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NBA Draft Analysis: Taylor Hendricks
🕑 Added 2023-05-21 14:00:07 +0000 UTCFeeling out the UCF star's feel and what he projects to add in scheme versatility
By Caitlin Cooper I @C2_Cooper
With the Pacers owning five drafts picks and now knowing where they are selecting at 7, 26, 29, 32, and 55, the focus moving forward in these columns -- at least from the perspective of my expedited version of scouting -- can narrow to prospects who are likely to be available in those ranges, particularly at No. 7. That means the time has come for a fresh edition of Stock Up, Stock Down, wherein I cram study a player and then breakdown my findings, identifying reasons to be both bearish and bullish with frame of reference from a few specific games as well as for the Pacers.
This week, UCF's Taylor Hendricks stars as the subject, with the following games being viewed as a representation of both his highs and lows while also providing a window into some of his most recent outings, including a head-to-head comparison against Houston's Jarace Walker as another potential player of interest:
- Oregon: 9 PTS, 3-10 FG, 1-5 3PT, 9 REB, 1 BLK, 2 TOV
- Florida: 17 PTS, 8-11 FG, 1-2 3PT, 8 REB, 2 BLK, 2 STL, 2 TOV
- Houston: 17 PTS, 6-10 FG, 2-5 3PT, 7 REB, 2 AST, 4 BLK, 1 STL, 1 TOV
- Temple: 16 PTS, 5-8 FG, 2-3 3PT, 7 REB, 1 BLK, 2 STL, 2 TOV
- Ole Miss: 17 PTS, 5-11 FG, 1-3 3PT, 7 REB, 1 AST, 3 BLK, 1 TOV
- Miami (FL): 8 PTS, 2-9 FG, 1-1 3PT, 7 REB, 1 AST, 1 STL, 1 TOV
Let's deep dive, shall we?
Stock Up: Guard your yard
During exit interviews, players were asked all day about defense and what needs to change for progress to be made at that end of the floor. Buddy Hield, of all players, offered arguably the most pragmatic response, being realistic while also echoing a phrase that was trumpeted by Rick Carlisle repeatedly last season.
"It’s communicating, guarding your yard, being there for each other, having your teammate's back," Hield said. "I don't care what anybody says, nobody can guard somebody 1-on-1 individually. It takes a collective group. But yes, you have to be more physical. You have to be able to guard a guy for five seconds, two or three dribbles, and cut them off."
That's fair. On the one hand, preventing blow-by drives or dribble penetration off screens without requiring help or getting put into rotation seems a bit pie in the sky, especially with the roster as currently constructed; however, on the other hand, there really weren't many wrong answers for other teams when it came to formulating scouting reports as to who should be targeted.
Jalen Brunson went at Buddy Hield. Immanuel Quickley put a target on Jordan Nwora's back. Jrue Holiday torched every switch in sight, including the likes of Andrew Nembhard and Myles Turner. When Bennedict Mathurin wasn't on the floor to get snagged at the point of attack, the Raptors went with the classic tactic of switching the opposing power forward, be it Nwora or Aaron Nesmith, onto the ball, followed by 1-5 pick-and-roll. Worse still, Collin Sexton, Lauri Markkanen, Luka Doncic, and countless others hunted Tyrese Haliburton, with the added incentive of wearing him down as the engine of the offense. Put simply, while there were certainly bright spots to be found with regard to other aspects of the defense, "guarding your yard" could rarely be counted among them.
Taylor Hendricks, at least relative to his position, has a chance to change that. After all, it isn't as if the Pacers are replete with players who are 6-foot-9 and can defend in flashes at the point of attack. Kendall Brown might have a case, but his season ended prematurely after undergoing surgery to address a right tibia stress fracture. Plus, with the time it takes him to load his shot, he doesn't have near this degree of gravity, where his defender stays with him, rather than smashing down on the drive.
If the Pacers intend to continue with the same defensive scheme as last season, it's reasonable to think that Hendricks could augment what was asked of Aaron Nesmith, cross-matching against fives and switching ball-screens, with Myles Turner more often being assigned to low-usage wings. At his height and with a 7-foot wingspan, the UCF star has more size and length for position to go from defending Houston's Jarace Walker to erasing the separation created by a guard.
Additionally, he was a terror on the defensive end against Florida and can be very impressive defending in space and reangling driving lanes, all of which are areas where the Pacers were lacking last season. Just look at how he levels off the initial push in transition and then also takes away the baseline to completely curtail the ball from ever touching the paint. How refreshing, right?
Want to see something else that wasn't seen all that often last season? Behold, a compilation of on-ball defensive highlights! Forcing a pull-up two! Inducing the need for escape dribbles! Cornering the ball in the corner! It's a sight for sore eyes!
Meanwhile, he's also fairly adept at putting a cork on the ball with gap help in a way that might prove to be even more effective with Indiana. For example, when a defender for the Pacers gets beaten middle, the next nearest defender will often make a read to help switch onto the ball-handler with the beaten defender peeling back to the perimeter, as is demonstrated here by Nembhard and Nesmith.
In that context, rather than pouncing and then having to spring out for the closeout, of which he has a slight tendency to be jumpy, Hendricks would just be responsible for being sticky without fouling -- which can oftentimes be a struggle for Nesmith, who averaged 6.1 fouls per 100 possessions last season while routinely defending up a position, compared to 3.5 for Hendricks, despite logging most of his minutes as a versatile big.
Of course, as a freshman, Hendricks isn't without flaws on that end of the floor. In addition to shape-shifting between 2-2-1 press, 1-3-1 zone, and switching, UCF would frequently have Hendricks defend the corners, where they could take advantage of how quickly he can get off the ground, ferociously contesting shots as a weak-side rim protector. That will allow for greater scheme versatility alongside Turner as to assigning frontcourt match-ups; however, while lurking in tall grass, Hendricks can also occasionally get lost in the weeds. Here, after switching the cross-screen, he basically drops into a one-man zone and then appears startled when he realizes his man is open behind a pin-in screen in the opposite corner.
Meanwhile, for a team that finished the season ranking 30th in opponent offensive rebounding rate, Hendricks doesn't exactly seem primed to move the needle for the Pacers on the glass. As can be seen by how he gets pushed under the basket on the missed free throw, getting stronger will help. (By the way, fun fact: the Pacers also ranked 30th in opponent offensive rebounding rate following a missed free throw.)
That said, in addition to filling out his frame, he also needs to find a body, box out, and be an active participant. This isn't just a second chance. It's a third chance.
Still, according to PBP stats, the Pacers ranked 25th in first-chance points allowed per 100 possessions (i.e. points allowed minus second-chance point allowed). As in, the troubles on defense can't only be pinned on the rebounds they aren't snatching. Concurrently, if they improve on defense, they might also organically improve at snatching those rebounds. Think back to what happened against Eric Gordon, when he scored 19 points in the first half and the Pacers eventually had to resort to playing switch-to-blitz coverage in order to get the ball out of his hands.
On the whole, anytime they had to sacrifice a defender to stop the ball, they also were sacrificing a potential defender on the glass, which becomes even more costly when considering that Haliburton is often assigned to defend away from the ball where he already gives up size on box outs without the complication of also being outnumbered. In that way, even if Hendricks doesn't improve his own defensive rebounding, he might still improve the team's defensive rebounding just by virtue of the upgrade he projects to provide with his lateral size and ability to, as Hield describes, "guard a guy for five seconds, two or three dribbles, and cut them off."
It also bears pointing out that, although he's still learning how to play in certain respects, he consistently plays hard, even sprinting back to save this basket in transition with his team ahead by 17 points with under four minutes to play.
"At the end of the day, we know we have to improve on defense," Kevin Pritchard told the media following the draft lottery. "We have to get a competitive spirit that's even stronger than what we had, and we had a pretty good one this past season."
To a certain degree, that describes Hendricks -- a competitor who, from shooting 39 percent on catch-and-shoots to upsizing their scheme and upgrading their ability to contain, has the potential to make the Pacers stronger at what they already do while perhaps requiring more time (and strength) to add to what they are missing.
Stock Down: Finding the advantage
Watch Hendricks sprint the floor in transition, take note of his vertical pop, and observe how often he can be seen waving his arms in the corners like an inflatable tube man dancing around outside a used car dealership, and it's easy to envision the many ways in which playing alongside a primary ball-handler like Tyrese Haliburton will enhance his game as an off-ball scorer.
For example, this lob set, which oftentimes doubles as a means of forcing the opposing big to be late in ball-screen defense after sagging off, will most likely result in an alley-oop dunk for Hendricks, rather than being broken up by *checks notes* new friend Jordan Nwora. Just for frame of reference, the only players for the Pacers who finished with at least 35 dunks and 60 threes, as Hendricks accomplished in 34 games played, were Bennedict Mathurin and Myles Turner -- neither of whom reached both of those thresholds until after the midway point of the regular season.
Likewise, while the UCF product's handle and finishing are both currently lacking, there's also some obvious spots where the defense has time to catch-up that probably wouldn't be as prevalent with Haliburton at the helm. For the season, Hendricks shot 43 percent on layups in the half-court. Again, filling out his frame so he can play through contact will help, but his touch is (ahem) touchy and getting to the rim in a hurry can be dicey with how high he dribbles. Plus, he has a tendency to exhibit a strong-hand bias, which can lead to poor shot selection and not always attacking his defender's top foot. Still, imagine the difference here if the ball-handler had recognized the passing window a beat quicker and set him up to drift to the corner, where he shot 40 percent last season. That's the difference between a clean look from three and struggling to adjust against verticality after drawing help.
Of course, Hendricks could also be more resourceful. When the ball-handler dribbles at him, he could cut backdoor for a potential scoring opportunity with his defender in recovery, but he isn't always quick to find the advantage. Take this possession from the game against Temple. After completing the hand-off, he has a size advantage against the switch, but instead of making a quick swim move and establishing position in front of the rim, he just stands there as the weak-side defender eventually scrams out the mismatch.
Some of this also carries over to what reads he makes (and doesn't make) as a passer. A few minutes later, notice what he notices. When the screener slips into the paint, Hendricks recognizes that an opportunity might be there for him to advance the ball to the roll-man from the wing with a triangle pass. That's why he fakes as though he is about to throw it before foregoing the idea. If only he had the chance to ping the ball down the lane sooner, right?
Turns out, he agrees with that assumption. On the next trip down the floor, when virtually the same plays unfolds, he's ready to make the pass before he even has the ball. And, there's the rub. With the low-man committing to the screener, he needs to make the more advanced read, skipping the ball to the opposite corner, rather than predetermining his actions based on past experience.
His trouble with connecting dots can also extend to set actions, as well as when plays break down. Here, out of horns flex, he's so intent on painting by the number of the player that is zooming out of the corner that he doesn't notice his teammate is open under the rim, nor is he even looking in that direction.
Meanwhile, his out-of-pocket drives and attempts to get to the next action can want for purpose, as he just sort of ambles despite having an abundance of other options.
Those types of snags, born of not always understanding how or when to assert himself outside the action, matter more because he isn't impervious to changes in coverage within actions. This is probably the play that UCF called most for Hendricks last season. Similar to horns-get, which the Pacers ran as a means for Bennedict Mathurin to get downhill, jabbing and going to his left, with his defender trailing, the purpose is to get Hendricks a touch where he can attack with his strong hand. At times, so long as his defender is chasing over the picks, he demonstrates some flashes of shooting off-the-dribble and/or toying with screen rejection.
When the opposing team switches, however, he doesn't manage to mosey to his spot with near as much ease, as he gets pushed off his driving angle and makes touch seem like an abstract concept.
If his shot continues to fall and some of his issues with finishing prove to be correctable by spending time in the weight room, then he might be able to prevent some of the cross-matching that has bothered Turner while also spacing the floor for Haliburton, but there will be hitches if he can't find the advantage while operating in and around what's created by his teammates.
In that regard, while Haliburton seems likely to make the game easier for Hendricks, Hendricks will have to show that he can return the favor -- on offense, as well as defense.
Comments
Thomas
I said Walker but meant Hendricks. With Walker the playmaking and vision gives me a sense of offensive floor as a connector. With Hendricks the ceiling seems like it could be higher but if he never gets to 5+ 3PA per game on similar percentages I don't know what the floor is.
Thomas
Walker scares me as a prospect. I'm afraid to pass him because of the upside but the floor spooks me. If the handle and at rim finishing don't come along and he isn't able to up his volume from 3 I'm not sure how valuable he'll be as an offensive player. There are just a ton of questions with him and I don't have a good enough feel for him to project huge improvement or not. I do not envy Kevin Pritchard if he's available when the Pacers pick just a really hard call to make.
Caitlin Cooper
I wouldn't say that. My intention with these is just to present what I find. It's interesting though because they are very different players, where one has room to improve the other is solid and vice versa.
Caitlin Cooper
Of course!
Dylan Jacobsen
This was amazing, thank you
Nathaniel Street
I really enjoyed this one as well. Am I right to assume that you have a slight preference for Walker over Hendricks?
Keith Correll
I hope Detroit takes him at 5.
Jeff Hasser
I totally agree with this. It feels like Walker will end up being guarded by 5s. While Hendricks still has areas to improve his shooting and mobility make that far less likely. I also appreciate the Haliburton perspective to set him up better.
Andrew Dorrell
I was excited for this one and it didn't disappoint. Great read. Solving the Turner cross matching problem seems like the most vital consideration for the pacers in acquiring a 4 this offseason. For that reason I prefer taylor over walker at 7
