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On the difference Pascal Siakam makes
🕑 Added 2024-04-18 12:53:01 +0000 UTCAnd what changes to expect from how he changes the match-up
By: Caitlin Cooper I @C2_Cooper
On New Year's Day, when the Pacers played the first of a two-game, baseball-style mini-series against the Milwaukee Bucks at Fiserv Forum, Buddy Hield was still on the roster, Bennedict Mathurin had yet to be ruled out for the season with a torn labrum, and Pascal Siakam was about to go off for 36 points on 13-of-20 shooting -- albeit more than seven hours away in a different Midwest city while, at that point, continuing to press on as part of a different team. Rather, for that night and 12 games in total, Jalen Smith got the nod at starting power forward, underscoring why change would eventually be necessary at his position.
To understand why, recall the lampstand that was the semi-finals of the In-Season Tournament, in which Myles Turner distinguished himself as a beacon of his own improvement, amassing 15 points as the roll-man. For the season, that was Turner's second-highest scoring output after setting a screen, trailing only the prior game against Milwaukee, when he tallied 16 points. As such, after getting (quite literally) rolled over by the screen-and-roll, the Bucks decided to (also, quite literally) "switch" things up, starting the New Year with Giannis Antetokounmpo guarding Turner in place of Brook Lopez so they could switch ball screens. In turn, that meant Lopez was assigned to Smith, which very quickly provided a reminder as to why Smith had previously been ruled out as the team's starting power forward the year before.
Just take a look at this possession from early in the first quarter and notice how, with Giannis switching out to the ball and Lopez hanging back in the paint, Smith robotically pivots into a dribble hand-off despite the fact that Tyrese Haliburton is motioning for the ball to be entered from the wing to Turner against the mismatch.
As a result, Lopez has time to kick the smaller defender out of the paint, which squanders the size advantage. Less than a minute later, Smith created nearly the same issue again. This time, driving into the path of the mismatch without maintaining a live-dribble.
Then, there was also this possession, in which he appeared as though he had stepped into a pit of quick sand and lost the ability to move with the ball until finally he attempted the shot that the defense was daring him to take.
Needless to say, the Pacers didn't stick with Smith at the four for very long, as he played just 11 total minutes with Turner and only two after halftime. Of course, as brief as those stints were, they're still longer than what there is to expound on with Siakam in tow -- given that the lanky forward was in Cleveland that night and has yet to appear in a game for Indiana against the Bucks, let alone the Bucks coached by Doc Rivers. In that regard, although the Pacers ended up winning that game (thanks in large part to the bench and some truly putrid transition defense and three-point shooting from the Bucks), there is still reason to consider the difference that Siakam's addition will make in games that are likely to be played differently.
On Offense:
Since January 29, when Doc Rivers took over as head coach, the Bucks have jumped from 29th in transition frequency allowed to 11th, according to Cleaning the Glass. Meanwhile, they've switched on the third-most ball-screens per 100 possessions, even though Lopez has only switched on a total of 38 picks as the screener defender. If those numbers hold, the Pacers may not be able to boost their transition offense as easily with pace as they did in January, when they scored 62 combined transition points in two games with Milwaukee. Additionally, the discrepancy with how often the team is switching by comparison to Lopez, who is still playing mainly in drop, seems to suggest the possibility of more cross-matching, with the big man once again defending weak-side corner against the less likely screener.
Granted, some of that might depend on whether Giannis is actually available. As of now, he's doubtful for Game 1 with a calf strain, but there's also past precedent of Bobby Portis taking on the assignment against Turner as a starter, with Lopez instead guarding Andrew Nembhard -- at least when the team was playing four-guard lineups last season. Now, Nembhard is more likely to be the hiding spot for Damian Lillard, which means Lopez would guard Siakam.
Remember, other teams have tried this, and for the most part, Siakam has been a wizard at navigating the middle of the floor and creating space for himself against fives. For example, here he is stepping back to shoot over the never-ending standing reach of Kristaps Porzingis.
Or, how about when he changed directions like a bumper car to wheel around Joel Embiid with his preferred left before finishing at the rim with his inside hand. Sheesh!
Notably, in both of those instances, neither opponent had a secondary rim protector on the floor with any degree of size or pop. That wasn't the case last week against Cleveland, when Siakam was guarded by Jarrett Allen with Evan Mobley lurking around every corner -- and the same could apply with Giannis as a spare big. In that event, the Pacers will probably need to be a bit more cognizant of match-ups. Here, for example, they're setting up Siakam to attack Jarrett Allen at speed, but Haliburton is the screener while being defended by Isaac Okoro.
To be fair, Haliburton doesn't actually hit and hold on the screen; however, even if he did, that wouldn't exactly be a favorable switch -- especially by comparison to running the same action with Nesmith as the screener to involve Donovan Mitchell. At the same time, Nembhard is cutting into the dunker's spot, which works to prevent Mobley from switching off-ball to protect the rim, but the timing is a bit off, so he basically just brings a help defender into the path of Siakam. Overall, since acquiring Siakam and trading Hield, the Pacers have been running more flat pick-and-rolls with inverted spacing to create a wider entry point for Siakam to drive into while also putting a guard in the unfamiliar position of stymying the ball-handler and controlling the dunker's spot. If the Pacers are confined more often to the half-court and need to manufacture points against a cross-matched defense, that alignment with Siakam isolated against Lopez and Giannis tethered to the opposite corner will give the Pacers an option that wasn't previously attainable with the other makeshift alternatives at the four-spot.
That matters because, if Giannis or Portis are switching out to the ball while assigned to Turner as the screener defender, the Pacers probably aren't going to be able to elicit this same type of response with anyone ghosting the switch to open a wider gap for Haliburton
Plus, just as there's a difference between what Siakam can do with a live dribble by comparison to Smith, there's also a difference between Haliburton screening for Siakam while potentially involving Okoro by comparison to Malik Beasley -- especially with Lillard in the dunker's spot. That's the difference Siakam makes.
On Defense:
The Pacers needed a wing-sized wing, and Pascal Siakam is a wing-sized wing, but he doesn't always guard wing-sized wings. In fact, when the Pacers played back-to-back games against the New Orleans Pelicans at the beginning of March, Siakam started out defending Jonas Valanciunas in drop coverage while Turner was assigned to Zion Williamson and Aaron Nesmith got the nod against Brandon Ingram. A few weeks later, for both games against the Lakers, Nesmith was matched up with LeBron with Siakam instead defending Rui Hachimura. As such, Nesmith seems most likely to take on the challenge against Giannis. Of course, just as was the case against LeBron, just because Nesmith is the primary defender against Giannis doesn't mean he will be the only player defending Giannis.
Remember, rather than staying home on shooters and throwing Hield to the wolf-like Bucks as was the case when Giannis set Milwaukee's franchise record for scoring with a career-high of 64 points, Indiana was far more committed to committing extra bodies to the cause in January.
Just take a look at this screenshot. 
When Nesmith took over for Jalen at the four spot in the second half, more of the offense for Giannis had already shifted to the post, where he didn't have to contend with clogged driving lanes. In response, the Pacers started doubling from the top of the defense, as is their usual method, in order to force the ball out of the dominant forward's hands while keeping their rotations in front. Generally speaking, the Bucks have a tendency to eschew passing and cutting in favor of static isolations and controlled tempo; however, as that screenshot goes to show, the opportunities to knife behind the stunts at the elbows will be there for the taking, which means the Pacers and, more specifically, Siakam need to avoid getting lulled to sleep away from the ball.
That said, the Bucks can be confusing a bunch. In addition to being overly reliant on creating shots in isolation, they also aren't always the most selective with whom they choose to isolate against. Tellingly, since Rivers took over as head coach, the Bucks rank 16th in points per chance scored out of isolation while racking up the ninth-highest volume per 100 possessions. Here, for example, rather than advancing the ball onto the next action, Giannis attacks Anthony Davis one-on-one and misses a contested hook shot.
To be fair, Giannis is certainly capable of making contested hook shots, and the Pacers don't have any defenders with the same degree of mobile rim protection as Davis, but that's also the point. If Giannis is faced with extra defensive attention, what was an isolation versus Davis could very well get squeezed into a potentially more productive empty side dribble hand-off to Khris Middleton in the same scenario against Indiana. Back in March, when Brandon Ingram rattled off 19 first-quarter points moseying to his spots and rising up over Nesmith, the Pacers eventually made the move to upsize the match-up with Siakam. The only problem is, New Orleans just started involving their two best players in the same action, with Siakam running into contact on screens.
Here, this hand-off is being run out of the post and in the opposite direction of what would be the case in that example from Milwaukee's game against the Lakers, but the trouble with Siakam chasing over against a mid-range scorer and late-switching is nonetheless glaring. 
In Orlando, the Pacers switched on 4-5 screening actions when Siakam was defending Paolo Banchero, which yielded better results as far as preventing Banchero from getting downhill and taking more of his shots as threes, but that hasn't been a consistent schematic change -- in part, likely to maintain Turner's presence around the rim. Of course, if Nesmith is defending Giannis, the other half of the switch would have nothing to do with Turner, as the concern would more so go full-circle, bringing back into question whether Nesmith will be able to contest against Middleton in a way that he struggled versus Ingram.
According to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, the Bucks are preparing to be without their two-time MVP for the start of the series. In that event, Siakam would likely match with Bobby Portis, which means Nesmith would be jockeying for position with Middleton, trying to force the mid-range maestro baseline into turnaround, fadeaway jump-shots. After all, there is some logic to prioritizing Siakam as a scorer -- especially if the offense slows down against switches and by virtue of some of the previously explained cross-matching. Even so, as a wing-sized wing, Siakam provides the Pacers with an additional option to consider against wing-sized wings.
That's why, while the status of Giannis may be questionable, the difference that Siakam makes, as the only starter for the Pacers who has yet to play in this match-up, should be evident in theory and, for the sake of Indiana's chances to advance in the series, hopefully, also apparent in action.
Comments
Caitlin Cooper
I'll definitely be keeping an eye on this. He has the ability to bend this series. I think the PnR coverage will be one of the most interesting aspects of the match-up.
James T Sandberg
I assume you may already be tracking this, but I'd love a dive unto how they defend Ty post-injury (after game one of course) vs their poor approach the first 5 games.
