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Buddy Hield, Bennedict Mathurin, & trading spacing
🕑 Added 2023-09-21 12:20:00 +0000 UTCAnswering mailbag questions about potentially trading Buddy Hield, making space for and with Bennedict Mathurin, and what it means for Haliburton.
By: Caitlin Cooper I @C2_Cooper
Michael Prather - What's your feel for extending Buddy, and what is a number that makes sense for the organization? It wouldn't seem to make sense with our cheaper, younger and more well-rounded potential starters on the wing, but his chemistry with Tyrese Haliburton seems real.
Well, this is certainly a timely question, now isn't it? According to The Athletic's Shams Charania, the Pacers are reportedly eyeing trade options for Buddy Hield after contract negotiations stalled out. The report also goes on to say that, while no deal is imminent, Hield apparently didn't feel "desired" by the proposed offer, whatever it was. As a quick refresher, Mathurin replaced Hield in the starting lineup for the final 11 games of last season, during which Hield averaged 14.4 points while shooting 41.5 percent from three on 7.8 attempts per game. With the Pacers pivoting to development mode, Haliburton only played in two of those games and Hield, uncharacteristically, missed two games due to illness. Still, those numbers, at least from the standpoint of volume, were an improvement over some of Hield's outings, sans Haliburton, in January when he, for example, only launched three 3-point attempts against Memphis and two versus the Nuggets, while being blanketed by tougher assignments.
It wasn't for lack of trying on the part of the Pacers, either. Just look at this possession against the Grizzlies. With Ziaire Williams spending the game planting his body between Hield and off-ball screens to disrupt the flow of the offense, Hield attempted to counter by sandwiching the top-lock and effectively creating a double-ball screen for Mathurin to get downhill.
On the one hand, that's a demonstration of how savvy and resourceful Hield can be as a screener. On the other hand, though, it also speaks to what can be Mathurin's single-track mind as a driver. Even with Jaren Jackson Jr. helping from the ball-side corner, Mathurin still attacks into the swarm of bodies, offering insight into why Hield wasn't quite as involved as usual.
In that regard, if the two sides aren't going to reach an agreement on an extension, there's a case that Hield's trade value may never be higher, especially if some of those types of games where he faded into the background during January while Haliburton was sidelined become more prevalent in the event that the two of them don't end up playing together as much. After all, while speaking with Stephen A. Smith on ESPN's alternate broadcast of the NBA Finals, Mathurin indicated that he anticipates being part of the starting lineup moving forward saying, “I feel like next year, I’m going to have a bigger role as that starting three wing and there are a lot of things I need to improve on.” Meanwhile, with Bruce Brown reaching agreement on a contract that will make him the highest paid player on the team, it seems highly unlikely that he's going to earn $22.5 million to come off the bench. Of course, judging by Kevin Pritchard's comments during exit interviews, the Pacers seemed somewhat non-committal about extending Hield, even before Brown was onboard, with role perhaps being a sticking point on a team with several young guards in need of minutes and experience.
"So, Buddy specifically. He's under contract for another year. So we don't have to early extend. We could. I love Buddy. There's some things that he does that's not on the court. The way he keeps practice light," Kevin Pritchard said during exit interviews. "But I think we've got to define his role next year. And if we can get a role where he's comfortable and we're comfortable, then I'm not opposed to (an extension). Now I'm not saying we're going to do it for sure, but I'm not opposed to it."
Hield produced as a reserve late in the season, but he's also entering a contract year, when players, for very obvious reasons, generally want to maximize their value with opportunity. To that point, his wavelength with Haliburton is undeniable. In addition to being the No. 1 assist combination in the NBA on made threes, the Pacers posted a positive net rating when they were on the floor together (+0.72), compared to getting outscored both when Haliburton played without Hield (-7.99), as well as when Hield played without Haliburton (-6.35). In jumping out of his skin for quicker inbound passes while peering over his shoulder for opportunities to advance the ball, Haliburton is the engine that powers Indiana's identity of pushing the pace off both makes and misses, but Hield is most definitely an extension of it.
He makes a difference. Not only in sprinting to the line in transition, where he led the league in both three-point attempts and makes, but with how he re-spaces the floor in the half-court and consistently ghosts the switch for Haliburton with his gravity. With Mathurin, Brown, and Toppin potentially replacing Hield, Nesmith and Nembhard in the starting lineup, the potential is there for the spacing around the pick-and-roll to become more cramped -- especially if the option isn't there to mix-and-match with Hield as sixth man. Still, the Pacers need to know what they have in both Mathurin and Nembhard moving forward. Without Hield, there will be less temptation to bump Mathurin as a starter if he needs time to adjust to the changes that are likely coming for him in Year 2. Also, if Hield isn't coming off the bench, then it becomes easier to find a spot for Aaron Nesmith in the rotation, regardless of what happens with T.J. McConnell. Likewise, the door might even be slightly ajar for Ben Sheppard, who projects to provide movement shooting and otherwise wouldn't necessarily have a pathway to playing time, despite tracking like a "ready-to-play" selection at No. 26 overall.
As of now, according to Charania, there "aren’t any current substantive talks with any other team," but for all that Hield adds on offense, which is a lot, there's reason to think that possibly taking a step back next season, as far as considering whether he's more valuable in a trade, might be worth taking a few, albeit patient, steps forward with Mathurin and Nembhard, especially if the dollars and cents don't align with Hield's likely change in role.
Steven Wasick: What are the chances that Bennedict Mathurin shoots at least 36 percent from three this season? Assuming he did that, do you think he'd be a better fit with Tyrese than Buddy Hield?
There were 169 players in the NBA last season who attempted at least 150 catch-and-shoot threes. Among those players, Mathurin ranked 163rd in conversion rate (30.8 percent), trailing only Scottie Barnes (30.1 percent), John Collins (29.8 percent), Jabari Smith Jr. (29.4 percent), Killian Hayes (29.0), and yes … Jalen Smith (27.7 percent). Oh hey, remember when Jalen shot 46 percent from three over his first seven games after being traded to the Pacers? Ahh, memories.
Anyway, this possession is instructive as to some of Mathurin's shooting struggles, as well as his fit alongside Haliburton by comparison to Hield. First of all, notice who is guarding him.
To be fair, it wasn't out of the ordinary last season for the Wizards to use Kristaps Porzingis as a weak-side rim protector, particularly against teams with floor spacing bigs. After all, just as Deni Avdija is defending Myles Turner, Myles Turner also spent plenty of possessions opposite Avdija last season for the same reason. Still, it's notable that Porzingis lined up with Mathurin, as the nominal four in this lineup, rather than T.J. McConnell, as the non-shooter. Whatever the case, when Mathurin screens for Haliburton, look at where the help comes from as Turner darts to the basket. Instead of tagging with the low-man, which would require Bradley Beal to step away from Buddy Hield in the corner, Porzingis sinks as the high defender to protect against Turner slipping out of the screen against the switch.
Now, watch what happens on the closeout. Remember, Porzingis is 7-foot-3 with an even taller standing reach, so even if his slender frame is positioned several feet away from Mathurin, his limbs are still going to be able to make up a fair amount of the difference. As such, Mathurin hesitates to let the ball fly in favor of doing what he so often does, which is to play out of triple-threat, jab stepping to his right with the intention of attacking to his left. The only problem is, Porzingis plays him to take away the drive. In response, Mathurin passes the ball onto Haliburton and gets it right back to attack again, but he misses several reads along the way.
For example, when Porzingis steps backward on his left foot, the opportunity is there for Mathurin to rise into his jumper. Meanwhile, Turner is under the basket with Monte Morris on his back, pointing for the ball to go to Buddy Hield for the entry pass. In addition to taking the in-flow shots that come to him, those are the areas where Mathurin needs to show growth in his second season. Granted, the ball eventually gets where it needs to go, but the window of opportunity closes with Turner in the post, and once Hield gets spooked out of making the pass by the specter of help on the back-side, T.J. McConnell has a demonstrative reaction in the corner when Mathurin proceeds to go, yet again, at Porzingis with the shot-clock winding down.
With all of that in mind, spot the difference when Hield is involved in the same manner and role, only with Jordan Nwora playing the four. With Hield setting the first screen of the double drag, Patrick Beverley doesn't sink to tag as the high defender from the wing like Porzingis did. Of course, some of that is because Alex Caruso is chasing over the screen and staying sticky at the point of attack rather than switching, but the point still stands that there's more urgency to keep close to Hield, especially on the catch.
Unlike Mathurin, Hield prefers to catch-and-shoot and isn't going to try creating against Beverley off-the-dribble, so he gets off the ball quickly and keeps moving, screening for Haliburton to get downhill out of split action.
In the end, although neither possession results in points, Hield demonstrates his value as a shooter, including when he isn't shooting, just by virtue of spacing around the initial action and then re-spacing to provide a bridge to the next action. So, to answer, if Mathurin is in the starting lineup, there's certainly a chance he'll shoot at least 36 percent from three next season. According to Synergy, he shot 36 percent on transition threes as a rookies, and he'll likely be responsible for sprinting to the wing for more of those opportunities with Toppin and/or Brown either filling the corners or racing to the rim. That will matter for shifting the defense and generating numbers advantages on the side of the floor with two players. If he can knockdown those shots at a similar clip on higher volume while also being less wired to automatically catch-and-drive, he'll certainly be a better fit next to Haliburton relative to himself, while also greasing his wheels for drawing contact at the rim, but he'll still have strides to make in matching how Buddy Hield wheels around the court to grease the offense for others.
Dan Favale: How do you think the Pacers can/will/should unlock Jarace’s passing with this roster? Any stylistic wrinkles or lineups that you think could position him to really shine, or do you not think they’ll look to emphasize the playmaking part of his game in Year 1?
As was laid out in the pre-draft breakdown of his game, Walker has shown flashes of being a canny short-roll distributor. That's a great skill to have, especially when he can counter for teams who don't tag up with his floater, but it's only as effective as the lead guard he plays with commanding teams to come out and be more aggressive on the perimeter. Put simply, he's probably not going to get the ball in those situations if he's playing with a non-shooting point guard. With all due respect to T.J. McConnell's 29-point, career-scoring game against the Milwaukee Bucks, when he shot 4-of-4 from three and Brook Lopez actually stepped out to show above the level of the screen, he generally isn't as equipped to unlock the short-roll as Andrew Nembhard, let alone Tyrese Haliburton, when it comes to pulling-up from deep.
Even so, if those two end up being pick-and-roll partners, this particular wrinkle could be nifty with Walker as the screener. It didn't happen often, but look at how McConnell pitches the ball ahead to Turner to keep out of wide-reject-stack, rather than dribbling off a screen that his defender would duck under. Then, because the play is already set up for Hield to set the stack screen in the paint, the action effectively becomes inverted pick-and-roll for Turner.
That would allow Walker to get rolling downhill and either stop-and-pop against the smaller defender or perhaps draw help from one of the corners. If that happens, unless Isaiah Jackson can crash behind the defense to catch a lob, Walker's playmaking would probably be better served playing alongside a big who can space to the corner. To that point, Smith obviously didn't shoot the ball well last season, but he at least shot the ball. Taken altogether, for the Pacers to take advantage of Walker's passing, he can probably play with one of either T.J. McConnell or Isaiah Jackson, but most likely not both.
If the choice is Jackson, who pairs well with Nembhard, then maybe the Pacers could consider leveraging the non-threat of Walker's shooting (in the event that carries over from Summer League) by stationing him at the wing. Then, when Nembhard and Jackson are running angled pick-and-roll, Nembhard could swing the ball to Walker. If his defender is sinking to tag Jackson, Nembhard could come and receive a hand-off, with plenty of space to shoot. Again, there's ways to find wiggle room for McConnell-Walker or Walker-Jackson, but neither combo is ideal with Walker as the trigger man and playing all three of them at once would probably be pushing it as far as being pressed, both figuratively and literally, for spacing.
Rehgallag: Do you believe in Obi's shot improvement from last season and do you think an athletic, 34-percent three-point shooter as a four would make teams less likely to cross-match forwards onto Myles? I know Obi mentioned playing in the paint more, but if he can shoot credibly enough and beat bigs off the dribble with his athleticism, it might make them less likely to cross-match. At least in my mind.
Toppin only played 75 minutes last season without a center on the floor, be it Mitchell Robinson, Isaiah Hartenstein, or Jericho Sims, so there isn't much to go off of as far as how he performs when being defended by fives. According to Second Spectrum, he had 104 drives last season. Of those drives, only seven came against centers. Turns out, the most telling game, if there can be a telling game on such a tiny sample size, came against the Pacers at the end of the season. That's because the Pacers, unlike most teams, cross-matched Aaron Nesmith onto Robinson in order to switch and take away the lobs. As such, with Julius Randle out, Isaiah Jackson was assigned to Obi Toppin as a weak-side roamer, which proved to be problematic.
Granted, Toppin is what the Pacers were willing to give up in this scenario, but Jackson doesn't need to be building a wall at the nail, when Nesmith and Nembhard have switched to defend against the screen.
That's a positive sign of Toppin's ability to knockdown shots with space, as opposed to cutting around the dunker's spot for quick-trigger threes, as he so often did during the playoffs after screening for the ball while being guarded by the weakest defender with Robinson tethered around the basket, but it's also a reflection of Jackson. The same also applies here, when Jackson isn't ready to guard, and Toppin easily turns the ball downhill out of the fake hand-off.
If Toppin can do that against stiffer match-ups (or, in this case, as it applies to the pliability of Jackson, less stiff match-ups), then yes, he would at least be able to punish opposing teams for defending him with fives, although the cross-matching might still be inevitable if he's the player moving toward the basket more often or if the defense prefers to keep passive size around the rim to load up on Mathurin's blind spots as a passer while also marginalizing Myles Turner.
Kyle Taylor - I've been thinking a lot about the projected starters. If I ran the numbers right, switching from Buddy-Drew-Aaron to Benn-Bruce-Obi = 3 fewer 3-point attempts per 36min and a drop from 39% 3PT shooting to 34%. Tyrese's paint pressure jumped up last year vs. 21-22, but I'd imagine teams pack the paint more against the starters if the percentages stay about where they are. In the pursuit of choosing starters that benefit most from playing with Ty (e.g. transition frequency/efficiency), is it possible that's also a combination of players that most hurts Tyrese himself and limits what he can do in the half court? How would you guard Ty in the half court when the starters are in and what are the likeliest paths for him to counter this?
Three-point percentage isn't always an accurate proxy for actual spacing. For example, Brown, Toppin, and Mathurin combined for 11.9 three-point attempts per game last season, and the Pacers averaged 100.8 possessions. As such, how they're defended on the roughly 88 other possessions when they aren't shooting is more telling of the team's breathing room. There's no publicly available measure for how far help defenders are willing to stray, but Second Spectrum data shows that Brown (29.4 percent), Toppin (21.2 percent), and Mathurin (14.4 percent) all saw higher rates of "short" closeouts last season than Nesmith (11.3 percent) and, especially, Hield (5.3 percent). Nembhard, meanwhile, found himself in the middle of the pack (18.3 percent).
With that information in mind, one tactic that teams might try with more aplomb would be going switch-to-blitz against Haliburton and forcing someone else, sans Hield, to beat them.
If that happens, then a possible counter would be using Bruce Brown as the screener, with him slipping into space as he so often did with the Nets, when he was playing at nominal center. Generally speaking, Nembhard is a heady passer. He made plays for others last season out of different actions that positioned him as a guard screener. In this case, however, he took an extra, unnecessary dribble that allowed Herro to recover, and he isn't quite as proficient on runners (33.7 percent) as Brown (39.1 percent).
Another option, as alluded to in a prior answer to this mailbag, would be sinking from Toppin as the four-man, whether defended by fours or fives, and living with catch-and-shoot threes. Even if Toppin shoots above his average on that night, that might still be palatable for the sake of collapsing on the roll, coming across the midline to load up heavy on empty-side ball screens, and protecting the rim while potentially staying out of unnecessary rotations. In that case, then as was described with Walker, one option might be to station Toppin above the break with Turner setting a screen for Haliburton at the opposite wing. Then, if Toppin's defender sinks to tag, Haliburton can swing the ball and then come up firing out of a hand-off with plenty of airspace. In both cases, Brown and Toppin would be leveraging themselves as lesser shooters.
Dan Burton: The importance of point-of-attack defense (POAD) in the NBA cannot be understated. POAD is arguably Haliburton's greatest flaw as a basketball player. What schemes and personnel would you like to see Carlisle & Co. incorporate to protect Hali on that side of the ball?
Unlike what happened during Team USA's loss to Germany at the Men's FIBA World Cup, when Tyrese Haliburton was running into contact and losing his footing while chasing Andreas Obst through mazes of picks, the Pacers already do quite a bit to shield him on that end of the floor, beginning with assigning him to lower usage wings. That way, he can play aerial ace without getting overpowered or knocked off the scent while navigating around screens. As was laid out in the article about how the NBA's In-Season Tournament will provide an early test for the Pacers on that end of the floor, however, there's likely to be a trickle down effect to that strategy this season, as more will likely be asked of Bennedict Mathurin, assuming that Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith aren't playing with the first unit, to take on tougher assignments. Think of it this way: If the Pacers are playing the Cavs and Haliburton is defending Max Strus, Bruce Brown can't guard Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell. Mathurin is going to have to take one or the other, at least when the starters are on the floor for both teams. At the most basic level, then, Mathurin will be critical to "protecting" Haliburton from those match-ups.
Schematically, the Pacers pre-switched Haliburton out of actions when he was being hunted, including sometimes even with Buddy Hield -- which, uhh, says a lot.
If they couldn't keep him out of the play, then they would provide emergency help at the nail, almost like they were dropping into a quasi 2-3 zone, triggered by the mismatch. Oh, dear.
On that note, if the Pacers are going to give up a wide open three anyway, maybe they should consider trying switch-to-blitz themselves more often, rather than providing passive help at the nail? In that event, they might at least force a turnover with the extra pressure. Likewise, if Haliburton is going to require so much insulation resulting in so much confusion, it might also be preferable to not give up the mismatch in the first place, with him stepping out to hedge instead. According to Second Spectrum, Haliburton only showed on a total of 34 screens last season. During the fourth quarter of the overtime loss to Boston in February, the Pacers went to hedge-and-recover in order to keep Mathurin, of all defenders, on Jayson Tatum.
Don't let the missed layup fool you, that "show" did very little to prevent Tatum from turning the corner. In that regard, Mathurin is going to need help from Haliburton to stay on the tougher match-ups, just as Haliburton needs him to take on some of the tougher match-ups. Otherwise, they're going to have to bank on the extra size from Toppin and Walker to provide secondary rim protection on the back-side of traps or shrink the floor behind the mismatches, with the latter using his length to closeout, albeit sometimes with reckless abandon.
Anonymous Sender: If the Cavs can improve on last season, they present an excellent model for a backcourt with two guards who are both pick-and-roll specialists. Should that be something the Pacers consider with Haliburton and Nembhard?
Oh hey, here's another answer to the prior question: Andrew Nembhard. In going from being a second-round pick to a key starter last season, Nembhard got on the floor because of his defense, and there's a case that he should continue to stay on the floor because of his defense. From his ability to be in the right place at the right time while calling audibles to the praise he earned for squaring his chest to the ball at Summer League, Nembhard brings defensive potential that those Cavs guards do not, nor does Haliburton. In that regard, part of the reason why Obi Toppin was screening for the ball during the Cavs-Knicks series was because he was the hiding place for Donovan Mitchell. Likewise, Jalen Brunson's highest scoring game of the series came when the Cavs tried to play 3-D chess, with Darius Garland as his primary defender in a type of pre-switch. The only problem is, Brunson just adapted by attacking without a screen.
Nembhard, by comparison, has shown flashes of doing things like this, in which he prevents Trae Young from getting a clean shot with multiple weak-hand contests.
That said, Nembhard doesn't possess Mitchell's scoring prowess as a pull-up threat, nor does he move and float into open spots along the arc and inside the paint quite like Garland, but when the Pacers are back to being a playoff team, pairing Haliburton with a two-guard who can run offense and defend multiple positions could be compelling against exaggerated coverages while also preserving him to push the pace in transition. For example, if Hield is no longer available to ghost the switch for Haliburton, then screening to get the switch, with Haliburton relocating and Nembhard driving toward the big and making plays 4-on-4, could become a more critical hack to avoid going against the likes of Bam Adebayo head-on. In that regard, the natural tendency of most bigs is to help on penetration, which would allow Haliburton to attack the switch through a closeout with the rim exposed, like so.
The starting spot should be Mathurin's to lose. His mastery of the dark arts of drawing contact puts him in rare company for rookies. Over the last five seasons, the only first-year players who have averaged at least five free throw attempts per game are Luka Doncic, Trae Young, Zion Williamson, Paolo Banchero, and Mathurin. That said, he also joins Kelly Oubre Jr. and Jaren Jackson Jr. as the only players in the league last season who recorded a usage rate above 24 percent while also posting an assist rate below eight percent. He needs to shoot when he's open. He needs to reconcile his preference for driving to his left with how infrequently he passes with his left, and he needs to get better on defense. If those things happen, and Nembhard doesn't improve or he stagnates while taking a backseat to T.J. McConnell with regard to playing out of ball screens and running offense for the bench, then none of this matters. But, if the opposite ends up being the case, then the Pacers will certainly have some decisions to make about how they view Haliburton and Nembhard, whether together or apart.
For now, if Hield ends up changing teams, the Pacers will have more opportunity to evaluate both sophomores, with each having more individual opportunity, while effectively trading places and perhaps also navigating a change in spacing as a result of the potential trade.
(This concludes the Buddy-centric and spacing-centric portion of the mailbag. There will be more to come about the rest of the Pacers, general basketball, and more.)
