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Why Obi Toppin's return should signal consolidation
🕑 Added 2024-06-30 20:54:46 +0000 UTC-- eventually
By: Caitlin Cooper I @C2_Cooper
Turns out, Obi Toppin won't be listening to offers from any other teams, as the restricted free agent reached agreement on a four-year, $60 million deal to stay with the Pacers just hours before the start of free agency, reports ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski.
To a certain extent, this is a no-brainer for the Pacers. As the first player in team history to finish a season with at least 100 completed dunks and 100 made threes, Toppin is a natural extension and, oftentimes, highly efficient endpoint of the team's identity in the open floor. For the season, his effective field-goal percentage of 66.1 percent ranked second in the league despite the fact that he attempted over 200 threes (i.e. Grayson Allen was the only other player to place among the top-10 while hoisting that volume of shots from deep), and he was the recipient of 71 advance passes from Tyrese Haliburton, which was more than the centers on the roster combined for (54).
As such, on the league-leading team in average time to shoot, Toppin was a key contributor off the bench for the Eastern Conference Finalists -- not only with the way he advanced himself in front of the offense, but also with how he advanced the ball in the half-court with his quick decision-making. And yet, what stood out most about his performance from two specific closeouts games during the playoffs also stands in front of the Pacers as a potential fork in the road moving forward.
At one end of the spectrum is Game 6 against the Milwaukee Bucks, in which he led all scorers for the Pacers with 21 points, stepping into threes in transition, leaking out for runouts, finding nylon on a push-shot in the lane as the roll-man, and even dribbling uphill to make a one-handed pass with his left! On the whole, with the Bucks transitioning from cross-matching Brook Lopez onto Pascal Siakam in Games 1 and 2 to planting the seeds of the agrarian economy of buckets that would be grown by Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner against drop coverage and blitzing through the middle portion of the series to eventually switching everything, the stage was set for the role players to deliver for the Pacers, with the ball hopping both in the open floor as well as between actions, and Toppin was arguably majestic -- exceeding even the most optimistic expectations of how he would come to fit with the Pacers.
Unfortunately, the same could not be said in the reverse, when the Pacers needed to switch in Game 4 against the Celtics. For that game, after Al Horford made more threes (7) than the entire team for Indiana in Game 3 (5), the Pacers switched on 46.2 picks per 100 possessions in that game compared to 20.7 over the prior three games combined and 5.4 during the entirety of the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals against the Knicks. In that setting, with Myles Turner managing a bad back, Toppin revealed the extent to which he builds out the team's strengths but doesn't necessarily address their weaknesses.
With 3:54 to play in the fourth quarter, Indiana attempted to go small with Obi Toppin at the five next to Pascal Siakam. For the next two-and-a-half minutes, the Pacers were held scoreless, and the Celtics converted two shots -- both with Toppin attempting to defend in space.
In that regard, while it is certainly notable that Siakam wasn't assigned to Tatum or Brown for that game, he generally isn't quite as limited with his containment switching out to the ball. In fact, according to Second Spectrum, the Pacers gave up just 0.813 points per chance with Siakam switching out to the ball as the screener defender in the postseason, compared to 1.136 with Toppin. To be fair, the Pacers outscored opponents by 9.1 points per 100 possessions in 95 minutes with Toppin at nominal five in lineups with Siakam during the regular season, and that number likewise stayed above sea level in the playoffs (+4.5) over nearly the same sample size of playing time (94), but it was largely propped up by just that... outscoring opponents.
If that combination proves viable over a larger sample size in spot minutes, then the fact that Jalen Smith turned down his player option will be more palatable, as will the possibility of finding playing time for all of Andrew Nembhard, Bennedict Mathurin, Ben Sheppard, and Jarace Walker --- though doing so would likely chip into Isaiah Jackson's role as back-up five.
Otherwise, if they prefer to play with a traditional center on the floor at all times, Walker's progression as a shooter suggests that he could potentially be shoehorned into playing at the three, as opposed to solely competing for minutes at power forward. To his credit, after shooting a combined 14-of-62 (22.5 percent) on jump-shots at Summer League and during preseason action, Walker made quick adjustments to his shot in the G League, eliminating the hitch that was visible in Las Vegas while dealing with his elbow injury and also reining in his tendency to drift to his left on his release. By comparison, he connected on 39.4 percent of his jump-shots in the G League, including shooting 41 percent on guarded threes. Granted, not very many of those attempts are coming off any type of dynamic movement, such as slipping out into space as the ghost screener or rising and firing off screens or out of hand-offs, but he's made enough tweaks to think that he could be a standstill floor-spacer in addition to what else he adds as a connector and with his touch on the offensive end of the floor.
In that scenario, after starting two games in the Eastern Conference Finals and cracking the eight-man rotation consistently throughout all three rounds of the playoffs, Ben Sheppard would most likely be on the outside-in looking in -- which, to this point, wouldn't exactly be justified as it pertains to his ability to play to scheme on both ends of the floor, barring significant strides from Walker in Las Vegas this summer. And, therein lies the rub. When thinking back to how Game 4 ended against the Celtics, the idea of who Walker could be as a defender provides the likeliest in-house solution on the roster, but that isn't who he is yet. As someone who went from a hyper-aggressive defensive scheme in college to a far more conservative system with the Pacers, he needs time to earn playing time on a team that, after advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals, is focused more so on the here and now. It's possible that Walker will appear more ready to be part of the team's present at Summer League; however, even if he does, that again means that another young player won't be playing.
To that point, the fast-paced play-style of the Pacers, which Toppin arguably epitomizes, lends itself to playing more bodies, but T.J. McConnell even started the season outside of the rotation due to the difficulties of trying to play 10 deep. If the starting lineups remains the same, with McConnell, Mathurin, Toppin, and Jackson rounding out the top-nine, that leaves one spot for Sheppard or Walker, not counting the three players the team just drafted in the second round.
All of which is to say, there's a case for the Pacers running back largely the same roster and banking on internal development, but only if there's time for the players who, in theory, could eventually address what needs to be addressed on the defensive end to develop. If not, while there certainly doesn't need to be a rush to make a change as they continue the evaluation process, Toppin's return as a key contributor on a four-year pact should arguably signal an eventual consolidation move with some of the developing players on the roster -- not only to search for what they still need to find in the immediate at the defensive end, but also to avoid the potential for Toppin to become in Indiana what Julius Randle was as a logjam to him in New York.
Comments
Rafa
I think your overall thesis holds water. I also think you search for it in the microcosm. Obi gave up a couple of buckets in space in the 4th q of game 4 against the Celtics. The guys that scored are really good and eventually score on everyone. They had better 4th quarters in the same series with Toppin off the floor. The Pacers scored a whopping 19 points that 4th quarter and 0 in the final 3 minutes. If you want to point to play that encapsulates why they couldn’t finish that game I think are looking at the wrong side of the ball even if wing defense should be a FO priority.
Flyover Country
In homage to Boston, the Sixers and Knicks have loaded up wings. Big wings. I hope the Pacers' brass finds a proven pro to hold the fort as our prospects develop. Love me some Aaron Nesmith, but you can't teach size.
Mike Brooks
Agree. Hopefully much sooner than later for the development of our young players. Thanks for all the insights/ work…
Caitlin Cooper
Your last sentence is basically the thesis of this article -- so, I understand where you're coming from. To explain what I'm guessing the thought process was with McDermott: Tyrese was basically experiencing a hurricane followed by a tsunami. The injury had sapped his ability to create separation and they traded the main exterior means to helping him gain it back. At the time, it made sense to go after a movement shooter who could, theoretically, ghost some of switches, until Tyrese was back to being himself. Of course, not all movement shooters are created equal, and the fact that Doug prefers to move to his right, whereas Buddy prefers to move to his left, wasn't exactly a fit with Tyrese and TJM. Still, I get where they were coming with that, although I do agree that it was foreseeable that Doug wasn't going to be a factor in the playoffs based on past history, whereas Jarace, if ready, has a much clearer path to impact. As far as not being ready to make decisions, they are seeing these guys every day at practice, workouts, etc. They'll have a lot of data points. If anything, this front office borders on being too prudent -- not hasty. I don't see them rushing to make a move unless it's a surefire way to improve. (As for Nembhard, his utility isn't directly tied to his shot -- although it certainly makes things easier. He and Sheppard are both more advanced with feels and reads at both ends of the floor, which is important for this play-style and is very difficult to project from a development standpoint).
Kyle Taylor
No doubt, Benn and Jarace have had a hand in this situation, I totally agree. They're also 22 and 20 and may not develop on a timeline Tyrese is hoping for, which is what raises the possibility that the front office is wrong about one or more of these guys. (And, fwiw, they could also be wrong about Ben or Drew; the latter, for example, is a career 35% 3PT shooter in the regular season who just shot 48% from 3 in the playoffs.) My concern is about the degree of uncertainty the front office will face when a consolidation trade happens, because I think it could happen in the next 7 months. With Jarace, I suppose it's somewhat frustrating just on an emotional level: the Pacers finally drafted a "big wing", immediately added a bench player at his position, the bench guy beat him out for rotation minutes (fine, he's 19), the G league helped him develop, they add a star at his position (amazing), but then they added McDermott in front of him too (weird, but maybe it'll work??), it doesn't work, there are almost no meaningful NBA minutes post-deadline, then they retain the star and the bench player at his position, and suggest Jarace play SF. A frustrating year 1 for Indiana's second highest draft pick in my lifetime! No one is entitled to minutes; Jarace is also the only guy on the roster who could conceivably address the team's biggest weaknesses.
Mike Brooks
I follow the logic on consolidation for a now solution. I just don’t see a consolidation trade and now solution as the answer but depends on the goal. If the goal is to give yourself the best chance to win an NBA championship, then not sure how a consolidation trade works unless Myles is part of it. Seems to me that it would only reduce the chances of developing Jarace. Also, there are a lot angular players (assuming you mean length without wide shoulders?) with good hips and lateral quickness or great footwork and recovery in 1 on 1 - see Paul George, Derrick McKey, Scottie Pippen etc.. getting blown by because he isn’t in a good defensive athletic stance is more about technique and effort.
Caitlin Cooper
That's fair -- though I would counter that Benn and Jarace also have a hand in controlling their own destiny on this front. Benn was in pole position as the starter when the season started for no other reason than prioritizing his development. Likewise, unlike Jarace, Sheppard found his way into the rotation after returning from the G League. Nembhard has started 100+ games in his first two seasons. If Benn and Jarace were ready for those roles, they would've had and/or retained them this season. Without speaking for them, Tyrese has made it clear that he wants to win now, and the overall calculus shifted once they traded for Pascal Siakam. I'm in favor of continuing to evaluate all of the young players on the roster to see which are the best fits and are likeliest to hit their ceilings, but they can't all play meaningful minutes. Looking forward to evaluating how things look after Summer League, though.
Caitlin Cooper
I would be very surprised if Aaron was out of the rotation.
Caitlin Cooper
The contract is more than fine. Obi is good and had a terrific season. I just foresee a logjam that will have to be addressed at some point.
Caitlin Cooper
These were things that I talked about during the last mailbag podcast.
Caitlin Cooper
Obi is very angular -- which means he's excellent at accelerating in straight lines, but doesn't have the hip flexibility to switch out with backward mobility. I don't think it's an excuse about the adjustment period from Houston to the Pacers. That's a big scheme change for a 20-year-old, as it also was for both Bruce Brown and Siakam. To my knowledge, I didn't use any "clever advanced stats" with regard to Jarace. I simply pointed out that, for now, there isn't a way to play all of these young players. I've also pointed out the need for wing defense many, many times. As I wrote, he's the most likely in-house solution, but a lot of his defense is based on his sly, deft hands and his wingspan -- not necessarily his mobility, although he doesn't face the same physical restraints as Toppin. My guess is, which underscores the point of the article, that the issues on the defensive end will likely have to be addressed by a consolidation trade, when the right opportunity arises.
Flyover Country
Like about the Obi conundrum. However, from my experience viewing Jarace, he too can't keep anyone in front of him. Hopefully one or more of these two incredible athletes will "get it" at the defensive end. The Pacers used to have a track record of turning defensive liabilities into serviceable defenders Bojan Bogdanović for example). May that magic return.
James T Sandberg
Seems like a contract that gives some optionality to the team and good money for him - a win win.
Mike Brooks
I live Toppin with this team offensively but doesn’t solve our problem of guarding longer/ larger wings. Even though Obi has the athleticism and size at 235, he just doesn’t seem willing or able to use it to get his hips low and turn the driver/ context 1 on 1 on the floor or at the rim. Kind of tired of clever advanced stats or hearing how Jarace isn’t good enough in team concepts/ off ball. If we don’t find someone who can guard a big wing especially w/ Knicks trade and Celtics dominance, we are years away from a finals bid
Kyle Taylor
With Mathurin missing the playoffs and Jarace struggling early + McDermott slotting in ahead of him after the deadline, it feels like the Pacers may be forced to make such a consolidation trade without very important information about all of their prospects (e.g. before the '24-'25 trade deadline). This increases the chances the front office is just plain wrong about one or more of these guys, including Indiana's two best prospects in the last 30 years. I know small market teams are *supposed* to retain guys like Obi, and he can be included in a consolidation trade, but unless he develops hitherto unseen defensive skills, he is, as you show, unlikely to fill any of the team's most pressing needs while remaining likely to play ahead of guys who might. For me, this concern comes down, in part, to how I view the team overall: I think they are very unlikely to return to the ECF next year. Because I view the team that way, I want to see them emphasize developing Benn and Jarace, even if doing so lowers the team's immediate ceiling.
Keith Correll
If they think his head is screwed on straight, I could see us making a run at Isaiah Stewart. Good skill in our offense behind or alongside Myles & Pascal. It would be nice if we thought he could guard 4s. I could see Aaron (unfortunately) as the odd-man out to give minutes to Benn, Shep & Jarace. Will be interesting to see what happens. Maybe we just go with a Drew Eubanks and live with the logjam at small wing…
