201 points per chance when he passed out of blitz coverage as the ball-handler. For context, the Celtics led the league in points per chance scored out of ball-screens last season, at 1.064 points per chance. Needless to say, while certainly not unfounded, Haliburton's deferential nature as a heliocentric playmaker was at times over-discussed. He gets the nod here, even when considering the rigmarole that's necessary to protect him on defense, which (quite frankly) Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell both certainly benefit from in the form of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley.
As for the role player, the lean is Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. There's always room for movement shooters who can defend at the point of attack on playoff rosters, and those traits, as evidenced by the separate traits of Andrew Nembhard and Buddy Hield, definitely mesh with Tyrese Haliburton. Of course, as was pointed out in this breakdown on Cole Swider, not all movement shooters are created equal. For two ball-handlers in T.J. McConnell and Tyrese Haliburton who prefer to attack to their right, KCP only sourced 31.4 percent of his usage off screens moving to his left, while shooting just 1-of-7 on those shots. Still, he was a frequent screener for Jamal Murray on right-handed drives, and the Nuggets scored a robust 1.136 points per chance on those plays. All things considered, even if he isn't completely comfortable blurring to his left, there's still reason to think he could fit "right" in.
Kyle Taylor: I remember you saying coming into the summer that you wanted to just enjoy Fever games, not write about them. What have been your 2-3 favorite moments of the WNBA season?
So, yes, this is something I talked about in the profile that Riley Eubanks wrote about me at Indy Monthly ahead of All-Star Weekend. Since doing whatever it is that you call what I do, I've found it very hard just to be a "fan" of basketball. I love what I do, and I'm very thankful to all of you for making this possible, but it can be a grind and 12 months of this type of coverage is a lot. Also, for reasons that I won't get into, my relationship with women's basketball is much different to that of what I grew up around with my dad coaching boys at the high school level. Somewhat selfishly, I've just wanted to rediscover that side of myself, along with my fandom, in private.
That said, if you will allow me turn off my analytical brain for just a moment, I would be happy to wax poetic about what that experience has been like for me. A year ago, I went to my first Fever game with my dad at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. They were playing the Seattle Storm. I wanted to watch Aliyah Boston play in person. To be honest, in retrospect, I can't tell you much about the specifics of that game. But, there are two things I vividly remember: 1) The sense of relief I felt at just being able to leisurely go buy a pretzel without being in a panic about potentially missing a possession of live-action, and 2) sitting next to my dad and being filled with nostalgia as I heard a young girl who was sitting behind me asking her dad tons of questions about what was happening during the game, just as I once did at her age. I couldn't stop smiling.
A year later, we went back. This time, to watch the Fever's big win over the New York Liberty, in which Caitlin Clark notched the first-ever triple-double by a rookie. The building was electric. To my knowledge, the crowd wasn't made aware by the PA announcer or any sort of messaging on the scoreboard that she was about to hit those markers; and yet, the fans were oh-so very aware, wholly invested in every rebound until she finally grabbed her tenth board, eliciting boisterous cheering from every corner of the stands. Again, I couldn't stop smiling, but I was also nearly overwhelmed with emotion. Not so much because of Caitlin's standout performance, although I was (of course) thrilled to see a fellow (and far more talented) Caitlin stepping into her power.
Rather, as I got up to leave and saw a line wrapped around the concourse to the team store unlike anything I've seen at any game I've attended in that building, it was more so the memories of practicing in a gym with only half the lights turned on as a teenager because my team, a girls basketball team, couldn't generate enough revenue to offset the electricity cost. As such, this is my long-winded and probably overly sappy way of saying that my favorite moment from this WNBA season was getting to witness first hand that, more and more, everyone watches women's sports.
Patrick Fagan: How many of the Pacers rotation players are likely to have better seasons this year than last and how many will drop off and not play as well in your opinion?
By the numbers, T.J. McConnell might "regress" as a scorer. After Buddy Hield was traded and Bennedict Mathurin went down due to injury, McConnell went from averaging 8.9 points per game on 55.3 percent shooting through the first 52 games of the season to 13.9 points on 56.3 percent over the last 19 games, even as his usage jumped from 21.0 percent up to 27.6 -- which was the highest on the team. If Mathurin starts out the season coming off the bench, there's reason to think that McConnell will likely return to his more natural role of wheeling-and-dealing. After all, Mathurin's usage rate swings by 6.1 percent in minutes with Haliburton (19.87) compared to without Haliburton (26.05).
On the flip side, if Mathurin looks ready to return to the starting lineup at some point, then it's possible that Aaron Nesmith could exhibit some drop-off. To a degree, that already happened during the playoffs, right? After shooting 38.8 percent from three during the regular season, Nesmith only connected on 27.8 percent of his triples in the postseason. Of those shots, more than 85 percent were without a dribble. On the whole, he can struggle to recapture his rhythm with a lateral dribble following a closeout, and with the exception of Game 7 against the Knicks, he still doesn't go to his pull-up two very often, as he only 15 total shots from that range throughout the playoffs. At this point, Nesmith is still a leg up on Mathurin both as a defender and with regard to how he jells with the starters; however, if Mathurin shows progress in either area, then it's Nesmith he should replace in that group -- not Andrew Nembhard, who seems the most primed among the young players to continue building on his momentum from last season.
Thomas: Are there any players this year who didn't get a ton of time together down the stretch that you think could complement each other well? My combo is Obi and Andrew. They didn't play a ton of minutes together in the playoffs (~100 less than Obi and TJ and ~20 less than Obi and Tyrese) but I think that there is great potential synergy between them with Andrew's crafty cat and mouse game and Obi's ability to roll, space, or cut keeping the defense off balance.
This is not exactly what's being asked, given that these two players got plenty of time together with both of them being in the starting lineup, but there could very well still be some untapped potential between Nembhard and another power forward: Pascal Siakam. Last season, Nembhard only set a total of 36 picks for Siakam. Those inverse screening actions weren't particularly high scoring for the Pacers, as they generated just 0.806 points per chance, but the benefit of that combination is that, unlike Haliburton, Nembhard isn't as likely be to guarded by top assignments. In turn, that means instead of exchanging top-flight wing defender for another top-flight wing defender, Siakam might have more of a chance to crunch mismatches. To this point, Nembhard can't match Haliburton's gravity as an off-ball shooting threat, but if he can continue to knock down those shots, then in combination with his physicality as a screener, there could be more to that pairing -- at least as far as generating favorable match-ups.
Anthony Duckworth: I just want to know about any James Wiseman analysis. Are there any things that you have seen from his game that tell you how he will succeed or struggle? And how do you think he will be coached? Which coach might spend the most time with him?
Since he's likely the only new addition from this summer with a chance to crack the rotation, Wiseman is fascinating as a low-risk flyer. After the Pacers signed him, I wrote a deep dive called, "James Wiseman and how the Pacers keep feeding their own beast" that explored a lot of what is covered in your question. Overall, for a player who needs to be fed, I still expect the Pacers, as a team with a deep collection of silver spoons at the point guard position, to help him more than he helps them; however, if either side helps the other, it's clearly still a win. Plus, if nothing else, he'll prop up the center position as a third option. That said, one area that he has an obvious advantage over Isaiah Jackson is with his size for position. Whereas Jackson can at times be more of a five who is small than a small-ball five, Wiseman is 6-foot-11 but can still run from rim to rim in transition with comparable agility.
As far as how he's coached, each member of the staff has certain players that they tend to work with. Lloyd Pierce, for example, has long been paired with Myles Turner. To this point, Wiseman has mostly shown that he needs to play in drop with the on-ball defender in hard, rearview pursuit, which will be a lot more feasible if Ben Sheppard manages to maintain his spot in the rotation. That said, although Wiseman only switched on less than five percent of the picks he defended for the Pistons last season and oftentimes required going switch-to-blitz, there were a few encouraging flashes like this, in which he absorbs the ball and then holds his own in isolation, that at least suggest he might be able to compete with Jackson for minutes in a more stable environment with the Pacers.
(Just as a side note, it would be interesting to know the splits on what Trae Young shoots against weak-hand contests versus those opposite from his shooting pocket. Of course, Wiseman is left-handed, so this is natural for him, but also highly effective -- not once, but twice!).
Joe Takayoshi: On Hardwood Knocks you talked about the need for a wing-sized wing defender who can fit into the Pacers offense. I know you have a no fake trade mandate, but I am curious, what current players fit into this mold?
Well, since I didn't specify otherwise in the prompt, I'll put a momentary hold on the mandate to say the following: Prior to New York's bombshell trade for Karl-Anthony Towns, I would've said that if the Minnesota Timberwolves needed to cut salary next summer and want to traded defense for offense, Jaden McDaniels would've been really, really interesting as a switchable, 6-foot-10 menace. Granted, he's a wildly inconsistent floor spacer, and his shooting touch abandoned him last season, as he shot just 29 percent on above-the-break threes. Given that Siakam barely cracked 35 percent on above-the-break threes with the Pacers last season, it's possible that there might not have been as much elbow room available for the starting lineup if both of them had been on the same team. That said, McDaniels is smooth inside the arc with a compelling mix of length and touch when he gets downhill. With the Pacers, he likely wouldn't have needed to be as anchored to the corners as was necessary for a Minnesota team that started two bigs while also featuring two-way star Anthony Edwards.
As has been the case for Siakam, Turner also could've spaced around McDaniels, perhaps opening opportunities for the lanky wing as the roll-man or to attack one-pass away. Likewise, when the ball gets entered to Siakam at the elbow, McDaniels could've taken up residence in the dunker's spot, unleashing his athleticism around the basket while also requiring a wing defender to protect the rim. Plus, it begs pointing out that the Pacers have seen shooting development from several players on the roster, including Nembhard, Toppin, and Walker, which suggests the same might've turned out to be the case for McDaniels. More than anything, though, he does stuff like this:
That's from 2021, and not only does he deny the get-back to Jalen Brunson at the elbow, he tags the screener, stays on balancing closing out to Brunson, switches onto Tim Hardaway Jr., plugs the subsequent driving lane for Brunson, and then closes out yet again, only this time contesting the shot in the corner from Hardaway. But wait, there's more! On the tap out, notice how he scrams out the mismatch and then lingers in the paint, exposing the rim as he steps up to the stop the ball before recovering to get a hand on the ball at the basket.
Again, that was in 2021, when he was still only 21 years old. (sighs) He's so, so good. See?!? This is why I don't write about improbable hypotheticals. A new season is upon us! It's time to live in the present and determine what the young players on the existing roster can do before gazing too far into the indeterminate future. As such, this is me, asking that you don't get too distracted by those very tantalizing clips, while also permanently reinstating the fake trade embargo! You're welcome!
Patron-only Popsicle Content
Back in August, the Phoenix Suns decided to roast the other 29 teams in the NBA with their schedule release tweet, which used memes for every fanbase. In case you didn't know, there is corn in Indiana. Very original, wouldn't you say?
Well, in an effort to be equally corny, I decided to take to the streets and go out for a popsicle (Outshine Grape, to be exact) with a large crop of the Pacers fandom. Turns out, when asked whether last season was a fluke, they really gave me an earful.
We all had an a"maize"ing time, and I hope the same applies to all of you -- the actual fans of the Pacers, who I remain ever-so grateful to for supporting Basketball, She Wrote (please don't change your mind after reading all of these corn puns. Thanks again!).
Comments
Thomas
Thanks for the answer! Inverted Siakam screens with Nemb is a really interesting idea. I hadn't really considered the possibility but if Andrew can keep improving his shooting that could be really fun. Letting savvy players make plays together is usually a good recipe.
Caitlin Cooper
A lot of teams did some interesting things with zone last season. Boston, of course, ran the 2-1-2 with Jrue calling audibles in the middle, and Utah even played some 4-1 with Kessler hovering around the paint. The Jazz are an interesting case study in that they were terrible in man but effective in zone while playing A LOT of it.
Caitlin Cooper
Hahah, nothing triggered. I've mentioned it enough to warrant an explanation. I can just struggle to be brief in my explanation. That could've been an entire article, but it's only hypothetical, as of now. We'll see if they go to it. I know they really wanted to streamline and simplify the system last season in order to build better habits, which they did in some respects.
Caitlin Cooper
Of course!
Jeff Hasser
Didn't mean to trigger something with the Zone question, but you kept teasing it in your previous conversations! Thanks as always, especially as we are desperate for Pacers content with the season around the corner. It appears like last season was a lot of the coaching staff learning what doesn't work, so excited to see them try some new wrinkles on defense.
Kyle Taylor
Really interesting ideas with the zone! Combining multiple tactics from other teams as you describe would be very intriguing. It would require a degree of attentiveness, cohesiveness and intensity the team didn’t demonstrate consistently on that end, but I like it a lot. Would be interesting to compare the versions with and without Myles.
Anthony Duckworth
Thank you Caitlin
