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On T.J. McConnell & why there can't be too much of a good thing
🕑 Added 2024-08-30 23:56:56 +0000 UTCThe more point guards, the better
By: Caitlin Cooper I @C2_Cooper
When it comes to point guards, the Pacers are basically the embodiment of every "why not both?" meme -- only if "both" was replaced with "all." After already inking Andrew Nembhard to a three-year, $59 million extension just prior to the Paris Olympics, Indiana is also adding T.J. McConnell to the mix, signing the nine-year veteran to a four-year, $45 million contract extension that aligns with the length of Tyrese Haliburton's current deal, reports ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski.
Whereas Haliburton generally prefers to survey, looking here, there, and everywhere to manipulate weak-side taggers with the uncertainty he creates with the combination of his range, floater touch, and lob/skip pass, McConnell turns the floor into a maelstrom, swirling the defense into a tizzy with his relentless baseline attacks and unpredictable driving angles. Nembhard, meanwhile, pilots the pick-and-roll with both guile and moxie, moseying to his spots with an air of grit while using subtle tricks to improve the efficiency of his movement. On the whole, there's a strong case to be made that point guard isn't just the deepest position for the Pacers, the Pacers also might have the most depth at point guard of any team in the league.
And, here's the thing: In this case, while focusing only on the basketball and not the potential salary cap implications, it doesn't appear as though there can be too much of a good thing. In fact, the Pacers outscored opponents by 7.39 points per 100 possessions in 1372 minutes with any two of Haliburton, Nembhard, and McConnell on the floor, as the latter paired particularly well in hybrid lineups with Haliburton spacing the floor (+15.9 in 220 minutes), while also spearheading what was the league's highest scoring bench offense.
Here's some numbers that boggle the mind, especially for a player who only attempted a total of 44 threes, albeit while shooting 40.9 percent on low-volume, last season:
According to Second Spectrum, McConnell led all players -- not just bench players, all players --- in drives per 100 possessions (35.7)
In addition to driving the ship, McConnell also led all players -- again, not just bench players, all players -- in kick-out passes per 100 possessions (19.9)
Meanwhile, among the 152 players who completed at least 100 passes to the corners, McConnell also racked up the most passes per 100 possessions to that location of any player in the league (10.2). Needless to say, when it comes to spraying the ball out to the perimeter and generating high-value assists, McConnell is the very definition of drive-and-kick, Nash-ing under the basket and getting two feet into the paint to collapse the weak-side zone and trigger kill cuts out of "push" (i.e. pistol) action
But, wait there's more: McConnell doesn't just find the corners. Last season, the league as a whole posted an effective field-goal percentage of 69.8 percent on no-dribble layups, compared to 55.9 percent following at least one dribble, and McConnell nearly joined Haliburton in cracking the top-10 of total passes leading to those extremely high-value shots, coming in at eleventh, despite only starting four games
And those are just his passing stats. After Buddy Hield was traded and Bennedict Mathurin was ruled out for the season due to injury, McConnell went from averaging 8.9 points per game on 55.3 percent shooting through the first 52 games of the season to 13.9 points on 56.3 percent over the last 19 games, even as his usage jumped from 21.0 percent up to 27.6 -- which was the highest on the team
During the span, while he was taking on increased usage and raising his efficiency, 60.3 percent of McConnell's made field goals were unassisted -- which, again, was the highest mark on the team
As such, without even mentioning his commitment to full-court pressure and the jolt of energy he provides in carrying over the pace of the starters with the second unit, McConnell is arguably the best backup point guard in the league. If anything, which is no knock against McConnell, there might have been a case toward the back-end of the season that the starters were, at times, too reliant on him as a security blanket to rectify slow starts. Of course, when Haliburton was out in Games 3 and 4 during the Eastern Conference Finals, there were also some spacing limitations with McConnell in the closing lineup, which brings into question some of the criticism for him to be in at the end of the Game 2 loss to the Knicks in the prior round.
Here, for instance, Jrue Holiday is not even pretending to guard him when he doesn't have the ball, which ultimately resulted in him throwing a grenade to Myles Turner after pump-faking out of a potential three-point attempt.
Of course, the easy adjustment would've been for McConnell and Nembhard to simply change roles, but that also could've proven regrettable with the way Nembhard was cooking as primary initiator. That said, when it comes to dividing the ball, Nembhard has typically been the player who takes a step back, with his usage dropping from 16.6 to 12.7 with McConnell versus without McConnell and from 20.9 to 13.6 with Haliburton versus without Haliburton. In the reverse, Haliburton hovers around 24 percent regardless of whether McConnell is on the floor and McConnell stays at or above 20 both with and without Haliburton.
To that point, if Nembhard keeps his foot on the gas of his momentum from the postseason, then there might eventually need to be some consideration given as to how and where the Pacers can siphon pick-and-roll possessions to optimize him. For now, though, with Nembhard signing a three-year extension that will take him through the 2027-28 season, and McConnell under contract through the 2028-29 season, this is easy -- not only with regard to Nembhard being an easy fit and the team (remember) winning the minutes when multiple ball-handlers are on the floor, but also as it pertains to keeping their options open, maintaining their accumulation of depth at the point guard position along with their flexibility, from a position of strength with added years, for a possible move in favor of consolidation.
Comments
Caitlin Cooper
Haha, I typically always try to be cognizant of both the Colts and the Fever when setting my posting times, but I wanted there to be space between this analysis and the mailbag that had to go out the next morning. Anyway, glad you enjoyed it!
Jord
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Mike Harvey
I really like the 3 guard descriptions of their games and the stats on TJ. I thought he would be gone after this last postseason so this was a pleasant surprise Need to deep dive more into the article but the Fever are playing. Thanks!
