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The Pacers are still winging it against wings
🕑 Added 2023-12-18 14:23:10 +0000 UTCKarl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards weren't the first forward/wings to score in bulk against the Pacers, and they likely won't be the last -- unless and until something changes
By: Caitlin Cooper I @C2_Cooper
The Minnesota Timberwolves scored 128.3 points per 100 possessions against the Indiana Pacers on Saturday night, which ranks in the 88th percentile of all games this season. The Pacers were without Tyrese Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard, and Jalen Smith, and it was the second night of a back-to-back for a team that was late to arrive in Minneapolis due to travel issues and hasn't played at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in nearly two weeks. All of that context matters and should be taken into consideration, but so should the fact that Karl-Anthony Towns went on a rampage out of simple post actions, tallying a season high of 40 points to go with 37 from Anthony Edwards, who was on fire in isolation. Put simply, the Pacers had no reliable answers for either player, and they haven't had reliable answers against interchangeable forwards and wings for most of the season.
Just look at this list of players at those positions who have notched season or career-high marks against the Pacers through the first 24 games:
- Karl-Anthony Towns - 40 points, season high
- Giannis Antetokounmpo - 64 points, season high and franchise record (previous season-high of 54 points also came against the Pacers)
- Jimmy Butler - 36 points, tied season high
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. - 24 points, season and career high
- De'Anthony Melton - 30 points, season high
- Evan Mobley - 33 points, season high
Moreover, while not season or career-high performances, Anthony Edwards (37), Pascal Siakam (36), Jerami Grant (34), Jayson Tatum (32), and Kyle Kuzma (31) all also dropped over 30 on the Pacers. Granted, that rundown includes several All-Stars as well as a former MVP (i.e. these guys are good!), but there also appears to be at least some degree of vanity sizing that comes along with playing the Pacers, particularly at warp speed and with the added benefit of extra possessions, for players of this size. That said, the game against Minnesota was one of the slowest, in terms of pace, that the Pacers have played this season. Unlike what happened the night before in Washington, this wasn't a case of two teams merging both ends of the floor together into a single, frenetic blur; it was a steady stream of bully ball, with certain stretches looking as though they needed to be accompanied by a "must be this tall to enter" sign at an amusement park.
On two possessions in a row, Towns dispelled of Nesmith's scrappiness at the end of the first quarter, and when he came out of the game, Naz Reid took over where he left off.
Jarace Walker, meanwhile, played a season high of 24 minutes and got a few sporadic chances at the match-up while sprinkling in some creative passes throughout his playing time, but he didn't exactly look ready to put up a stop sign against the All-Star forward. At one point, he compromised the defense with his tendency to gamble, and he also attempted to front the post with his toes in, for reasons that are unclear.
This is fine, he's a rookie and rookies make mistakes, but if the argument is that the Pacers struggled to contain Edwards and Towns mainly because of fatigue, Walker should be anything but fatigued, given that he's only logged 10 or more minutes four times this season.
Another possible angle is that the Pacers might've been fine exchanging these types of post scores for threes, if Haliburton had been available. That's possible, but Buddy Hield has very notably shot 4-of-20 from deep over the last three games, and the Pacers have gone 1-7 this season (including the IST finals loss) when shooting below 30 percent on three-point attempts. Shooters go through slumps, but there's no sugarcoating how much of an indictment it is that, in two of those last three games, Hield has been tasked with punching above his weight class on defense with Giannis and Kuzma as his primary assignments. As strange as it may seem at first blush, it makes sense -- at least for that lineup. Obi Toppin and Myles Turner got worked in single coverage against Giannis in the prior two games against Milwaukee, and the Pacers needed Bruce Brown to defend Damian Lillard at the point of attack. That leaves Haliburton and Hield. Of those two, Hield is sturdier and less important to kick-starting basically everything on offense.
Plus, by comparison to his own standard, he's quietly held his head above water in a handful of instances when he seemed destined to sink. Here, for example, he's switches from Scottie Barnes to O.G. Anunoby and ultimately knocks the ball away from Dennis Schröder on the drive.
Not bad, right? Well, he's still had some other "not great" moments that have resulted in him being immediately subbed out, such as when he got caught trying to duck under a screen against Jerami Grant and then never managed to square himself to the ball after jumping on a pump fake. In that regard, these types of assignments are too much to ask -- not only as it pertains to his defensive capabilities but also with respect to the potential for him to get worn down over time.
And yet, to watch an opponent isolate against him in space and intentionally call for a screen to go at Obi Toppin, it becomes understandable as to why the Pacers are matching up as they are.
Toppin deserves credit for staying down and using his length to disrupt some of Jimmy Butler's process in the second game against Miami, and he certainly builds out the team's strengths in transition and with his play-finishing as a cutter, but the Pacers have been outscored during his minutes and he's the only starter for which that applies.
None of which is to mention that, what was almost more troubling against Minnesota is that other options were also open, even as the Pacers were getting overwhelmed by Towns and Edwards. Consider this baseline out of bounds play, for example. As Towns pops off the screens for the catch against Toppin, Mike Conley simultaneously wheels around a pair of middle pindowns.
When Toppin gets beat on the perimeter, T.J. McConnell stays put in the paint to wall off Towns. The only problem is, Towns scores over both of them and Conley is also wide open at the top of the key.
Likewise, there was a similar occurrence in the third quarter out of this horns formation. When Towns comes off the flare screen from Rudy Gobert at the elbow, this could be a hand-off to play through Edwards coming up out of the corner.
Or, he could've kicked the ball to the corner for an open three.
Instead, he got past Toppin and then scored around Turner with Brown also pulled over to help.
To that point, Towns wasn't just backing down the Pacers, he was also collapsing the defense and working them over from the outside. And, here's the thing: This is a much different response from what went down in the finals of the In-Season Tournament, when the Lakers scored 86 points in the paint, while only attempting 13 threes. Following that loss, it was reasonable to ask why Toppin was picking LeBron up this far from the basket while everyone else stayed affixed to the perimeter, with two defenders having their backs turned to the ball and Turner keeping a hand on Anthony Davis.
For context, Davis has attempted a grand total of nine corner threes over the last three seasons, which is why this was preferable -- apparently?
What happened against Minnesota wasn't that, and the Pacers were undermanned at the end of an unprecedented road trip, but they also set a new precedent, as far as uncovering other options, while continuing the ongoing trend of giving up season highs to bigger, interchangeable forwards. It's possible that Walker will eventually grow into being part of the solution. Some of his instincts as an off-ball defender were better than what he's shown in other extended minutes this season. But, he isn't there yet, and even when he gets to the undefinable "there," he isn't going to be able to guard Towns and Edwards, with Towns and Edwards representing any teams with multiple scorers of this size and capability, at the same time.
Again, none of this is new, but at some point, the approach of continuing to wing it on defense with makeshift versions of wings, needs to get old -- especially if Tyrese Haliburton continues to play like an MVP candidate, soaring without the balance that he and the team need at the other end of the floor to really takeoff.
Comments
Rafa
Thanks for responding. I noticed that you pointed out how they gave up big games despite not "staying home" versus Minn. I also noticed some references to season-long trends. Some I don't think are going to change even with better personnel unless they elect to change scheme some. If you play at a fast pace and defend high-level NBA creators one-on-one they will have big games. Will upgrades help? Of course but it seems like everywhere I look Pacers fans are up in arms b/c "X" dropped 28 on 50% shooting. Watching Pacers games I think it's infected the team a little too (hair-trigger subs, over-aggressive individual defense leading to tons of unneeded fouls- its like hero ball on D, etc). They are in a good spot to try and upgrade. They should be open to doing so. I think the meantime I think they should find a little more consistency with the rotation and game plan and see where this group can go.
Caitlin Cooper
I see him mainly as a play-finisher. Who they involve typically has to do with where the advantages are. See: the game against Toronto. When the Raptors flipped the match-up, with Jakob guarding Toppin, Toppin became the screener. The Pacers generate more points per chance out of picks with Turner as the screener than Toppin.
Caitlin Cooper
Mmmmhmmm. He competes like none other, but there are limitations to what he can do against Giannis, LeBron, Towns, etc. -- particularly if he's playing from behind in the post. The Pacers continue to have one of the highest foul rates in the NBA.
Caitlin Cooper
And yet, the Pacers doubled KAT a fair amount in this game.
Caitlin Cooper
The Pacers are outscoring opponents by 7.7 points per 100 possessions with Haliburton and Hield on the floor together. No one else on this roster is pulling a defender away from Haliburton on that dagger against Boston other than Hield. I don't see Smith faring any better in space against Towns, Kuzma, etc. than Toppin. For now, the Pacers just need to make a choice between Smith/IJax at backup five, and the choice might be match-up dependent. I still think the idea of Walker's defense is fairly far away from the reality of his defense. He's only 20. Be patient.
Caitlin Cooper
Also, if you're interested: I talked about a lot of this after the Pacers-Raptors game over at Raptors Republic. Here's the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LjRBfiOmSNI&t=172s
Caitlin Cooper
Walker still has a ways to go on defense. To be honest, I think he was mainly only in the rotation because three of Indiana's top-eight guys were out and it was the end of a very long, unprecedented road trip. He and Sheppard are scheduled to play in the G League showcase this week. As to your question, the current state of Toronto's defense is not a good gauge for Siakam or Anunoby. Siakam is playing out of position (though I think he's shown some drop-off as a defender regardless) and Anunoby hasn't performed to standard as of late. They need a shake-up. That said, when he's at his best, Anunoby is one of the most position-less defenders in the NBA. He is capable of being both reactive and proactive and would give the Pacers a lot of versatility while also plugging more easily into the offense. Siakam would be more of a play for the playoffs, given his abilities to create with a live-dribble. Either would be obvious upgrades, in my opinion, although I have some questions as to how Siakam would fare playing in this offense after watching his first 7+ games when he was being misused earlier this season.
Caitlin Cooper
What you're pointing out is what's pointed out in the article. They didn't use the same approach against Minnesota as they did against Philly or LAL. They sent extra bodies and not only did they not stop Towns, they gave up other options, as well. I don't think the sky is falling, but Tyrese playing the way he has should change the calculus, as far as being patient vs. aggressive. They've tried two vastly different schemes on defense over the last two seasons and neither has produced results. I don't see it getting reasonably better until changes are made.
Mike Brooks
Jarace is the only player with the natural size and frame at 6’8 and 240 at 19 years old to be that transcendent wing stopper against a wide variety of players. He needs time to learn and grow, when to take chances and when to just stay in front. Buying at a premium players that other teams develop may not be a luxury for Pacers.
Mike Brooks
Your point on Nesmith being scrappy is a great one. He is consistently asked to guard bigger and stronger guys. He plays so hard but just punching way above his weight class, see grabbing Lebron when backed down for the 3rd time. You can lift and put on weight but natural frame matters.
Mike Brooks
Very fun read, thanks for the insight and work to break down tape. What’s interesting about the NBA now is that, more than ever, it seems like getting to spots is critical and physical size at position is the only way to create difficult shots for these talented offensive players. Jokic, Embid, Luka, Lebron, KAT, and even players like Anthony Edwards at 225 lbs use their strength to get to spots and make shots vs winning with quickness and drawing doubles.
Keith Correll
Can we pretend last year didn’t happen and go back to Jalen Smith at the 4? Maybe the shooting holds up this time. IJax is playing too well to just go back to the bench. I’d also continue playing Jarace off the bench in a lot of situations. Two bigs plus Aaron at the 3 is the makings of a pretty good defense. I don’t think Obi and even Buddy are part of our future. Something has to give.
Homer Bradford
Thanks Caitlin! In light of the progress and upside you see from our youngsters on the defensive end, what are your thoughts on even trading a guy like Nembhard, Mathurin, or Walker for a Siakam or Anunoby? I personally don't see how either of them moves the needle for us the next couple years. The growth of Mathurin on defense (especially the last month), and Carlisle's willingness to start playing Walker has me excited for them as starters long-term for us. What are your thoughts on a starting lineup of Haliburton, Mathurin, Nesmith, Walker, and Turner? Then to have Nembhard, Jackson/Stix coming off the bench. That looks promising on defense.
Rafa
I think the Pacers need to stop turning the ball over (work on their counters when Hali gets trapped), make 3s, and continue to push. Even with better individual defenders if they continue to play at the fastest pace in the league and generally eschew gap help and double-teaming to limit 3s high-level creators will have huge nights. They didn't hold Joel to 2 of 15 when they beat the Sixers. I think these guys all still "got theirs' in the Pacer's big wins (they've had a lot of good wins). Hopefully, they can upgrade. Hopefully, the defense gets better over 82 games (it should). It honestly feels like the fans and team should be a little happier with where they are. I think the team should be looking to grind to better results defensively while systematically tweaking but not acting desperate. Maybe try Nasmith at the 3 more and play Jarace 10-15 for the next 3 weeks to see how it goes but remember the sky is hardly falling. Bucket getters will get buckets.
jay
Great work as always. Part of me wonders if the pacers should treat toppin the way the Knicks do Randle. He seems capable of doing more offensively than already allowed. Would it be possible to offset his defense by giving him more offensive responsibility and hoping to break even defensively with help when targeted?
