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Why Jarace Walker is a microcosm of the Pacers
🕑 Added 2023-10-21 13:30:02 +0000 UTC(My work at Basketball, She Wrote is typically paywalled. This article, as an in-depth breakdown of Walker's preseason and the balance between winning and development, is available as a free trial for everyone. If you're new here and want to support independent writing about actual basketball, please consider subscribing and/or sharing it around. Alright, on to the words about the Pacers.)
By: Caitlin Cooper I @C2_Cooper
In retrospect, this was probably foreseeable. After all, the signs were there. When Rick Carlisle spoke at Media Day, he talked for 3:30 before opening the floor for questions. During that span, when he was laying the groundwork for the competitive nature of camp and how the players would largely decide who plays, he made the following comment -- without being prompted:
"Whatever happens, we've got a great developmental situation with Tom Hankins coaching our G League team," he said. "My hope is that our young guys will be ready to contribute and that we can find some opportunities for them to play or that they flat out earn minutes, but if we get in a situation where those guys aren't playing much, we have the G League..."
Without reading too deeply between the lines, those words come across a bit like urging caution (perhaps based on what was already being seen behind closed doors at workouts ahead of camp), while also underscoring the overall mantra from preseason that spots in the rotation would have to be earned, rather than given. A few days later, the Pacers opened the exhibition slate against the Memphis Grizzlies and neither rookie played until after halftime, with Obi Toppin, Aaron Nesmith, and Jordan Nwora all logging minutes at forward before Jarace Walker, who was selected No. 8 overall in the most recent draft. After finishing his debut with 19 points, including four made threes, to go with nine rebounds and four assists, Walker leapfrogged Nwora in the pecking order versus the Rockets, subbing in directly for Toppin as part of a hockey rotation midway through the first quarter. Of course, Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner weren't in uniform for that game. When the projected starting lineup was available against Atlanta, Nesmith emerged as the back-up four, in what seems likely to foreshadow how the bench will take shape when the regular season begins on Wednesday -- especially given that Walker didn't enter until the fourth quarter against the Cavs.
That means, just as Carlisle indicated might be a possibility at Media Day, there's a solid chance that a consistent role isn't in the offing for the prized rookie, which seems less than ideal for a team that is still keeping an eye on development while also being justifiable for a team that wants to take a competitive step forward as far as winning. In that regard, Walker arguably represents the fine line that the Pacers are currently straddling.
To understand why, consider the valid reasons for not playing him, as they waver between moving forward with the intention of climbing the standings amid an attempt to also avoid skipping steps.
T.J. McConnell has played too well not to play
Here's a strange sentence: It's possible that the combination of WWE Fastlane and a kidney stone might end up having a far-reaching effect on the playing rotation this season. Alright so, that might be a bit of a stretch, but the fact that Tyrese Haliburton had to catch a later flight to Memphis after attending that event in Indy at the same time as Andrew Nembhard suddenly needed to be sidelined meant that T.J. McConnell wasn't just in the lineup for the Pacers; he was in the starting lineup -- as the only available point guard. There's no way to know what the intended course of action would've been if Nembhard had been healthy. In that event, maybe McConnell opens preseason as the third string point guard or starts out doing less of the steering alongside Nembhard. It seems more likely that Nembhard would've been expected to adjust, just as he largely did on Friday while working himself back into shape against a mixture of all-out switching and zone that had the initial fit of the second unit appearing quite clunky. Whatever the case, McConnell had free rein of the offense for a sizable chunk of the exhibition slate and once the juice he brings as a "serial paint-attacker" was out of the jar, there was no putting it back. Barring some missed shots and awkwardness against Cleveland, he's simply played too well not to play him, including during the intra-squad scrimmage at Fan Jam, when he got wherever he wanted to go, with his bench squad getting the win over the team with the projected starters.
At the start of the second quarter against Atlanta, he racked up five assists in five minutes, buzzing here, there, and everywhere with magnet eyes for shooters. Generally speaking, when the Pacers call "push" for McConnell, which is their terminology for pistol or early offense that features a ball screen along the sideline from the two-guard for dribble action followed by a flare screen from the center for the two-guard, the only question is whether the parts moving around him will convert on the shot that he creates with his penetration. Otherwise, it's practically a given that he's going to touch the paint, triggering the 45-cut from the opposite wing while getting a step on the switch or staying lower than his defender. This is instant offense and very little assembly is required.
The same can't always be said of his teammates, with some of them often in need of the subsequent ball screen from the five in the corner, only for the end result to be an offensive reset.
Put simply, he breathes new life into actions as though he is being propelled by a gust of wind. In order for him to provide that maelstrom of turbulence along the baseline and under the rim though, someone else isn't going to be out there. The someone else isn't going to be Buddy Hield -- not in a contract year when the possibility looms that he might be traded, which is to say nothing of the gravity he provides. Meanwhile, it doesn't seem particularly prudent for the someone else to be Nembhard, either -- not as part of the team's future when his role already has the potential to shrink more than it should. Unless playing both of them together proves to be untenable (which it might!), that leaves the four-spot, with a choice between Nesmith, Nwora, and Walker.
Nesmith has made progress as the obvious frontrunner
Last season, Nesmith attempted 18 pull-up twos in 73 games played. During preseason, he made four pull-up twos, while attempting five. Some of that is opportunity. With Nembhard sidelined, he played more often at the three, which allowed him to stretch his legs from above the break, curling off-ball screens into one or two-dribble pull-ups in the lane. He isn't necessarily a quick-rip player, who can routinely beat his defender from a standstill, so stopping to pop with screen help means he doesn't have to be quite as dependent on being spoon fed behind the three-point line. That might change if he makes the shift back to the four, but he's looked steadier on his feet with the strength he added during the offseason, particularly when driving to his left -- which can be dicey.
Again, if he's playing at the four in lineups that include Hield with McConnell and/or Nembhard running point, he probably won't be the player blurring in front of the ball to attack from the top of the key, but it's noteworthy that he got all the way to the rim and actually left-handed the finish without losing the handle or attempting a hanging bank shot. To that point, look at the difference from last season, when rather than putting the ball on the floor as the screener with the defense in rotation, he has to evade his man with a shot-fake and then drives into a crowd.
That's where hitting the brakes for a pull-up two will be useful. There's still spots where he's noticeably right-hand dominant, which results in more east-west to his off-the-dribble forays than would be necessary if he simply ripped the ball to his left and attacked baseline. Just look at how his inside foot touches the free throw line on this possession, despite the fact that he starts his drive from below the break of the three-point line.
That said, he still managed to keep the ball moving through traffic, and he's shot 9-of-18 on jump-shots compared to 6-of-22 for Walker, who also went 8-of-40 at Summer League. Granted, Walker underwent a minor procedure to remove loose bodies in his right elbow shortly after returning from Las Vegas, but he never made a catch-and-shoot three off movement during preseason and when he attempts those types of shots he has a tendency to drift backward and to his left -- almost like a sailboat catching a gentle breeze.
That's why a lot of his misses are short, which matters if he's going to be used more like a forward than a big. As he continues to sort out his shot, there needs to be a clear advantage to playing big in order to warrant giving him the nod over Nesmith. Defensively, Walker has sly hands, but there's been a number of times where he hasn't been ready to grab contested rebounds.
In that regard, this sequence isn't exactly a ringing endorsement for what would be gained in the immediate with him at the four as part of a more traditional lineup. In addition to missing the box out and bobbling the carom, he bites on the pump-fake and commits an unnecessary foul.
That's a rookie mistake.
Walker hasn't "flat out earned minutes"
To that point, Walker has looked a lot more like a rookie than Ben Sheppard, who arguably would be ready to play right now if not for the presence of McConnell, Hield, and Nembhard. In addition to making shots, Sheppard knows where to move when the ball moves, he crashes the offensive glass from the wing harder than anybody on the roster, and he's put together some impressive defensive stands squaring himself to the ball. Like Sheppard, Walker has shown the ability to make quick reads. Unlike Sheppard, however, he isn't always as likely to make the right read.
He can be a magnet for slipping out into space, even when an avenue is available to dart to the rim.
There's that gentle breeze, again! Meanwhile, he has a sneaky knack for keeper plays, but his sense of direction when operating out of hand-offs needs to point more often in the direction that Haliburton is clearly pointing. With the corner defender sliding over to tag the roll, this should be easy sledding for Bennedict Mathurin to turn the corner out of a hand-off at the wing. Instead, Walker doesn't even look that way and just ends up shuffling the ball back to Haliburton.
Some of his shot-selection, when he doesn't generate any separation and abruptly rises up from mid-range while leaning this way and that, has also bordered on wild. He can't be hoisting a long two with 12 seconds left on the shot-clock. This isn't going to be his role -- especially when Mathurin and Hield are sliding along the three-point line by his side.
At the other end, the Pacers have generally had him defending the corners, but when he's been involved in ball screen coverages and hand-offs, he's provided reason as to why he's largely been kept out of ball screen coverages and hand-offs. Remember, he mainly hedged at Houston, so switching out or chasing over at the four spot isn't what he's accustomed to. Moreover, some of the gambles that led to event creation at Summer League have been more damaging during preseason.
There's still plenty to like about Walker. He's nimble on his feet, he made a pass on the move with his left hand in his debut that Mathurin has yet to complete since being drafted, and he's compelling as a short-roller with his floater as a counter, at least when he agrees to roll and the opportunity allows. Plus, his shot is far from being broken. If he can put up a windbreak on his release and tamp down on some of his excesses, whether chasing the ball on defense or playing beyond his means on offense, the Pacers will have a player who can do a little bit of everything, both connecting and disrupting to their benefit. For now, he appears as though he will have to work his way toward that outcome, likely outside the rotation and perhaps with the G League, as the Pacers slowly reveal, in terms of record, what the endgame should be for the season.
On the one hand, Daniel Theis doesn't appear poised to be a regular contributor, likely in part because his age, 31, doesn't meet the timeline of the roster. On the other hand, however, McConnell could very well limit how much Nembhard handles for the second unit while also potentially squeezing Sheppard from the rotation, despite also being 31. Granted, Theis hasn't been as undeniable as McConnell, and Jalen Smith deserves credit for distinguishing himself from the crowd of back-up bigs with his production, but that dichotomy speaks to the overall balance that the Pacers are trying to strike, with Walker existing at the tipping point.
For that reason, his season, as far as with which team and how he develops, will be a microcosm of the season for the Pacers and where they go from here.
Comments
Caitlin Cooper
Thanks, Brendon. This feels like the step to the next step. After preaching that roles would have to be earned, they have to honor their word and try TJM-Nembhard. If it works, great. From a spacing perspective, it's going to be cramped for TJM to play off-ball. In the long-run, I still think Nembhard needs to be playing out of ball screens for him to show himself in his best light.
Brendon Bowlds
Love these kind of articles . I think we recognize that for our ceiling to be raised, Jarrace Walker, Nembhard, etc would be best served to find minutes. It's also a very nice reminder that TJ McConnell is one of the better backup PGs in the NBA and Nembhard has a tough route to minutes with Bruce Brown taking a lot of his role, and TJ McConnell having another role Nembhard could fill.
Thomas
Yeah, I still think he has all defense upside long term. I just naively hoped he would be a day 1 rotation guy and plus on defense. And that's just not how it goes for most rookies. Even ones who become great NBA guys. That game was the first reality check for me.
Caitlin Cooper
He's only 20, and the defense he played at Houston (in college) is very different than the defense he was being asked to play against the Houston Rockets. I would just urge patience.
Thomas
Jarace just looked so rough against Houston. That game really has me worried about his ability to be ready to contribute this calendar year.
jay
I think that there is much more bloom left on the proverbial rose that is toppin on both sides of the floor that he will achieve with this runway. I used to take the over on his assists when he was a knick and started and he'd always hit at least 3. I also think he has shown glimpses of self creation that can be nurtured in a staggered lineup if given opportunity. Really think this is the place he'll put it together. Hopefully he does, either way I'll enjoy basketball 🙏🏿
Caitlin Cooper
Hmm. I went back and watched the picks he defended as the on-ball defender from last night. He gave up a floater out of an empty-side PnR and got beat once fronting the post after switching. Otherwise, he stayed attached for an illegal screen, switched twice with Nesmith for stops, and got back in front to force a pass-out. If the on-ball defender isn't back in front by the time the ball breaks the free throw line, the Pacers want that player to veer into the roller as a late-switch. I do agree, however, that Nembhard has more upside as a defender and overall player.
Caitlin Cooper
I think the spot needs to be Nembhard's -- eventually.
Caitlin Cooper
I think the preseason circumstances made it difficult to adjust TJM's role. We'll have to see what the approach is once Nembhard is back to being in condition.
Caitlin Cooper
That was always the "downside" to trading for Toppin, if there was one. If he outperforms expectations, he's going to be a bit of roadblock for the player they just drafted. That said, Toppin, as an archetype, doesn't seemed to be as valued by the NBA in the playoffs as what could possibly be the case for Walker at some point down the road. We'll have to wait and see.
jay
I really like Jarace, but I feel like the pacers with obi feels like a team that can be a 6th seed if healthy and if that happens I wonder if he'll end up suffering a similar fate obi once did.
Caitlin Cooper
Thanks so much, Scott!
Scott Bolander
The quality of the analysis and the quality of the writing is excellent.
Ross Fenimore
It is hard. TJ is undeniable. They were a bit sticky on the ball last night with Andrew playing at the 2 with the reserves. They seem to have a bit more of the - break in case of emergency box - in terms of creation and shot making with Nembhard. Not that TJ is bad - he has his great spots. I just see Andrew more as a three level scorer. There’s just no way to me that Buddy doesn’t toggle into minutes between the backups and starters.
Ross Fenimore
Yes, I also see this. Great catch.
Keith Correll
Walker looks a good year away from the rotation. And the Pacers definitely need another big forward behind Toppin. It’s time to make the call to the Wiz and get Deni. Nesmith plus something should do it. Aaron might even start ahead of Kispert. I’m a big Avdija fan and it would relieve some of our backcourt logjam. Hope it happens…. :)
Trenton
Great read as always. One thing I've noticed in the last 2 games that has me lower on McConnell is how easily he gets screened off the ball. In comparison, Nembhard & even Shepherd fight through much better in my opinion. TJ might be a bit better rounded on offense, but I think by the end of this year if he's still on the team he'll be on the outside looking in as he just gets beat repeatedly on the other end.
Lifenthusiast
I like the intertwining of his season with the others mentioned. Double (quadruple?) edged sword that speaks to the conditions having a deep, young roster creates. Rose colored glasses tell me the Pacers need to keep and develop all assets, but reality reminds me that a trade is on its way.
Kyle Taylor
I love watching TJ play basketball, but man if his inclusion in the lineup means less reps at the 1 for Drew and contributes to Jarace not playing... Also, it’s a bit odd to see signals that “doesn’t fit the timeline” will be applied to Buddy (downgraded to bench) but not TJ (keeps exact role) by the coaches/org.
