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Mailbag: How can the Pacers improve from here?
🕑 Added 2023-04-30 13:02:01 +0000 UTCAnswering questions about all things Pacers, including my trip to meet the Pacers
By: Caitlin Cooper I @C2_Cooper
Jeff Iles: I’m curious about the high points of the season, but specifically breaking the season into chunks - first chunk is pre-Haliburton injury (when they might be a playoff team) second chunk is during his injury, and the third chunk is when playoffs were no longer the goal. What were the high points from those chunks from your perspective?
Alright, after jabbering a bunch about former Pacers in the last mailbag, let's talk about the Pacers who are still currently Pacers, how about it? The first chunk has to be the win over the Miami Heat. In addition to both figuratively and literally ending the game with a franchise-record setting 10th made three in the final seconds, Haliburton went from going 0-of-9 from the field in the prior match-up and very notably not shooting while being used as a ghost screener to aggressively hunting the switch pocket and weaponing his range before receiving a ghost screen on the final possession. It was poetic redemption, and a dramatic transformation, not only on a micro-level with regard to how he was used on those specific possessions against that specific opponent, but also by comparison to last season, when he had more of a tendency to be deferential in those situations.
Rarely is there such a clear and defining moment of player development.
While he was sidelined, the Pacers went 1-9 with the only win coming against the Chicago Bulls. For the season, Myles Turner shot 66.5 percent on twos with Tyrese Haliburton on the floor, compared to 58.6 percent when playing without Indiana's star guard. In this particular game, however, he scored 26 points and only 36.4 percent of his made field goals were assisted. Instead, with the team in need of other modes and entry points of offense amid Haliburton's absence, Turner was leaned on more heavily than usual. He attacked Nikola Vucevic off the dribble, recording five drives while covering more ground and maintaining a lower center of gravity with his stride stop as a finishing move.
Moreover, with Buddy Hield setting multiple angled back-screens throughout this game for Turner to slide to the block, there also was a deliberate emphasis to search for advantageous post-up opportunities for him.
At the moment, he's still mainly a complementary scorer, but he exceeded expectations with the change in context -- much like his season as a whole.
Finally, in keeping with the theme of strides made by individual players, the latter portion of the season, when the playoffs were out of sight, belonged to the flashes shown by Andrew Nembhard and Bennedict Mathurin. The progress wasn't linear, particularly for the latter by any means, but there was the game against Milwaukee that was changed by Nembhard's rim pressure and there was also the stop earned by Mathurin after he got switched onto Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, featuring a weak-hand contest, that stand out as fever pitches. Nembhard was steady at the controls against the Raptors, and Mathurin was repeatedly thrown into situations that would test his sea legs, whether drawing tougher defensive assignments or being tasked with creating from inside the wing. In the end, a season that was punctuated by the surprise of overachievement still managed to maintain a through line of fact-finding, finishing as it was intended to start, with growth as the main objective.
Luke: In my mind Nembhard can play off-ball with the starters or as the backup lead guard next year and will probably do both at times. But which role do you think he has the higher potential in, especially considering starter minutes will almost certainly be with Mathurin and Tyrese?
The words "higher potential" make this tricky to answer. As I wrote last month in response to a similar question, "It seems as though (Nembhard) won't be fully maximized unless the long-term vision is for him to consistently run offense in some capacity, whether for the bench or with Haliburton, perhaps, starting some possessions away from the ball." Over the last seven games of the season, in which Nembhard started at nominal point guard, he averaged 13.7 potential assists per game. To put that number into perspective, Jrue Holiday averaged 13.8 for the year, which ranked ninth in the league. Granted, some of that can probably be attributed to the machinations of the offense, but he showed a lot of guile running the pick-and-roll. Depending upon who the Pacers draft, there's a case to be made for keeping him in the starting lineup, even if only for defensive purposes, while also making a split decision and staggering him to steer the ship for the bench -- eventually, in place of McConnell.
He has more potential to show what he can do as a lead guard, but unless his scoring can warrant siphoning some pick-and-roll possessions from Haliburton, with the added benefit of lessening the star guard's burden, his potential for upward mobility -- on this roster -- will be limited.
Chris Underhill: While it is true that the Pacers improved their record by 10 wins over last season, they only improved their position in the standings by two places. The Pacers want to make the playoffs next season, but could you foresee a scenario where they improve their record markedly, but don’t improve their position in the standings enough to get above next season’s play-in teams?
Hmm...that depends on the depth of the Eastern Conference and what happens in the offseason, right? Here's what we know. Over the 48 games in which Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner both played, the Pacers posted a record of 26-22 and got narrowly outscored by 0.56 points per 100 possessions. Just to emphasize, that net rating is a measure of the team's overall performance in those games, not just the minutes when Haliburton and Turner were on the floor together.
For frame of reference, the Miami Heat (44-38) finished seventh in the East this season, with basically an identical net rating (-0.5) and win-percentage (0.541) to that of the Pacers with Haliburton and Turner available. There were also three teams with better net ratings that finished below Miami in the standings. Based on that information, which doesn't account for how teams adjusted to Indiana's four-guard lineups over the back-end of the season, the Pacers would still project to be outside of playoff contention -- unless they improve by some other means, whether via the draft, trades, or internal development. Ask this again in July, maybe?
Greg Pitts: Is Chris Duarte really season one Chris or season two Chris?
That's a question for season three Chris. In many ways, this sequence epitomizes his sophomore struggles. While Kevin Durant was at the line for Brooklyn, Duarte could be seen in the background form shooting. To this point in the season, he had shot 7-of-26 from deep and there were visible signs, such as this, that the slump was bothering him. Then, on the ensuing possession, it was like the flood gates opened. He buried a three from beyond 30 feet, and two nights later, he scored a career-high 30 points.
He seemed to be turning a corner, until he turned his ankle within the first five minutes of the next game. From then on, whether dealing with lingering pain or sustaining other injuries, he never managed to consistently find his footing, both figuratively and (perhaps) literally. Of course, there were also other factors that contributed to his struggles. As a rookie, Duarte was assisted by Domantas Sabonis on 43 of his 268 made field goals, which led all of his teammates. Of those assists, 20 came at the rim. Unlike Mathurin, he requires more of a helping hand, whether with screening technique or being passed open on cuts, to get all the way to finish around the basket, as he has a tendency to take off way too early.
There also were just a lot of instances where his advantage perception seemed a bit off. For example, this was definitely a low point. In addition to being sped up and not waiting for the ball screen, look at how he uses -- or rather, doesn't use -- the subsequent seal. Instead of pulling-up outside the restricted area or knifing the rest of the way to the rim, he intentionally decelerates on one leg and then completely loses track of the plot after planting his left foot.
To be fair, that's also the ankle he injured earlier in the season, which might explain some of the lack of lift, but it doesn't excuse the pacing or poor decision-making. All too often, in contrast to the improved composure he displayed during Summer League and with the Dominican Republic's National Team, there was an unsureness and hesitancy to his game, almost like an unintentionally off-beat rhythm.
He's 25. Andrew Nembhard already started in front of him last season, and Mathurin likely also will next season. Granted, Duarte was one of the team's best on-ball defenders as a rookie, assigned to the likes of Chris Paul and others to pressure the ball full-court, but because of who's on the roster and who isn't, there's reason to think that in order for him to blossom or fully rediscover aspects of who he was, he may need to try doing so on a different team, eventually.
Bob Cook: Given what we’re seeing in the playoffs, can we give Kevin Pritchard a break for his “tough out” comment? Evaluating talent and managing cap space is hard! Jimmy Butler is on his fourth team! The reigning two-time MVP was a second-round pick! The defending champs have a dynasty built on one top-10 pick — and missing on the other top picks they got because of injury-riddled seasons could haunt them later! Minnesota and Cleveland gave up huge packages with first-round picks for elite players they thought would complete their teams, and they won’t make it out of the first round! A generational No. 1 pick can’t stay on the court because of injuries (Zion is your warning, Wemby fans). The Bucks in two years have gone from potential dynasty to franchise in crisis. Of course, we all want our teams to win titles, but these playoffs have made plain there is no surefire formula. I’ll hang up and listen.
Kevin Pritchard deserves a break for his "tough out" comment because, at least from an outsider's perspective, he was merely answering for and reflecting the long-standing, short-term objectives and corporate mindset of those above him.
As to your question, that seems to be conflating goals with outcomes. There's a difference between going into a season with a supposedly complementary core of Malcolm Brogdon, Caris LeVert, T.J. Warren, Myles Turner, and Domantas Sabonis with the expectation being that the team might rise to the ceiling of being a "tough out," versus taking a swing and falling short of expectations as a "tough out." One is the starting point, whereas the other is the final result. As you say, there is no surefire formula; however, from trading LeVert for picks and an expiring contract last season to making sure everyone knows they made "big offers" for two unnamed players at the trade deadline that they've "never made in the past," it seems as though there has been a significant shift in how the team operates, including pivoting to development at the end of the season rather than viewing the play-in tournament as an imperative.
As such, when everything suggests that they're trying to break out of the pattern of being a "tough out," it appears that not even they are giving themselves a break from those comments, nor should they.
E. Hess - With all these assets, both talent and picks, I'm currently struggling to pinpoint a solution to the Pacer's PF/wing issues in one specific piece/player that is actually possible and/or doable this offseason. For me, the perfect fit would look something like peak Hedo Turkoglu playing the 4 spot in this team. Ability to create for himself in the perimeter or from the post, a strong and willing passer, actually very underrated defensively, incredibly efficient shooter particularly in late clock or late game situations, and strong enough on the glass to help some of the team's woes. Obviously this can't happen...But my point is, 1) do you agree with that general description of player need, and 2) more importantly, do you see a reasonable option, a reasonable player in the league currently (someone in the A-B tier that isn’t a superstar) that you project could singularly fix a lot of these issues for Indiana?
I'll just say I understand why the front office reportedly went after O.G. Anunoby at the trade deadline. I touched on some of this in the prior edition of the mailbag while being asked to craft a player for the Pacers out of non-All-Stars from other teams, but he truly is a position-less defender -- and that's the end of the floor that most needs to be fixed. In addition to cross-matching against opposing fives as an augmented version of what was tried with Aaron Nesmith last season, Anunoby is also capable of transforming into a weighted blanket against off-ball movers.
His pull-up shot is shaky at best, as he doesn't always have a fluid transfer of energy up from the lower half of his body. Still, he has long strides that allow him to win footraces to the rim, and the Raptors actually ran some of the same sets for him this season that Nate Bjorkgren would call for Domantas Sabonis to facilitate from a static post touch. Just look at this the long, lost relic from the past.
Additionally, balance issues limit his ability to navigate tight spaces without a screen, but there's reason to think he might be able to do more in a different context. For his career, he's shot 38.9 percent on catch-and-shoot threes. This season, he hit north of 40 percent while playing on a team that ranked 28th in conversion rate from deep. Put simply, they needed him to space the floor and mainly space the floor. That was evident in the final game of the regular season against the Pacers, when he could be seen dotting the corner despite being defended by McConnell.
Whether that can be blamed on necessity or lack of recognition, he would likely have have more agency to be seen ducking into space with the Pacers, rather than always being as singularly responsible for holding that space.
At any rate, if the Raptors try to run it back with a different coach or the asking price remains too prohibitive, then Obi Toppin, who also was mentioned in conjunction with the Pacers around the trade deadline, remains interesting. He's improved his stock stepping into provide a spark in place of Julius Randle during the playoffs, and he's never played with a big like Myles Turner who can step out to three. The Knicks also played at a faster pace with him on the floor (98.8) than off (95.9), and the electricity he provides in the open court would be transferring from a team that ranked 17th in transition frequency to one that finished fourth.
There's a chance opposing teams might try to hide their center on him, like what happened when Jalen Smith was starting at power forward, but Toppin shot 34 percent on above the break threes this season and he made the Pacers pay for trying that very strategy with Isaiah Jackson.
He's also just a very active player, who knows where to move, whether screening or cutting, when the ball moves. According to SNY New York's Ian Begley, the Knicks were seeking "significant draft compensation" from the teams that placed calls for Toppin around the trade deadline. And that was before he proved himself to be a viable playoff contributor during New York's first-round series against the Cavs. As such, if the Pacers thought the asking price was too much in February, it will likely be even higher now, assuming he is even available. Toppin wouldn't solve as many problems as Anunoby, but he also doesn't seem likely to cause any while also potentially enhancing what they already do. Those two should be near the top of what, as you say, doesn't appear to be a very "actually possible" or "doable" list.
Craig Lindemann: In the spirit of Nembhard channeling Tyrese, what are three micro-skills that you wish one Pacer would learn from another this offseason?
Let's soup up Aaron Nesmith, shall we? During his end-of-season presser, Kevin Pritchard seemed to be on the fence about whether Nesmith is a starting-caliber player, which is understandable. He plays really freaking hard, but he's an average shooter, and he largely needs to be fed. In fact, no one in the regular rotation was assisted on a higher percentage of their made field goals than him.
One thing that holds him back is his driving and finishing moves, particularly with his left hand. Andrew Nembhard, by comparison, is quirky in that he makes his weak-hand a strength, with the action at times being intentionally designed for him to attack in that direction. Neither of them is exactly bursting at the seams with vertical pop, and Nembhard doesn't consistently pressure the rim, but where he differentiates himself is with his ability to bump his defender off his driving angle, either reaching out to finish with his left or playing off two feet and swiveling to hit contact. Nesmith, in that regard, tends to drive wide and tries to use his right hand on the left side.
In transition, meanwhile, he could stand to borrow from Mathurin's single-leg strength and deceleration techniques, dragging his back toe to slow down and maintain balance. Relatively speaking, Nesmith rarely alternates his strides lengths and then stays mostly grounded when leaping off one foot. Spot the difference on what becomes a goal-tend for Mathurin, versus lack of control from Nesmith.
Lastly, Nesmith's handle isn't near as saucy as that belonging to one Timothy John McConnell, but he could mitigate that a bit by taking a page from how the veteran guard curl fills to the middle of the floor. Whereas T.J. is literally ahead of the curve and immediately gets downhill, punishing his defender for being too low and wide, Nesmith waits just a beat and then struggles to shake *checks notes* Kelly Olynyk.
In essence, rather than catching-and-going, Nesmith would benefit from going-and-catching. Overall, none of this is asking him to do more than he's already doing in terms of his role. He would simply be more effective at what he already does, scoring more points without taking up more possessions.
This answer very easily could've been about transferring most of Nembhard's traits on defense -- from how quickly he flips his hips when icing ball-screens to actually running the seam after late-switching -- to Mathurin. However, as imperative as it is for Mathurin to develop into more of a two-way threat, solidifying Nesmith's value as a low-usage starter, whether with the Pacers or another team (given his lack of positional size at the four-spot), would arguably provide an additional pathway to continue building around him and Haliburton with more bites at the apple to fully flesh out who should be part of the core and to what degree their core exists.
Tom Glasel: This isn’t actually a question but more of a request. I would love to hear about your experience at the fan appreciation night meeting Carlisle and Haliburton.
Alright, as was promised in the prior edition of the mailbag, I'm going to provide as much clarity as I can with regard to the backstory on how those photos came into being while I was at Gainbridge for the final home game of the regular season.
So, here's what I can say. I was around various members of the team and organization for most of the day, and I did a lot of observing. I sat in on the pregame coaches meeting, and I also went into the locker room at half-time as well as after the game. Beforehand, while I was getting shown around the practice facility, Tyrese and I just happened to run into each other, just like the caption says. He was very gracious, as you would expect. We interacted briefly and someone else who was there snapped our picture while we were talking and gave me permission to share the photo, which I did.
The photo with Carlisle took place prior to the game. At the time, we were not actually talking about plays, but I can't tell you what we were talking about. In fact, that applies to most of my experience. Everything discussed was off the record.
That said, in case you now feel deceived by my witty caption or found all of this to be unnecessarily vague, I will leave you with this: The entirety of that day reminded me of all the times I sat in gyms while I was growing up, just trying to learn as much as I could. This, though, was on a much grander scale with a much higher grade of collective basketball knowledge (sorry, dad!). And, oh yeah, a game also happened! Overall, it's something I will remember for a long, long time, and it's something that makes me even more grateful for those of you who have read and shared my work over the years. Thank you, quite literally, for making me feel and be seen.
(Additionally, thanks for sending in questions. We'll do this again next month)
Comments
Craig Lindemann
Congrats on your 1-year Anniversary Caitlin! Listening to James’ praise for Nesmith inspired me to come back to the Mailbag where you answered a question about suping him up. I gotta say, to my eye he’s doing the three things you mentioned much better this year! You nailed it!
