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Can Pascal Siakam & Myles Turner meet their match?
🕑 Added 2024-08-26 12:30:01 +0000 UTCOn what needs to happen for Indiana's frontcourt to better complement each other on defense
By: Caitlin Cooper I @C2_Cooper
Following last month's mailbag, with a central focus on what comes next for Jarace Walker and Bennedict Mathurin as two potential swing pieces for next season, there were still plenty of Pacers-centric questions left over that seemed like perfect topics to dive into now that the offseason portion of the offseason is officially in full-swing. As such, some of the submitted inquiries are going to be turned into full-scale articles or mini deep dives over the coming days and weeks. After previously focusing on the underrated role that Myles Turner plays in keeping Pascal Siakam posted, this latest entry asked about what should be expected from the two of them at the other end of the floor.
Without further ado, let's deep dive!
Eric: My primary question relates to the defensive end of the floor for the Pacers, primarily in the frontcourt with Siakam and Turner. As much as people discuss how Haliburton and Siakam will continue to improve with each other offensively with a full offseason, I am curious how Siakam and Turner fit well on the other side of the ball with an extra summer of game planning. When trading for Siakam I was excited for him to potentially guard bigger wings, but as you pointed out, Nesmith (and sometimes even Nembhard) drew those assignments with Siakam acting as a helper/roamer. Do you think the Pacers will try to put Siakam on bigger wings next year (such as Tatum/George/Giannis), and if not, what do you envision his defensive role to be moving forward? As for Turner, I feel like at this stage his best quality at this point in his career is his help rim protection. Would it make any sense moving forward with having Turner more frequently guard low usage wings, acting as a help-side rim protector with Siakam guarding 5s to switch more pick-and-rolls?
That's a lot to unpack. Probably the most telling game with regard to encapsulating all of those questions is the start of the road meeting against the Pelicans at the beginning of March. Ignoring the video game numbers, in which the Pelicans opened the first quarter going 20-of-22 from the field, the Pacers lined up defensively with Myles Turner guarding Zion Williamson and Aaron Nesmith opposite of Brandon Ingram, who erupted for 19 points on 9-of-11 shooting in the opening frame. Meanwhile, despite being a wing-sized wing, Pascal Siakam was cross-matched onto Jonas Valanciunas. Granted, the Pelicans didn't stick with Valanciunas for long in either match-up of the two-game series, as the burly big man ended up logging a total of less than 15 minutes of action, but the sparse playing time was nonetheless revealing even if also brief.
Just look at what coverage Siakam was playing as the screener defender. Rather than switching onto Ingram, he's in a deep drop, backpedaling to the basket. So, to summarize, in addition to not being assigned to either Ingram or Williamson as primary, he also wasn't trading assignments when either of them was involved -- even at the risk of Ingram shooting over the top of Nesmith.
It's possible that decision was more about Nesmith than Siakam. As in, maybe the Pacers were trying to avoid the potential ramifications of Valanciunas transforming into a bulldozer against Nesmith under the basket and on the glass. Still, it's not as if that wouldn't have been without precedent. While certainly not ideal, Nesmith wrestled with Joel Embiid earlier in the season when the center rotation was in foul trouble, which actually proved just weird enough to throw off the balletic big man's rhythm. Additionally, Nesmith also spent plenty of time the prior season intentionally cross-matched against certain opposing bigs (i.e. Nikola Vucevic, Kristaps Porzingis, etc.) in order to keep Turner out of ball-screen actions and low around the basket. Needless to say, the calculus might have been different if Bennedict Mathurin was guarding Ingram, as was the case in the prior meeting, but Nesmith's mettle for fronting low-post threats had at least previously been tested. Plus, it seems as though there would've been something to be said for not just allowing Ingram to glide into easy shots, especially when he was making every shot in sight, right?
Then again, consider what happened in the second half -- after Siakam had taken on the mantle against Ingram with Nesmith instead swapped onto Valanciunas. On three-straight possessions, the Pelicans put their two best players into action, and on three-straight possessions, Siakam ran into contact chasing over as the on-ball defender, with Turner then attempting to contain Ingram following the late-switch. To be fair, some of these could probably be categorized as circus shots, but there also wasn't a lot of "containment" going on.
At any rate, the Pacers weren't switching with Siakam on either side of the pick-and-roll, whether he was defending the screener or on-ball. That changed four games later in Orlando, when the adjustment was made to switch on 4-5 screening actions, which leveraged Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner into self-created jump-shots, as the Pacers also shrank the floor behind the switch.
Of course, as the Pacers found out in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals, that isn't exactly feasible against every match-up. Remember, after Al Horford made more threes (7) than the entire Pacers team in Game 3 (5), Indiana went away from playing soft coverage and/or veer-switching when he was the screener to full-on switching. In turn, they ended up getting more than they bargained for from Jayson Tatum, who despite shooting 10-of-55 on isolation threes during the entirety of the playoffs made two just in this game alone while also doing things like this.
On the one hand, some of that can probably be attributed to the fact that Turner was managing a bad back; however, on the other hand, the Pacers chose to have him switching out with a bad back and that still happened despite the fact that Siakam was aggressively sinking to help -- which was significantly riskier than doing so, as Nesmith did in the prior clip against Orlando, or what was the case when Siakam was playing the part of roamer in the prior round while assigned to Josh Hart and Precious Achiuwa. Meanwhile, for a team that still ranked 24th in opponent offensive rebounding rate after trading for Siakam, the other downside of switching with Turner, especially if going switch-to-blitz is required, is that he is no longer in the vicinity of the glass while also creating a 2-on-1 advantage on the weak-side.
Taken altogether, while these are certainly inflection points, the general takeaway is that the Pacers have to reckon with reconciling how to switch with Siakam while also not switching with Turner. The obvious solution, as mentioned, would be to simply have Siakam guard the center position and switch on ball-screens, with Turner defending as the weak-side rim protector. While less frequent than last season, that scheme wouldn't be entirely unfamiliar. Here, for example, Nesmith can be seen guarding Nick Richards and switching out to the ball, with Jalen Smith protecting against the mismatch and kicking Andrew Nembhard out to the corner.
With that in mind, imagine if the Pacers had implemented that coverage against the Pelicans. In that event, Siakam would switch out to the ball-handler, with Turner off-ball switching onto Jonas Valanciunas, with Nesmith scurrying to Williamson, who effectively plays basketball like he's composed of equal parts rubber and steel.
As such, the expected end result of Nesmith attempting to hold his spot isn't exactly an upgrade over the other two options, which saw Ingram either gliding to his spots and rising over the top of Nesmith or going to work against Turner with Siakam running into contact. That said, when disregarding that game as an extreme outlier performance (which, it obviously was), the Pacers allowed 0.828 points per chance on the season with Siakam switching as the screener defender compared to 1.243 with him chasing over as the ball-handler defender. In part, that's why it's difficult to assign him as primary against on-ball wing creators or versus Jalen Brunson in the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals. His isolation defense can hold up at times in contain, but he's too easily screened. Put simply, he's a big body, but he's also a big target.
And yet, if Siakam starts out guarding at the center possession, which he only did for a total of 253 match-ups last seasons when Turner was also on the floor (and, mind you, 120 of those came against Achiuwa, when Isaiah Hartenstein or Josh Hart was also on the floor for New York), then the Pacers are still going to be giving up size at the wing positions. Plus, what happens when the other team isn't playing double big or with a shaky shooter on the floor? Take this possession against Boston, for example. When Siakam switches onto Horford, notice how Boston adjusts by simply having Jrue approach as the screener instead, so as to still involve Turner in the action.
If Turner doesn't guard Horford (or Porzingis) in that match-up, who exactly is he going to guard? Remember, part of the reason why the Pacers were able to maintain their pace in the playoffs is because they played over 400 possessions of press defense, with whichever player was guarding the ball-handler picking up full-court -- including Siakam and Toppin, which was admittedly dicey at times. If Turner is guarding Holiday or White, that coverage is going out the window, which is to say nothing of the ground-coverage concerns in the half-court when defending against guards who can both dribble, pass, screen, and shoot. That's expecting a lot from Turner as a big.
Granted, the Pacers shouldn't only be concerning themselves with the Celtics, as there will likely be other teams they have to get through in order to build on the momentum of last season's unexpected success, but the fact of the matter is that opponents are getting better at attacking those cross-matches. Just look at the Pacers. There's a reason why Brook Lopez went from guarding Pascal Siakam in Games 1 and 2 to defending in drop through the middle portion of the series and ultimately attempting to switch in Games 5 and 6.
In that sense, if Turner is still going to get screened into the action as the weak-side rim protector, it probably makes sense to just keep him as a five who defends fives, with Siakam playing that role instead. Of course, the counterpoint would be that Turner is 28, and he probably isn't going to consistently regain whatever closing speed he once had in recovery when defending as a ball-side anchor. To that point, he just doesn't always seem like he has the same level of oomf to get away with baiting the driver, as he can at times appear like he's playing with foul trouble even when has none, as was the case here at the start of Game 5 against the Knicks.
Even so, Siakam is 30, and he almost certainly isn't going to get tougher to screen. If he's playing the part of roamer, at least he can provide some degree of shadow presence behind Turner and in the gaps while also switching more feasibly if called up as the screener defender.
All of which is to say that, this is a difficult puzzle to solve, which likely means the team is going to have to rely more on small, internal improvements rather than significant scheme changes in order to level up on that end of the floor. Remember, after playing several seasons under Nick Nurse, in which the Raptors allowed near-to-the-highest volume of corner threes in the NBA, Siakam was traded to a Pacers team that surrendered the fewest, ranking last in closeouts per 100 possessions. To be fair, some of that relaxed in Toronto after the Raptors acquired Jakob Poeltl and with new head coach Darko Rajokovic implementing a more conservative scheme, but it was obvious for large portions of the season that, in addition to his tendency to run into contact on screens, Siakam also appeared both unsure and, at times, lethargic with his off-ball rotations.
Following a full training camp, it seems reasonable to think that he will have a better sense of where to be and when, just as he also acclimated to the rigors of applying full-court pressure.
Likewise, if Haliburton is going to stay in show-and-recover to avoid giving up mismatches, then expecting that both players be in the same coverage at the same time is asking the bare minimum and would help Siakam's defense at the point-of-attack to not, well, look like this.
As an explainer, Siakam isn't just giving up an easy blowby there. He's attempting to weak Jaylen Brown to his left, likely in expectation that the screener defender is going to be a big who stays in drop. At the same time, Haliburton is preparing to step above the level of the screen, which means the other side of the pick is entirely exposed. Those types of miscues can't happen, and likely explain why Siakam was no longer guarding Brown or Tatum by the end of the series. Haliburton needs to be loud calling out his coverage as the screener defender, but Siakam is also heavy-footed with his urgency to get back in the play. (By the way, that's wasn't just a one-off either.) Additionally, once Haliburton was ruled out for the remainder of the series, Siakam seemed likely to take on extra usage. That didn't turn out to be the case, but the idea that more might be needed from him offensively was arguably another valid reason to swap him off those match-ups.
One potential wrinkle would be to try incorporating zone again. After playing 437 possessions of zone during the 2021-22 season and 244 possessions of zone the following season, the Pacers only logged 11 total possessions this past season -- most of which weren't in the half-court. Just a hunch, but it seemed like the decision to move away from zone stemmed from the want to streamline and simplify the team's overall defensive package. Additionally, they ran into some trouble with Haliburton getting overpowered at the top, especially when they were attempting to morph from zone to man mid-possession on high-post touches. Either way, now that Siakam is on the roster, it might be worth it to consider playing Haliburton at the bottom of a shape-shifting 3-2 zone that transforms into 2-3 on low post touches. Without going into express details, Siakam could play in contain without the same screen navigation concerns, Turner could defend weak-side corner, and Haliburton at least wouldn't be getting hunted as often.
Still, that would only be a curveball, and if Siakam isn't going to be taking on top assignments while more often starting possessions away from the ball, then the Pacers are going to have to bank on Jarace Walker's body of work being more representative of his body size over the course of the season, if he cracks the rotation, than what was demonstrated in Vegas. Moreover, with regard to Turner, there's also clearly a difference when Sheppard is defending at the point of attack, with the team allowing just 0.837 points per chance, then when Mathurin is in that role, at 1.121 points per chance. And, here's the thing: Mathurin's on-ball defense, especially when screen navigation isn't involved, is currently ahead of is off-ball defense, where he can still struggle with recurrent lapses. If either of them takes a step forward on that end of the floor, then maybe Turner isn't as pressed as the screener defender with more defenders pressing up on the ball, which is to say nothing of the many reasons why Haliburton, although outweighing his short-comings with his other-worldly impact on offense, typically takes on low usage wings and shows on picks while being repeatedly targeted. To that point, while the coaching staff probably deserves more credit for why the team performs above its talent on offense, it's also fair to say that they are likely getting what should be expected, with as much as they have to scheme around, on defense.
As a recent writing about the novel way in which Pascal Siakam is being accentuated in the post goes to show, there's a reason why he reportedly had Turner ranked so highly on his list of players with whom he would love to play. That said, just as they provide a counterweight to each other while occupying separate spaces on offense, change is likely going to have to happen for them to be as alleviating for one another on defense, with the changes either coming from how they are supported by other players on the roster or players yet to be added to the roster.
