Basketball, She Wrote
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Mailbag: Are the Pacers being overlooked in the East?
🕑 Added 2024-08-31 15:00:07 +0000 UTCPlus, stats that don't exist but should, my favorite memory of playing basketball, and what the realistic outlook should be for the Pacers this season
By: Caitlin Cooper I @C2_Cooper
As promised, this is the patron-only mailbag for August. Special thanks to everyone who sent in questions, as there was plenty for me to chew on, ranging from nerdy stuff about stats to a very personal story about my background growing up around basketball.
Without further ado, let's mailbag!
Kyle Taylor: I've heard you complain in the past that you feel assists are an incomplete stat and don't fully capture what defines a good passer. If you could design a better box score for a player's single game performance, what stats would you want to know? What aspects of the game do you think cannot be captured by box score/advanced stats?
One obvious problem with assists as a stat is that the player who receives the pass has to make the shot for the passer to get credit. This creates plenty of situations where the pass might be delivered with absolute precision, but the ball simply doesn't go through the hoop or even make it to the hoop. For example, Tyrese Haliburton shouldn't be viewed as a less effective playmaker simply because Jalen Smith blew this behind-the-back pass, right? After all, this is a picture perfect example of how Haliburton throws the ball into space and gathers into his Pinoy step to throw off the defender's timing by incorporating a shot fake as he glides to the basket.
Still, the end result is a fumble from Smith, which means in addition to not getting marked down as an assist, it also doesn't count as a "potential assist," which at least accounts for all direct scoring opportunities as opposed to just makes. Of course, not even all "potential assists" are created the same. As some of you may know, my friend Samson Folk at Raptors Republic is known for cataloguing what he terms as "advantage assists," which he defines as those in which the passer actively bends the defense or generates a better shot with some sort of creative pass. Put simply, there's a difference between passing from a standstill to a player who is flying off a stagger and manipulating the weak-side tagger to feed the roll-man through a tight passing window. Haliburton is among the very best in the league at the latter, but there were certainly games last season in which he racked up assists that weren't necessarily advantaged. For example, he made this play to simply find Buddy Hield along the arc, without collapsing the defense, on several occasions during the November game against the Raptors.
On the night, that means the percentage of his assists that were advantaged wouldn't be as high, which was at times a criticism of Haliburton during his impactful start to the season due to the fast-paced nature of the offense (i.e. more possessions means more opportunities to pile up assists, including those that don't require him to create an advantage), but that's sort of missing the Occam's Razor of it all, right? Last season, the Pacers shot 56.3 percent during the first eight seconds of the shot clock, compared to 51.1 percent during the middle eight seconds of the shot clock and 43.9 percent during the last eight seconds of the shot clock. As such, given that earlier shots in transition hold more value, the simplest answer -- being to quickly advance the ball -- is quite obviously the best. In that regard, just because the factory that is Indiana's spacious offense may not always require Haliburton to display a high degree of difficulty on every pass, certainly doesn't mean that the player who completed a self alley-oop jump pass isn't capable of conjuring magic. Plus, it bears pointing out that not every point guard can muster playing at that pace for an entire game, let alone a whole season.
Meanwhile, not even advantage assists can fully capture the degree to which Haliburton thinks the game, especially as it pertains to his ability to anticipate what's about to happen next. Here, for example, he nixes what would've been a wide screen from Myles Turner for Hield to instead motion for a down screen from Turner for Aaron Nesmith, thereby involving Jalen Brunson in the action while creating a delayed, and also confused, ball-screen coverage.
Most of that is happening from a standstill. He isn't attacking downhill or throwing a live-dribble pass with his off-hand, but he proactively re-arranged the pieces on the floor to exploit the defense with a long pass. Again, he's one of the best in the world at reading and shifting help defenders. There's some tracking data that reflects this. According to Second Spectrum, Haliburton ranked third in total volume of passes for no-dribble layups, trailing only Nikola Jokic (316) and Luka Doncic (377). As a whole, the league posted an effective field-goal percentage of 69.9 percent on no-dribble layups compared to 55.9 following at least one dribble. Needless to say, those are high-value shots. Additionally, he also ranked among the top-five in combined attacking and kick-out passes per 100 possessions. Those numbers do more to capture playmaking impact than assists per game, which (again) is reliant on the shot-maker. If there's anything to add, it would be interesting to see tracking data on shooting pocket accuracy. As in, how far does the shooter have to reach or adjust to load their shot. Also, maybe a metric for no-look accuracy, or passing a player open?
Still, as was written in a prior article that touched on this topic during the season, "the numbers of recording back-to-back 20-20 games say (Haliburton) is doing something special, but they don't fully reflect the special quality of his 20/20 vision."
Aside from assists, both box-score and advanced stats are also still fairly lacking with regard to defense. There should be a number for how often a player gets hunted or called up into action. Also, in addition to defensive field-goal percentage at the rim, which already exists, maybe incorporate tracking data to show how often rim protectors prevent shots at the rim or deter ball-handlers? lt would be tricky, but a measure showing the average distance of pick-up points or where a post-up starts would also be meaningful (i.e. who is the most effective at loading up in the gaps to force Giannis Antetokounmpo to gather or which defenders make it most challenging for Joel Embiid to establish low-post position). It isn't quantifiable, but how often the ball gets forced into the hands of weaker opposing players would be fascinating, as well.
Needless to say, all of this nerdy summer dreaming could go on for awhile, but that's my wish list as of now.
Dan Burton: I have one fun question (if you haven't answered it yet) about Hali's Olympic experience. I saw that the Pacers brass encouraged him to take 'one thing' from every US teammate. What is 'one thing' you would like to see Hali incorporate from one of his Olympic teammates over the summer?
The obvious answer is probably some combination of LeBron's durability, Steph's physicality as a screener, and Devin Booker's scalability. To a certain extent, it doesn't matter how much Haliburton tangibly improves in other areas if he isn't on the court or is a shell of himself while trying to manage a lingering injury. Assuming he can remain healthy, however, there is certainly something to be said for being able to remain a threat and star as a role player when he doesn't have the ball, especially when he's being face-guarded and more of the offense naturally has to tilt to either T.J. McConnell or Andrew Nembhard as a primary ball-handler. Plus, as the best movement shooter on the roster, there are times when Haliburton needs to be able to sandwich his defender as the screener without giving up ground or bend the defense with his gravity, just as was oftentimes Steph's responsibility for Team USA.
That said, the most impactful trait for Haliburton to acquire as it pertains to addressing both his and the team's biggest weakness would arguably be Jrue Holiday's ability to absorb a bump at the point of attack. Here, for example, the 15-year veteran withstands the gentle nudge from Kyrie Irving without getting pushed into the screen. Then, after turning and sprinting to level off the ball, he maintains his balance yet again despite taking another hit and swiping for the steal.
For Haliburton, he typically either isn't playing close enough to the ball for a shoulder bump to be necessary, or he gets knocked directly into the screen and isn't likely to get back in the play. Notably, this is (ahem) Alex Caruso -- not Kyrie Irving.
Remember, Haliburton doesn't generally defend at the point of attack, but some teams started funneling more on-ball reps to his man late in the season in order to force him to fight through screens. Granted, not every opponent has the requisite personnel to justify siphoning pick-and-roll usage from their top creator, but the fact that Haliburton tends to get stashed on low-usage wings can be problematic when the wings aren't low usage. During the Eastern Conference Finals, for example, he ended up giving up strength to Holiday because he wasn't going to be assigned to either Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown. If he was sturdier at the point of attack, he could've taken on Derrick White, with Nembhard and Nesmith drawing the assignments against Tatum and Brown, so that Siakam could match-up with Holiday without being pressed to stick with Brown's agility. Tellingly, that's exactly what the assignments turned out to be in Game 4, when Ben Sheppard was starting in place of Haliburton.
More than likely, opponents are still going to screen Haliburton into the action if for no other reason than to purposefully wear on his impact and pacing at the other end of the floor. Still, just as he started to make some strides with his literal strides as the screener defender, stepping above the level of the screen and holding the line to avoid giving up mismatches, he could certainly stand, in the same vein as Jrue Holiday, to either withstand more contact at the point of attack or turn and sprint whenever his slender build dictates that he gets overpowered.
We Gon See: What are reasonable expectations on improvement and results?
Tyrese Haliburton isn't going to pull a Freaky Friday and suddenly swap frames with Jrue Holiday, but it's easy to see the difference that added functional strength could make for both him and the defense as a whole. Of course, that's something that also, quite literally, can be seen, and will be readily apparent from the get-go, if developed, ahead of training camp. It's much trickier, as was laid out in response to the prior question about "stats that don't exist but should," to quantify or project intangibles like feel and processing speed. For example, there were games last season when it seemed as though the dial was starting to turn on Bennedict Mathurin's off-ball awareness. Nothing comes of his recognition here, but it's notable that he's alert and actively motioning to scram T.J. McConnell out of this mismatch under the basket by attempting to off-ball switch while the ball is on the opposite side of the floor.
In other games, however, he could be seen in that same position against the same opponent, not even attuned to the fact that his man had cut, let alone that he was supposed to switch or where either player was located.
It's possible to flip the switch on effort. It's less clear whether the same can be said for awareness. To that point, Mathurin is a critical swing piece for next season. If everything starts to click for him, as far as his overall attentiveness on defense and ability to make quick decisions out of random offense, then there's a real chance that, with his physical tools and ability to access shots in a way that can't be replicated by anyone else on the roster, he could displace Aaron Nesmith in the starting lineup and possibly move the needle as to the still-existing needs of the team. Overall, in the same way that it's difficult to know how reasonable it is to expect that from Mathurin, it's also difficult to set reasonable expectations for the team, especially when a lot seems to depend on getting a feel for the unpredictability of his feel.
Patrick Fagan: I’ve seen the Pacers usually picked somewhere about 5, 6, or 7 in the East. Are people just overlooking the Pacers or is this legit in your opinion?
Some of this seems to be stemming from conflating the playoffs with the regular season. It's reasonable to ask whether some of the adjustments the Pacers made during the postseason, such as deploying Pascal Siakam to roam from Josh Hart and Precious Achiuwa, would've been feasible if their competition was fully healthy. Of course, there's also no way of knowing what other adjustments the Pacers would've made if their competition was fully healthy. None of which mentions the fact that they, themselves, were not fully healthy. Admittedly, there's no denying that they caught some breaks along the way of advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals, but they still outscored opponents when Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam were on the floor together in every round of the playoffs, including against Boston, posting a net rating of 3.62 in 53 minutes played. Meanwhile, the Pacers had the highest scoring offense per 100 possessions during the playoffs, and they also still posted the fastest offense, at 11.6 seconds per possession compared to 11.1 seconds during the regular season. Don't get it twisted. This isn't meant to relitigate whether their playoff run was a fluke. Rather, it's to point out that, if their identity largely held up during the playoffs against exaggerated game plans, then why wouldn't the same be the case during the regular season -- especially if (crosses fingers) Haliburton actually stays healthy and Siakam is fully acclimated to his new team?
As it was, the Pacers posted a .575 win percentage, going 19-14, in games with Haliburton, Siakam, and Myles Turner all available. If that holds, then based on last season's standings, they would be on the bubble for homecourt advantage, just behind the Cavs, who finished in fourth with a .585 win rate, albeit while managing plenty of their own injury strife. Still, Cleveland scored just 100 points per 100 possessions in a series they won against Orlando. For them, the focus needs to be on raising their ceiling under new head coach Kenny Atkinson, which means they might try some things during the regular season, such as experimenting with Evan Mobley's self-creation or toying with other non-Mitchell or non-Garland on-ball initiators that could pay dividends in the long-term, though not necessarily in the immediate.
Likewise, teams such as the Bucks (and maybe also the Sixers) can't afford to risk not making it to the finish line. Remember, Milwaukee has played at least part of each of the last two postseasons without Giannis in the lineup. After trading for Damian Lillard and maxing Paul George, both of those teams may need to prioritize scheduled rest during the regular season. To be fair, Haliburton being healthy is also a critical component for the Pacers, but that likely won't come from load management, as much as managing his minutes with the roster's already existing depth that also feeds into their playstyle. All of which is to say that, in attempting to prove they aren't a fluke while playing an exhausting brand of basketball for opponents, the Pacers don't have as many conflicts of interest as it pertains to maximizing winning during the regular season.
Lastly, although they didn't make any big, splashy moves, like the Sixers or Knicks, the Pacers are still in position to get better, either via internal development or a potential consolidation trade. Until they resolve some of their issues on the defensive end, it's certainly fair not to mention the Pacers as a surefire contender, but it seems overly dismissive of their depth and the overall potency of the offense to entirely write them off from potentially competing for homecourt advantage, even if they ultimately get edged out while also improving.
Professor Airball: Unrelated to basketball questions, any chance of getting Basketball, She Wrote long sleeve shirts?
At the risk of yet another shameless plug in a long series of shameless plugs (sorry!), this isn't the first time this question has been asked, so it makes sense to go ahead and answer it publicly. For anyone interested, all of the Basketball, She Wrote designs at teepublic are also available as long sleeve shirts. To choose that option, pick the design you want and then scroll down to the bottom of the page, where you'll find a menu of other products. Once there, select the "adult apparel" tab and then browse through the options at your leisure.
As you'll notice, some of the designs also have options for crewneck sweatshirts, tank tops, and hoodies. I wore a "pretty girls can guard, too" sweatshirt during a mailbag video last March, and there's also a picture of me sporting a "hot girl basketball" tank top while enjoying a popsicle last month. My apologies again for this extended advertisement. Teepublic's interface isn't the most user-friendly when it comes to searching for other options. Even I was surprised to learn that they apparently offer hats now. They were very effective at shielding me from the sun during my version of Summer League back in July.
Viva Las Indiana, amirite? Alright, that's enough (she said sensing that a stage-prop shepherd's hook was about to pull her away from typing her own mailbag).
KF: What is your favorite memory of playing basketball?
Honestly, that particular day pictured above was actually quite pleasant. My sister who wishes to remain anonymous and I were waiting on our mom at a medical appointment and we decided to kill some time going for a walk and stopping at that court mural. My sister didn't play competitive basketball, but she has a good eye for taking photographs and decided to snap a few for me. My 9-year-old nephew was also with us. He can't play contact sports for health reasons, but he was intrigued by the colorful ball and asked if he could try. He likes watching Tyrese Haliburton and occasionally takes an interest in the Pacers, mainly because he takes an interest in me, but we've never actually hooped together, which has as much or more to do with me as him.
Otherwise, although it probably sounds strange, my favorite memory of playing basketball is when I decided to stop playing basketball. As long-time listeners to my now-defunct podcast at Indy Cornrows might remember, my dad coached high school boys basketball for over a decade, and I always wanted to tag along to his practices and open gyms, which were typically very early in the morning. My high school has a hangar style gym, and at the time, it would usually take awhile for the lights to turn on, but there was one light that would always shine down on the main goal. While my dad was getting everything ready for practice, he would let me shoot around at that goal. On that day, that particular setting was very fitting as to how I was feeling about basketball. Everything else was dark, but under that one light I could just focus on me and why I loved basketball in the first place. I won't go into detail about why I stopped playing, but there was freedom in saying goodbye and also the familial aspect of my dad being there -- just like he always has been, with the two of us sharing in this thing that we've long enjoyed but also giving each other the space to enjoy it separately while still rooting for each other.
I knew that basketball would never be the same for me as a player (i.e. that day with my nephew at our silly summer league is a rare sighting of me testing what I can still do with a ball), but I knew I wasn't ready for basketball to stop being part of my life. I still went to my dad's practices. I still wanted to go on scouting trips. And, wherever two or more coaches were gathered, I still wanted to soak up as much knowledge as I could. I didn't know that basketball and I would find each other again, with me writing this blog, but I'm sure glad that we did. Basketball is a team sport, but some of my best memories, if you can call them that, have always been very isolating, whether shooting at a dimly lit goal or sitting alone, absent from the group chats and slack channels that abound, while typing this mailbag. That's why, as someone who has always been self-motivated, I'm very grateful to all of you for helping me to keep the lights on, not only with this blog but also with the joy that I felt for the first time in a long time, when my nephew said, "Can I try doing that with you, CC."
Patron-only popsicle content
As strange as it seems to jump from that very poignant moment with my nephew to my usual aside about popsicles, I am who I am and the mailbag must go on. So, awkward segues aside, cast your eyes on this blue-and-gold masterpiece!
As some of you may remember, when I launched Basketball, She Wrote in February of 2022, my sister who wishes to remain anonymous and I included a popsicle recipe, called "A Taste of the Blue-and-Gold." During the playoffs, after the Pacers got their first win in Game 2 against the Bucks, she was kind enough to bring those hand-crafted creations to life once again for one of my bonus mailbag segments while also poking fun at herself. Well, with all due respect to my sister, the people trust me to be upfront and honest when it comes to popsicle reviews and these, which I ordered from the Hyppo Gourmet (aka my favorite online popsicle shop), are an upgrade on the blue-and-gold (fine, purplish) genre. Rather than blueberry lemonade, they are a delightfully tangy combo of blueberry pineapple that, in a way, are symbolic of what this season will hopefully be for the Pacers -- an improvement on last season with more flavor balance, as far as cutting some of the sweetness, just as needs to be the case with the defense in respect to the offense. Also, checkout the background of that photo and notice that I'm wearing a t-shirt that pictures a Phoenix rising up out of the ashes with a popsicle in its talons. Maybe, there's also some symbolism there with coming back better than ever, who knows?
Ok, that's a stretch, but that shirt is still obviously sick. And no, (in a callback to the prior extended advertisement) this isn't an ad (I promise!), I just really like popsicles and see it as my solemn duty, for the tens of you that read this for the cross-over content on popsicles and the Pacers, to shed light on what's out there by being a light for the enlightened.
Oh no, now I really have ruined that poignant moment...
(In all seriousness, thanks again to everyone who sent in question and continues to support me on this platform. I, quite literally, can't do this without you.)
Comments
Kyle Taylor
Thanks Caitlin! Appreciated your deep-dive on passing. Advantage assists is a cool concept, and I liked Samson's article on it. Perhaps that could even be expanded into a broader "Advantages created" category, to give credit for (potential) hockey assists that result from e.g. a driving guard or double-teamed center kicking out to the perimeter for a swing-swing-open three -- an advantage fundamentally created by one player's ability to initially collapse the defense. I guess "collapsed defenses" or % of possessions where player X collapses the defense" could also be a stat! Where post ups start is one of my favorite things to watch, especially for elite centers like Jokic and Embiid (and how, conversely, elite defenders like Bam, AD or Rudy are able to prevent the deep seal). To my eyes, Embiid's inability to get the deep seal as he fatigues is one of the most reliable indicators of ineffectiveness for Philly's offense because post-ups further from the basket are less likely to get double teamed and the defense can stay home everywhere else.
Caitlin Cooper
Also, very glad you enjoyed the mailbag
Caitlin Cooper
Yes, as a star, Booker shined during the Olympics for his ability to star in his role. Tyrese has made progress in this area, too -- going back to the World Cup when he was playing off-ball next to Brunson. When he gets face-guarded, there are certain circumstances that might call for him to start possessions away from the ball, with Nembhard and/or McConnell doing more of the steering. Like Booker, he also needs to be able to dial up the scoring.
Caitlin Cooper
Thanks, Norma!
Norma
Fun mailbag
TY
Great mailbag! Didn't know about Samson's advantaged assists concept, and appreciate the thoughts on improving defensive metrics. For the Olympics question, what do you mean by Booker's scalability? Is it that he can take as big or small of a role as needed (ex. scoring)?
