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Who should come off the bench for the Pacers?
🕑 Added 2023-10-01 13:34:00 +0000 UTCA detailed attempt to project the pecking order for the second unit
By: Caitlin Cooper I @C2_Cooper
When it comes to the starting lineup for the Pacers, there aren't that many unknowns. Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner are locks. After reaching agreement on a contract that will make him the highest paid player on the team, it seems unlikely that Bruce Brown is going to earn $22.5 million to come off the bench. Meanwhile, as can probably be inferred by the trade rumors swirling around Buddy Hield, as well as the fact that Hield was already playing with the second unit at the end of last season, Chad Buchanan recently confirmed that Bennedict Mathurin will be opening camp as part of the first unit. That leaves just one spot up for grabs, with Obi Toppin and Jarace Walker probably most poised to land it. Of course, if Mathurin's rookie experience is indicative of anything, it's possible that Toppin may already be in early pole position. If that's the case, there's arguably a lot more up in the air about the composition of the second unit, especially given the depth of rotation-caliber players on the roster.
Assuming that Toppin gets the nod over Walker (which, just to emphasize, is only an assumption at this point), there's plenty to be considered about a group that includes both young players and veterans, with the answers as to who should play at certain spots perhaps having more to do with the implications for other players than the players directly in play for those spots.
What follows is an attempt to parse through it all, organized by projected hierarchy.
Sixth Man - Buddy Hield
Contract negotiations are at a halt with Buddy Hield, but a trade reportedly isn't imminent. For as long as he remains on the roster, it makes sense for him to be the first sub off the bench. After all, the wavelength he possesses with Haliburton is undeniable. In addition to being the No. 1 assist combination in the NBA on made threes, the Pacers posted a positive net rating when those two were on the floor together (+0.72), compared to getting outscored both when Haliburton played without Hield (-7.99), as well as when Hield played without Haliburton (-6.35).
For a team that wants to play fast, Hield led the league in three-point attempts coming between 22 and 18 seconds on the shot-clock. He sprints to the line in transition, where Haliburton typically has magnet eyes for the sharpshooter, either resulting in a hit-ahead pass for a quick shot, with Hield seemingly living by the mantra that he's never more open than when he first catches the ball, or triggering a domino effect from the closeout. In the half-court, meanwhile, Hield greases the wheels with his gravity, ghosting the switch for Haliburton to get downhill. According to Second Spectrum, Hield set more guard screens for Haliburton last season (340) than the five-man combination of Mathurin, Nembhard, McConnell, Nesmith, and Duarte (308).
For example, just look at how he reignites the offense, running in front of the ball as if he were lighting a match to goad Joel Embiid into switching off from Haliburton and then maintaining the big man's attention on the perimeter, with only James Harden left to protect the rim. In that way, the invisible string that connects Hield to Haliburton can sometimes act like the rope of a tug boat, pulling opposing bigs out to sea.
In addition to taking advantage of their shared chemistry and his spacing, there also might be organizational reasons to continue playing them together. Hield produced as a reserve, averaging 13.9 points while shooting 44 percent from three on nearly the same volume of attempts per game (7.1) as he hoisted as a starter (8.6), but what if some of the games where he faded into the background during January when Haliburton was sidelined start to become more prevalent in the event that the sharpshooter plays more staunchly with the second unit and doesn't sign an extension? Would that have an impact on his trade value, whatever it may be?
It's probably not worth chancing, particularly when taking into account that Mathurin's usage swung from 19.9 percent in the minutes he played with Haliburton last season to 26.7 percent when Haliburton was on the bench. The Pacers need to take the long-view with Mathurin. He should be the starter so they can determine his fit with Haliburton and assess how he adjusts to the changes that are likely coming for him in Year 2, but there's a way to do that while still allowing him to stretch his legs as a scorer: swap him out early for Hield and bring him back in to play with the bench.
Of course, if that's the arrangement, there's some potential for defensive concerns. Remember, last season the Pacers were playing lineups with four guards. If they were playing the Cleveland Cavaliers, for example, Haliburton would be matched-up against Isaac Okoro and play aerial ace, with Nembhard and Nesmith taking Garland and Mitchell. This year, Bruce Brown will of course be assigned to one of them, with Mathurin likely pressed into guarding the other. Unlike when Nesmith was playing at the four, that responsibility isn't going to fall on Toppin. As a result, when Hield subs into the game, that means he might also have to weather the storm against top-scoring options, when last season he would've been hidden away, guarding Jarrett Allen.
Still, it isn't as if Mathurin has established himself as a stopper, so the drop-off won't exactly be exaggerated. He should pass the baton to Hield, at least until Hield permanently hands it over to him, perhaps after being traded to another team, who knows?
Seventh Man - Andrew Nembhard
If the Pacers are taking the long-view with Mathurin, the same needs to be the case with Andrew Nembhard. Haliburton typically plays most of the opening frame, averaging 9.7 minutes during first quarters, so the argument isn't for Nembhard to enter at point guard. Instead, bring him in for Brown (or Toppin, if playing small suits the match-up) and allow him to get reps next to Haliburton, so as to provide a peek at what the offense might look like while playing two pick-and-roll guards together at the same time. Then, when Haliburton comes out, Nembhard can take over the reins for the bench.
The numbers don't support this strategy. The Pacers got outscored by 14.0 points per 100 possessions in the 673 minutes that Nembhard played without either of Haliburton or T.J. McConnell on the floor. Of course, some of that might have to do with the fact that the Pacers pivoted to development mode at the end of the season. He also started to hit a bit of the rookie wall, while also battling illness, when Haliburton was sidelined during January. Beginning with the game when Haliburton got injured against the Knicks on January 11, Nembhard shot 22 percent from three on an average of 2.4 attempts over his next 22 games. With the exception of that segment of the season, though, when it appeared as though he might've made a slight tweak to his shot, he drained 41.8 percent of his threes.
He also had a terrific Summer League, moseying to his spots in the pick-and-roll and earning rave reviews from the sidelines for his defense. In that regard, despite racking up a few too many turnovers that Haliburton is capable of limiting even with adventurous playmaking, another commendation for Nembhard's play in Las Vegas is what happened when he was no longer playing in Las Vegas, -- when the team struggled to manufacture flow in the half-court with Jarace Walker and Isaiah Wong shoehorned as primary initiators. Granted, it was only two games, and Nembhard can certainly oscillate as a lead ball-handler, from going 0-of-4 during the fourth quarter against Charlotte, while struggling to maneuver around the rim against drop coverage, to making magic out of drag screens the next night in Toronto, in the process of dusting Will Barton and getting downhill against Fred VanVleet for 25 points and 10 assists.
Still, whether faking finger-rolls for late-lobs or throwing darts to the opposite corner with his left hand, Nembhard has shown enough with his feel as a playmaker, in manipulating the defense instead of just probing it, to think that it would be a mistake to shrink what his role was as a second-round pick who became a key starter into being a back-up point guard who doesn't actually run point. None of this should be taken as an indictment of T.J. McConnell. With his willingness to motor the ball from end-to-end and keep it moving in the half-court, he fits the team's playstyle and brings feisty defense with his cat-like reflexes and ball pressure. There was a reason why he leapfrogged Nembhard and started for some games when Haliburton was sidelined during January, and there was also a reason why he was pulled from the third-to-last game of the season against the Knicks with 6:11 to play, despite tallying 18 points and 12 assists in 22 minutes. He's capable of contributing to winning basketball, but if he plays, Nembhard will most likely get relegated to playing away from the ball, which doesn't seem as though it would be in the best interest of the franchise, regardless of if they view him as a potential starter next to Haliburton or the means to eventually upgrading the talent around Haliburton.
Either way, just as the Pacers need to evaluate Mathurin as a starter, they also need to know what they have with Nembhard playing more often out of ball screens. He averaged 14.7 potential assists in the games he started at point guard. To put that number into context, Ja Morant averaged 14.1 potential assists last season, which ranked seventh in the NBA among qualified players. Nembhard has some limitations as a scorer. These types of possessions, where he truncates his dribble, allowing the on-ball defender to get back in front even when the big is in retreat, go a long way to explaining why he posted the lowest free throw attempt rate among the 81 players who averaged at least eight drives per game last season.
Tellingly, per Second Spectrum, despite recording a higher blowby rate on drives (19.3 percent) than McConnell (15.4 percent), Nembhard only finished 3.7 of his drives per 100 possessions with a shot near the basket, compared to 8.5 per 100 possessions for McConnell. Whether Nembhard can warrant siphoning pick-and-roll possessions from Haliburton's artistry for the purpose of lessening the star guard's burden against exaggerated coverages remains to be seen. In the meantime, however, he should at least be deployed to wield his defense in minutes with Haliburton, while steering the ship for the second unit when Haliburton is on the bench.
Eighth Man - Jarace Walker
The reasons for slotting Walker in at this spot are many. Depending upon whether Nembhard enters for Brown or Toppin, this could just be a simple swap at the same position, exchanging Toppin's offense for Walker's defense. Secondly, if the Pacers want to unlock his passing, then there's a case for trying to eke out some playing time for him when Haliburton and Turner are still on the floor. As was laid out in a prior mailbag, something the Warriors do with Draymond Green that could be interesting to try with Walker is setting a flat away screen out of what they call "quick" and the Pacers refer to as "wide" action, only for the four-man.
That's what the play is here, when Golden State was leading Sacramento 112-111 with 45 seconds left to play. Following the initial screen from Kevon Looney, notice how Draymond turns the ball downhill after faking as though he was going to pitch back to Steph Curry.
To be fair, Steph is arguably the greatest shooter of all time, which opens up cracks in the defense that might not otherwise be there, but Draymond also deserves credit for the set-up, as well as the feel he can demonstrate when beating the timing of switches. There's reason to think those types of actions could grow to sit well on Haliburton with Walker, who also has a sneaky knack for keeper actions. After all, if Sabonis is going to stay attached to Looney at the wing, then why wouldn't the same be true for Myles? Also, if Walker enters for Toppin, then Nembhard and Hield would be dotting the corners, which means the low-man responsible for helping at the rim is going to be a guard.
In Las Vegas, Walker made two shots at the rim in the half-court. Notably, one of them came with him flipping around as the first screener of a stagger to come get the ball and fake the hand-off, providing him with a more straight-line driving angle against a tilted defense.
All too often at Summer League, he was either getting pushed out to the perimeter or trying to float the ball over a crowd while being asked to do too much as a primary initiator. With Haliburton and Turner still on the floor, however, he might have more of a chance to demonstrate some of the flashes he's shown as a savvy short-roll passer. That's a useful skill to have, especially when he can counter for teams who don't tag up with his floater, but it's only as effective as the lead guard he plays with commanding teams to come out and be more aggressive on the perimeter. Put simply, he's probably not going to get the ball in those situations if he's playing with a non-shooting point guard, as far as pulling up from deep.
Of course, there could be some potential fallout for Turner. If Walker is playing within the action, then Turner will be spacing to the perimeter, which means he might find himself cross-matched against opposing fours. Over the last two seasons, Turner has shot 40 percent from deep when defended by fives (58-of-145), compared to 32 percent against forwards (53-of-165). Before Sabonis was traded to the Pacers, this is often what happened when Thaddeus Young started next to Turner. When the Pacers played the Sixers, for example, Joel Embiid would defend Young in order to stay near the basket, with Ben Simmons guarding Turner. In order to keep Simmons from switching onto the ball, Turner would generally get marginalized in the offense. That said, if Walker's off-ball defensive instincts can lead to improvement on that end of the floor (perhaps allowing Turner to go back to his more natural role of swallowing up pick-and-rolls), then maybe the trade-off will be worth it. In that regard, it's also possible that the Pacers will prefer to try Walker as a spot-up option, testing his shot while potentially developing him to pump-and-go.
At any rate, whether for the sake of exploring other aspects of his game or just with the intention of getting a secondary rim protector on the floor, Walker should at least play *some* minutes with Haliburton and Turner, assuming he doesn't wind up in the starting lineup.
Ninth Man - Aaron Nesmith
If Buddy Hield remains in tow, the next man up will likely be a toss-up between T.J. McConnell and Aaron Nesmith. As has already been explained, there are potential complications to playing McConnell in lineups with Nembhard and Walker -- especially if Isaiah Jackson ends up being the back-up five. If McConnell is the primary ball-handler, Nembhard won't be stirring the drink for the second unit. Likewise, if McConnell is dribbling off the screen, his defender is likely to duck under, which will limit Walker's access to the short-roll.
To repeat from this month's mailbag, though, there are ways to work around that. Here, instead of using the ball screen, McConnell pitches the ball ahead to Turner for the keeper. Then, because the play is already set up for Hield to set the stack screen in the paint, the action effectively becomes inverted pick-and-roll for Turner.
That would allow Walker to get rolling downhill and either stop-and-pop against the smaller defender or perhaps draw help from one of the corners, but consider who would be in the corners. If that's Jackson, Walker's elbow room in the paint is going to be cramped, and his physique already doesn't match his physicality as far as lowering his shoulder and bludgeoning his way to the front of the rim. Nembhard, meanwhile, would be dotting the other side, rather than piercing the defense. None of that is exactly ideal for either player's development. Walker might be able to play with McConnell or Jackson, but probably not McConnell and Jackson.
This opens the door for Nesmith, who led the team last season in the percentage of his made shots that were assisted. His shot can be fickle, but by virtue of the fact that he needs to be fed, he spends the majority of his time existing on the periphery of actions. In that way, what puts a cap on his overall upside as a starter, makes him appealing as an option to catch passes on the perimeter from Nembhard and/or Walker. Jordan Nwora could also receive some consideration. By comparison, he's more well-rounded on offense than Nesmith. He flashed some secondary skills after being traded from Milwaukee, and if the offense stalls, he can create some separation for himself or pilot the pick-and-roll in a pinch. That said, he gets hunted on defense. Immanuel Quickly looked for him under every rock and tree during the fourth quarter of the final home game against the Knicks, and the Raptors repeatedly ran 1-4 pick-and-roll to get him switched onto the ball, followed by a second pick-and-roll involving the center so as to force him to chase over the screen. It didn't go well. He either got crunched by the pick, or when Nembhard tried to jump-switch onto the ball, he was late peeling off to the perimeter.
Nesmith has more two-way value, at least when he isn't fouling. Last season, Nesmith ranked 10th in shooting fouls committed per 100 possessions, leading all non-centers. It's possible his war with the whistle will be less damaging in a smaller role. With the second unit, he won't be matched up as often against top-scoring threats. Furthermore, with Bruce Brown in the fold, the Pacers shouldn't be as affected if he picks up two quick fouls. They have more options now.
At the risk of an awkward segue, that also applies at the five position, where it will be interesting to see if Walker enters the chat. If Nesmith subs in for Turner, then there would be a brief spurt of minutes in which the Pacers could get a glimpse of Walker as a small-ball five. Admittedly, it probably wouldn't be ideal for that wrinkle to happen when Haliburton and Hield are both on the floor at the same time, but maybe other substitutions could occur in tandem that would provide additional support with Nembhard and Nesmith already available to wall up on the perimeter. The Pacers tried this at Summer League, and they got burned on both sides of the pick-and-roll. Chet Holmgren kept getting loose darting to the rim, where all he had to do was drop the ball in over the top of the switch, and Walker gave up separation to the ball-handler.
Still, it's been two seasons and there is yet to be clarity as to Isaiah Jackson's ideal pick-and-roll coverage. It seems like there could be some value in seeing which of them projects to be most effective as a small-ball five, especially since, to this point, Jackson has more so been a five who is small. In addition to providing breathing room and staying out of the way, Nesmith's low-usage offense and willingness to run through a brick wall on defense offers as a means to an end with regard to fact-finding, if not for himself than in the interest of Nembhard and Walker.
Tenth Man - Choose a big
When the rotation carousel of bigs finally stops spinning, whoever emerges from the dizziness might end up having more to do with how that player centers those around them than whether they manage to stagger their way to the front of the pack. If McConnell is supplanted by Nembhard as the back-up point guard, the Pacers might be able to get away with playing Jackson next to Walker. The argument for doing so is more about Nembhard than Jackson. According to Second Spectrum, the Pacers scored 0.953 points per chance on pick-and-rolls when Jackson screened for Nembhard, compared to 0.774 points per chance with Jalen Smith as the screener. With Jackson's forgiving catch radius and vertical pop, Nembhard can slalom to his spot and throw a late lob for the bouncy big man to throw down. Jalen isn't as ferocious leaping off two feet and doesn't always hit the gap at the right time, which puts pressure on his hands to catch passes in traffic.
For Nembhard, who can throw skip passes to both corners, Smith also doesn't possess as much roll gravity. Per Second Spectrum, he was tagged on just 15.7 percent of the screens he set for Nembhard, whereas Jackson drew an extra defender on 30.6 percent. As such, if the decision was only about the pick-and-roll ballet and maximizing Nembhard's playmaking, the answer would be Jackson. But alas, there is also the other end of the floor to think about, along with the rest of the lineup. Last season, Smith shot 27.7 percent on catch-and-shoot threes, which ranked last among the 169 players in the league who hoisted at least 150 attempts. And yet, he posted a slightly lower rate of short closeouts (27.2 percent) than Myles Turner (29.2 percent), who was far more accurate from deep. It doesn't make sense, and Smith can at times be indecisive when making shoot-or-drive decisions, but there were some opponents last season who stunted toward him from the weak-side when he popped out to three.
Jackson, meanwhile, attempted 14 catch-and-shoot threes last season, and he made two. Smith shot the ball poorly, but at least he shot the ball -- and, at times, forced the defense to react. If Jackson plays with Walker, the opportunities for Walker to be the screener moving toward the basket will be more limited. There are ways to finagle the spacing. Walker might be able to throw a few lobs to Jackson in the dunker's spot. Or, maybe, Jackson screens for Nembhard at the wing, with Walker standing at the opposite slot. Then, when his man high tags, Nembhard could advance the ball to Walker to flow into a hand-off with plenty of airspace to shoot. But again, both of those wrinkles are at least somewhat dependent upon the ability of the primary ball-handler to rise and fire with a quick trigger. Otherwise, Nembhard might end up operating out of a broom closet, with Walker pigeonholed into finding open spots on the three-point line.
Defensively, Smith is ahead of Jackson with his positioning in drop coverage. During Summer League, words like "through the screen," "square," and "veer" could be overhead echoing from the sidelines, which could be an indicator that the main squad might be gearing up for the possibility of funneling the ball to the middle of the floor. If so, Jackson generally swats more shots rotating to the rim, than with the ball coming to him at the rim. His ground coverage and propensity for fouling seem to suggest that he should be unleashed more frequently as a weak-side roamer, but that would require playing someone else with him at the five and he has a tendency to stand up away from the ball when he isn't directly involved in the action. Overall, there may not be an overwhelming "right" answer for who the anchor should be for the bench defense; however, if the goal is to be in the right place at the right time, the edge goes to Smith.
Fresh off winning gold at the 2023 Men's FIBA World Cup, Daniel Theis also looms as an option. In seven games played, he ran more hand-offs per 100 possessions (14.9) than Smith (9.2) and Jackson (9.3), according to Second Spectrum. Although the Pacers typically prefer to speed roll out of picks, particularly when the defense is pressuring at the level of the screen, Theis also posted a higher rate of contact on screens (63.3 percent) than either Smith (55.8 percent) or Jackson (50.8 percent). When Theis was on the floor, the Pacers recorded a slower offensive pace in terms of seconds per possession (14.8), than when he was off (13.95). That may not be a fit for a team that aims to run off makes as well as misses, but there's no denying the way in which he's capable of lubricating the offense in the half-court, at least relative to the other options.
Here, for example, because Nesmith is already open pre-DHO, Theis punishes the under by pitching the ball ahead followed by an angle adjustment on what becomes a phantom screen.
It's those subtle nuances and reads that make him a reliable connector, but if he's shuttling the offense from one action to the next, that could infringe on some of what the Pacers should be aiming to extract from Walker. All of which is to say nothing of the potential contract implications. Theis has a team option at the end of the year. If he plays and plays well, he might be able to drum up a trade market for himself (maybe?), but the Pacers need to make a decision on the fourth-year of Isaiah Jackson's rookie deal prior to the start of the season. At the same time, if either of Theis or Jackson plays and Jalen Smith doesn't, that would all but insure that Smith picks up his player option next summer.
Regardless of the size of the cap hit, the additions of Walker and Toppin make it all the less likely that the Pacers are going to play lineups with two of Jackson, Smith, Theis, or Turner on the floor at the same time. And therein lies the difference: If the Pacers were overloaded at any other spot, there might be a way to find minutes for multiple guards who function like wings (hey, they tried this last season!) or even wings who play as point guards (hey, imagine having a wing-sized player!), but that's a lot more challenging with multiple centers. Remember, after Smith was removed from the starting lineup last season on December 12 against the Miami Heat, the Pacers logged less than 100 minutes with more than one "five" on the floor. That's why this logjam needs to be rectified. Because even if the Pacers don't immediately fill the roster spots, or they end up creating a logjam at another position, at least they will have the opportunity to evaluate players who, in theory, might have a better chance of playing together.
Whether it be Jackson's chemistry with Nembhard, the "spacing" that Smith could provide for Walker, or the overall dependability of Theis, there are justifiable reasons for picking any of the three, what's more important, along with the impact those choices could have on players in need of development, is that a choice is made.
Comments
Caitlin Cooper
Of course! Thanks for reading.
Dylan Jacobsen
I am really excited for our bench this year. I know these take a lot of work for you to put together, thank you!
Caitlin Cooper
Thanks, Ross! It was a lot of work, for sure. Definitely a lot to weigh and think about with the second unit.
Caitlin Cooper
Wow, thank you so much! I'm really glad that you are enjoying my tiny corner of the internet.
Scott Bolander
This is extremely high-value content. Probably the highest quality content available in the Indy market across all sports. I wish there was someone at this level for the Colts. As it is, Tony East is 2nd in the market, again covering the Pacers.
Ross Fenimore
Woof! So much to unpack here. My stomach hurts thinking about the backup 5 carousel. It’s almost making me think you go boom or bust with Walker in the starting 5, because then at least Obi can play on the perimeter, but then you do the same thing to Turner in the starting lineup that you analyzed on Walker/Jackson’s lack of elbow room. It almost seems that things hinge on whether Walker can reliably hit a mid range to perimeter shot to where you slot him. Defensively he will help wherever. I don’t see Theis as a long-term option - and if they roll with him - the future answer seems to be neither Smith nor Jackson, unfortunately. To speak to everything else, I like the way you presented the Hield/Nembhard pieces. I expect those guys will oscillate between groups. And they should, they’re both tremendous players. I want to applaud how analytical and precise this article is. While it acknowledges why everyone feels up on this team, it cracks the real uncomfortable space as to why they’re not a top 3-4 team outside of the “they don’t have Giannis” reasons. Great work as always!
