Basketball, She Wrote
patreon
NBA Draft Analysis: Gradey Dick
🕑 Added 2023-06-16 13:00:11 +0000 UTCAnalyzing whether Gradey Dick fits the Pacers as well as they fit him
By: Caitlin Cooper I @C2_Cooper
Turns out, after bringing in Jarace Walker, Taylor Hendricks, and Cam Whitmore, the Pacers weren't quite done visiting with players projected to be in range for them at No. 7 on Draft Night. Ausar Thompson cancelled his meeting that was set for Friday, and Gradey Dick stopped by on Thursday. That means it's time for a fresh edition of Stock Up, Stock Down, wherein I cram study a player and then breakdown my findings, identifying reasons to be both bearish and bullish with frame of reference from a few specific games as well as for the Pacers.
For this dispatch, Gradey Dick stars as the subject, with the following games being viewed as a representation of both ends of the spectrum as far as production:
- Kentucky: 13 PTS, 4-11 FG, 1-5 3P, 5 REB, 2 AST, 2 STL, 3 TOV
- Texas: 21 PTS, 7-11 FG, 2-3 3P, 4 REB, 1 AST, 2 STL
- TCU: 19 PTS, 7-18 FG, 3-10 3P, 3 REB, 1 AST, 2 STL, 1 TOV
- Texas Tech: 11 PTS, 5-11 FG, 1-5 3P, 8 REB, 3 AST, 3 STL, 3 TOV
- Iowa State: 7 PTS, 2-6 FG, 1-4 3P, 1 REB, 5 TOV
Without further ado, let's deep dive.
Stock Up: Secondary skills
It doesn't take a lot of imagination to picture how the Kansas product would operate within Indiana's offense. Just watch Buddy Hield, who (very notably) is entering a contract year. Granted, Haliburton is the engine that powers Indiana's identity in transition, but Hield is very much an extension of it. Preferring to seek forgiveness later rather than asking for permission, Hield led the NBA in early threes taken with between 22 and 18 seconds on the shot-clock. Haliburton, meanwhile, is always peering over his shoulder, surveying opportunities to advance the ball before he even has it. That will pair well with Gradey, and vice versa. He's a pure shooter, with a multitude of gathers and can escape to evade closeouts in either direction.
If he plays for the Pacers, he's going to do a lot of stuff like this.
That said, although he shot an other-worldly mark of 56 percent on transition threes (25-of-44), he isn't "just" a shooter. He's a 6-foot-8 movement shooter with a high release, and he converted 58 percent of his shots at the rim in the half-court. Some of that is being propped up by his timeliness and hesitations as a cutter, but he can push the ball downhill and get to his pull-up attacking closeouts or out of hand-offs, and he has some flexibility in the air to go along with his touch despite not being overly explosive. At times, he combines all of those skills at once, while also flashing subtle hints of passing chops that aren't typically associated with players who are thought of as shooting specialists.
When playing out of triple threat, he'll use a stutter rip to attack baseline and then he'll find the opposite wing with a jump pass. Sometimes, with his left hand from the left side of the floor. He isn't necessarily manipulating the weak-side zone, but he is anticipating the defense's rotation to the corner and making the adjustment to keep the ball moving -- even if he's only making the pass before the pass for the assist.
As a shooter, he knows how to apply the wait, fake, sprint principle of coming off screens to set up his defender as the ball-handler. With a misdirection cut toward the baseline, he creates an advantage before coming up for the hand-off out of two-man game, so he can deliver the pocket pass.
There's reason to think that more of his passes might lead to assists with the Pacers, too. For example, Kansas often looked to shake him loose with an off-ball screen and rescreen by the same screener for the same cutter, like so.
That's similar to the action the Pacers run to bring Buddy Hield back to the ball. In this case, it's reasonable to ask why Buddy didn't curl to the rim with his defender trailing on the flare screen, but look at the difference in the spacing. With only one corner filled, there's no one to tag on the back-side. At the same time, Nembhard is occupying the lowest defender with a corner pin-in, and Haliburton is standing one pass away, which means there's less traffic for Hield to contend with when he draws the drop defender to him with the threat of his shot.
The result is a much simpler read for the passer than this, which led to a reset.
Plus, his height improves his vision. When he races out of the corner into a hand-off connected to a ball screen, he can pass over the top of an opposing big who is taking away his pull-up to find his teammate cutting the stunt.
All of which is to say that, Gradey isn't "just" a shooter with immense gravity and excellent shot preparation; he has secondary skills that have the potential to be even more lively in an offense for the Pacers that operates like a playground for movement shooters.
Stock Down: Possessions hunted
Defensively, the play context isn't likely to be quite as hospitable. Gradey isn't a lost cause on that end of the floor. He anticipates rotations and sticks his arms in passing lanes, but there's a downside where he can get caught overplaying off-the-ball, leaving him vulnerable to backdoor cuts or forcing his teammates to switch. When he shows his hands with his arms out, he becomes like the shadow of an object on the wall, projecting himself bigger than he otherwise appears.
Of course, when three of his teammates have at least one foot in the paint, it helps when the defense behind him is functioning as though his shadow is casting shadows. There's a similar effect when Isaiah Jackson earns a stop by switching out to the ball. As in, he isn't the only player defending the ball. He has reinforcements.
When the action occurs within the middle third of the floor, it's trickier to load up, which is what Texas figured out when they forced him to defend in space.
Eventually, after racking up a glut of possessions hunted (this isn't a stat, but it should be a stat), Kansas attempted to counter by pre-switching him out of the action, but that tactic also faltered. First, he didn't get the memo on the screen approach. Then, he was late connecting to the ball, creating space for the shot.
Needless to say, there were words exchanged after this sequence.
With or without Buddy, the Pacers already have to resort to that type of keep away with Haliburton. In fact, Buddy is sometimes even the player who gets thrown to the wolves to shield Haliburton from the action, which leads to a chain reaction with Mathurin showing help at the nail, resulting in a three from a simple advance pass.
Put simply, if Gradey pre-switches Haliburton out of the action, who is going to pre-switch Gradey out of the action? And, if they don't, where is the length coming from to shadow the cast of his shadow? In that regard, if Haliburton gets stronger and can avoid getting overpowered, it might be feasible. After all, Gradey is active in the gaps away from the ball and can use his lateral size to compensate for his lack of lateral quickness under the right circumstances. It's also possible that the Pacers will find other ways to tighten the screws at that end of the floor via the draft or free agency.
Whatever the case, Gradey fits what the Pacers do and has a chance to show even more of what he can do with the Pacers, but alterations would likely need to be made for him to do -- or, at least, not detract from -- what they need.
Comments
Ross Fenimore
Thanks for finding these! I really like that his dribble jumpers percentage is better. I knew you drew the Buddy comparison, which I didn’t mind, when discussing running him in similar action of the screen and fade. Could support those findings for sure with the requisite body control. That’s a good point on Kispert. He did seem to have difficulty with slowing momentum in order to shoot which does reflect core control, and would explain why he was a fish out of water attacking the rim on his true attempts (outside of the fact that wasn’t really his role in college). I watched him a decent amount this season and just thought he looked a lot more under control across the end of the season. Just thoughts. I appreciate your insight!
Caitlin Cooper
Catch-and-shoot: 38.4%; Dribble Jumpers: 46.1%. He has a lot of shot variety, shot difficulty, and gravity. I don't think you're going to see Kispert connect a stutter rip to a step-back going to his left. Kispert needed to improve his core strength. That's why he didn't get a ton of arc on his shot. He also didn't have the same shot readiness.
Caitlin Cooper
Just so happens, I have something coming out on GG in the coming days
Brendon Bowlds
I really like Grady's game. I just don't know if it's him over Jarrace. Jarrace carries a risk of adding yet another center again. That's like a never ending cycle for us. Never getting PFs, and always adding centers. I do wonder, purely on upside ability, who has a higher ceiling as a shot creator? Don't get me wrong, we need defense so badly. But there's so many great defensive players you can just trade for or sign via free agency every year. Shot creation, even at the lower tiers is VERY hard to get. With that said, which is the actual upside pick? Bennedict was an obvious upside pick last year, and one spot down seems we are out of upside range outside of taking these massive swings on guys like GG who could be playing in China if you don't hit.
Ross Fenimore
I’m circling back to this. I had equal questions about his efficiency as a shooter, but he seemed to have shore that up looking at some of the stats from in conference play (none of which were true slouch teams). I’m struggling to find his catch and shoot versus off the bounce percentages. One thing that comes to mind is how inefficient Kispert started out in Washington under a different role. Now he didn’t play with Tyrese or an All-NBA point guard, either, and he certainly found a better rhythm this season. But my concern comes with his relative frame size, which is bigger than Gradey’s. It makes it really hard to project whether he can be as efficient as Nesmith this year, and whether that’d even be worth using a lottery pick on.
Keith Correll
I know he makes a lot of shots, but I don’t like the motion. A lot like Nesmith. One motion, full body push jumper. Give me Julian Strawther.
Ross Fenimore
Great articles with context! I exit with more optimism than I came for his tools for sure. I do worry about his physical size and speed to do these things at the NBA level, as the game is simply faster and more physical.
