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Centering on the center options for the Pacers
🕑 Added 2024-09-11 12:30:02 +0000 UTCEvaluating the pros and cons of playing with multiple centers or no centers
By: Caitlin Cooper I @C2_Cooper
It wouldn't be nearing the start to another season for the Pacers without discussing/debating the potential options at center. From the purgatory that was staggering Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis to the many trips taken around the rotation carousel by Isaiah Jackson and Jalen Smith, there always seems to be something left to question at that position -- in large part, because it's difficult to play two large players at the same time, which means there are fewer minutes to go around for one spot than there are options. The same will likely apply to next season. Turner is the obvious starter, with Pascal Siakam by his side at the four. From there, Obi Toppin will likely enter for Siakam and sop up some minutes next to Turner, but what happens next? Will Isaiah Jackson finally start out with sole possession of the back-up five spot, or will he face competition from James Wiseman? Is it possible that Siakam will re-enter for Turner, with Toppin once again moonlighting at the five against certain match-ups? Will there be any consideration for playing double-big, as was the case last season for a time with Turner and Smith?
Let's dig into the potential options and combinations, while also giving a hat tip to the following mailbag question, which partially served as the inspiration for this exercise.
Bryce Carroll: I am curious how much run Isaiah Jackson received with Myles last season, how effective that was, and what that could look like this coming year with Pascal potentially at the 3 for short spurts. Going further, would you expect to see more double center lineups as they try to learn how to utilize James Wiseman? Myles mentioned on the Club 520 podcast with Jeff Teague that the team was too small, and the addition of Wiseman would help with that and rebounding.
Turner-Wiseman
Here's the quote that question is referencing:
"I think one, we gotta be a better rebounding team, we're still kinda small," Turner answered on the Club 520 podcast when asked what the Pacers need to add, excluding players, to get over the hump in the Eastern Conference. "We just got James Wiseman so that helps a bit you know I mean he’s like 7-1 but outside of me, Isaiah Jackson was 6-9, Jalen Smith at the time was 6-9, 6-10… So we just to have more frontcourt presence, especially off the bench. And also just vets, bro."
To be honest, that line of thinking is a little bit difficult to follow. As in, is he listing rebounding, frontcourt depth, and veteran presence as separate areas of need? Or, is he implying that the Pacers were a poor rebounding team, specifically, because the second unit was undersized and/or because they need to have the flexibility to play multiple bigs at once? In his defense, the only players on the roster last season who were listed at 6-9 or taller were himself, Smith, Jackson, and Toppin -- all of whom logged minutes at center, albeit in varying amounts. Still, it's difficult to point the finger solely at positional size for the team's rebounding woes. Just think back to Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals, when the Knicks made the adjustment to start Deuce McBride in place of Precious Achiuwa alongside Jalen Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo, Josh Hart, and Isaiah Hartenstein. On the night, despite going smaller, New York grabbed 20 offensive rebounds. Granted, Hartenstein pulled down 12 all by himself, but only two of his tally came with Achiuwa on the floor, and he had already grabbed five in the first seven minutes of the game before Turner had even been subbed out.
Some of those second chances were earned when Turner was rotating to the rim and couldn't be expected to both contest the shot and collect the miss at once, and there were also some spots where they were more vulnerable as a result of late-switching. If Nesmith gets clipped, then when the ball breaks the free throw line, he has to run the seam and crack down on the big as the screener, which means a mismatch is automatically being created under the basket.
Some of that can probably be pinned on Haliburton. He embraced physicality more as the season went on as far as holding the line with his show coverage, but it would be preferable there if he actually diverted Brunson's driving angle, so that Nesmith could recover and perhaps not also get slammed by Hartenstein on the second screen, as well.
Still, stuff like this happened.
That doesn't have anything to do with the defensive scheme or being undersized. The Pacers had more size on the floor than the Knicks, and Hartenstein somehow got inside position on a missed free throw. Needless to say, that also doesn't have anything to do with who the backup center is, nor is it clear exactly what difference going big with James Wiseman would make in either situation. In the first clip, he isn't going to be chasing Brunson through screens, so the same mismatch is still likely going to materialize under the basket. Likewise, unless Wiseman is going to replace Turner on the side of the lane with Hartenstein, he isn't going to prevent that missed box-out from happening while standing in the same spot as Siakam next to DiVincenzo.
Last season, the Pacers played 177 minutes with Turner on the floor at the same time as Jalen Smith and they gave up more offensive rebounds (40) than they grabbed (38). Admittedly, those numbers are obviously affected by chances, and the Pacers posted a slightly higher effective field-goal percentage (61.9 percent) than their opponents during those minutes (60.1 percent) while also committing 48 turnovers compared to 44. As such, although they didn't exactly manufacture stops in bulk, they did ultimately finish with a higher offensive rebounding rate (23.9) than their opponents (19.9). That said, there were games at the offensive end of the floor in which the pairing wasn't particularly feasible against cross-matches.
Just take a look at this possession from a January win over the Milwaukee Bucks and notice how, with Giannis Antetokounmpo switching out to the ball and Brook Lopez hanging back in the paint, Smith robotically pivots into a dribble hand-off despite the fact that Tyrese Haliburton is motioning for the ball to be entered from the wing to Turner against the mismatch.
As a result, Lopez has time to kick the smaller defender out of the paint, which squanders the size advantage. Less than a minute later, Smith created nearly the same issue again. This time, driving into the path of the mismatch without maintaining a live dribble.
Then, there was also this possession, in which he appeared as though he had stepped into a pit of quick sand and lost the ability to move with the ball until finally he attempted the shot that the defense was daring him to take.
Put simply, this is a big part of the reason why the Pacers traded for Pascal Siakam, who (as you might recall) amassed 73 points on 64.5 percent shooting over Games 1 and 2 of Indiana's first-round series with Milwaukee while predominantly being checked by Lopez. During the regular-season meeting in January, Smith played a total of 11 minutes with Turner and only two after halftime. With all due respect to the summer workout footage of Wiseman knocking down corner threes in an empty gym, if that's how the Bucks were defending Smith, amid a season in which the Maryland product shot 42.4 percent from three on 2.4 attempts per game, then Indiana's newest addition to the center rotation, who has made a total of 16 threes in his career, probably isn't going to move the needle -- especially since he also only attempted 24 shots last season following two dribbles. Overall, given that the Pacers went away from playing Turner with Smith against a bigger frontline in Giannis and Lopez, it doesn't seem likely that Wiseman, on a team that now has Siakam, would get a similar look unless he's able to alter what type of looks he gets on defense.
Turner-Jackson
Most of that also applies to Jackson, who shot 0-of-12 on jump-shots last season in his third year as a pro. For his career, Jackson has played a grand total of 16 minutes with Turner. During those rare sightings, he likewise tends to draw the cross-match against opposing fives, which mainly results in him being deployed as the roll-man with Turner spaced to the corner.
According to Second Spectrum, the Pacers have scored 0.941 points per chance with Jackson as the screener over the last three seasons, compared to 0.905 with Jackson as the screener when Turner is also on the floor. Of course, in only 16 minutes of action, that only accounts for a total of 27 picks. Even so, the Pacers scored 1.050 points per chance with Turner as the screener last season. If he's going to be marginalized in the offense, there needs to be a compelling reason for doing so, whether defensively or, for example, in favor of everything Siakam provides as a post/isolation scorer and facilitator. With regard to the former point, there are some compelling possessions at the other end of the floor, in which Jackson defends at the five and switches on ball-screens, keeping Turner low and around the basket.
After all, Jackson doesn't just absorb the ball there, he also creates a no-fly zone in the paint. Still, make note of the after effects. With Andrew Nembhard veering into Jonas Valanciunas as the screener, Turner has to rotate to scram out the mismatch -- which effectively just creates another mismatch, as Nembhard then scurries out to Zion Williamson. That's why, against this same match-up last season, Siakam could be seen defending against Jonas Valanciunas in drop, despite the fact that he is more effective as a switch defender.
In that same scenario, if the Pacers played Siakam, Jackson, and Turner at the same time, then Jackson could guard Valanciunas and switch out to Ingram, with Turner off-ball switching onto Valanciunas on the roll, as Siakam takes Zion in the corner. In effect, it would be a triple-switch. Then again, it begs pointing out that Turner, rather than Siakam, was assigned to Zion in the first place, which should probably raise eyebrows as to whether playing all three of them at once would be worth the sacrifice in shooting. To that point, even when disregarding Turner, Siakam and Jackson only played 104 minutes together during the regular season and the Pacers got outscored by 1.6 points per 100 possessions with both of them on the floor together. Those numbers improved in the playoffs, as they managed to stay above sea-level with a net rating of plus-0.44 in 74 minutes of action, but that was with T.J. McConnell at the wheel, outrunning a depleted Knicks team with his ability to make sense of spacing that otherwise doesn't make sense with his unpredictable driving angles. Will the same be the case once more if the usage shifts back to Bennedict Mathurin, especially after McConnell gets off the ball? It's possible the Pacers won't stagger Siakam with Jackson, but there's certainly reason to wonder.
As such, if the Pacers want to play bigger in spots, it seems more likely that they would attempt to do so in groupings with Toppin or maybe even Walker joining Siakam and Turner/Jackson as opposed to Siakam-Turner-Jackson. Following halftime of their home win over the Suns, when Devin Booker scored 62 points on 37 shots, Toppin started the second half in place of Buddy Hield, with Nesmith shifting up to the two. That adjustment isn't going to be replicable against every opponent (i.e. if Toppin had started in the Eastern Conference Finals against Boston, either he or Haliburton would've been responsible for guarding one of Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown); however, with Nembhard and Nesmith taking Booker and Bradley Beal, Toppin could hang with Grayson Allen, as Siakam matched-up opposite of Kevin Durant with Turner naturally assigned to Jusuf Nurkic. Siakam doesn't often guard the opposing team's best wing option, but he has a better chance of bothering players with his length, who, like Durant, prefer to look for their jumper, then when he has to try to stay in front of quicker players.
On the night, the Pacers finished plus-five in eight minutes with Toppin at the three alongside Siakam and Turner. Notably, their playing time together was sparse, as the Suns eventually countered with Durant at the five, which led to both teams closing without a center on the floor.
Siakam-Toppin
With the exception of that particular match-up against Durant, when the Pacers play small, Toppin is typically the player responsible for guarding the opposing team's five. Altogether, the Pacers outscored opponents by 9.1 points per 100 possessions in 97 minutes with Toppin at nominal center in lineups with Siakam during the regular season, and that number likewise stayed solid in the playoffs (+4.05) over a comparable size of playing time (94), but it was largely propped up by just that... outscoring opponents. Prior to the postseason, the Pacers surrendered 122.3 points per 100 possessions when that pairing was on the floor, with opponents shooting 75.8 percent at the rim. For point of reference, the Wizards gave up the highest opponent field-goal percentage at the rim last season, allowing opponents to convert 71.3 percent of their looks from point-blank range. Needless to say, these lineups are largely dependent on fighting fire with fire, which is why they're mainly deployed against spread lineups, such as when the Bucks went small during the first-round of the playoffs with either Bobby Portis or Danilo Gallinari playing at the five.
Then again, they also won the minutes when Brook Lopez was on the floor, as they were overwhelming with their tempo and pace, despite the fact that there were times where they somehow doubled the post (twice!) without ever actually doubling the post, at least not with any sort of force or intention.
The other pressure point, which was evident during the Eastern Conference Finals, came when the Celtics were targeting Toppin. With 3:54 to play in the fourth quarter, Indiana attempted to go small with Obi Toppin at the five next to Pascal Siakam. For the next two-and-a-half minutes, the Pacers were held scoreless, and Boston converted two shots -- both with Toppin attempting to defend in space. Notably, Siakam was tethered to the ball-side corner, which meant the secondary rim protector under the basket was a guard.
As counter-intuitive as it may sound, if the Pacers had it to do over again, it would be interesting to see if they would be willing to chance having Siakam jump switch onto the ball from the corner with Toppin peeling off to Horford or Jrue. At any rate, even though he was managing a bad back, Turner reentered for the last 1:09 and effectively ended up getting the brunt of more of the same.
Still, when confronted by Milwaukee's small-ball and Boston's stronger defensive foundation, it's telling that the Pacers were more willing to chance relying on their offense, whether pulling Smith and Jackson for much of the first-round series against the Bucks or trying to stave off elimination in the Eastern Conference Finals with Toppin as the only back-stop. For all of those reasons, it seems more likely that the Pacers would sooner find spot minutes to either play with two forwards, in Toppin and Siakam, alongside a single center or with no centers than with two centers. It might not be sustainable over a larger sample size or against every match-up, and it probably won't solve their rebounding woes, but at least there might be a means of mitigating for those woes with "hot girl basketball" while crossing their fingers that internal development from players like Mathurin and Walker might lead to better scheme execution and fewer holes on the glass. Otherwise, as turned out to be the case in Game 5 against the Knicks, playing taller than their opponent doesn't necessarily guarantee that they'll play bigger, regardless of how many players or back-up centers they have of a certain height.
Comments
Chris Underhill
Always appreciate your insight
