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Mailbag: Draft strategy, roaming bigs, & jersey numbers
🕑 Added 2023-05-27 13:58:14 +0000 UTCAnswering questions about all things Pacers
By: Caitlin Cooper I @C2_Cooper
Jordan Emmert: I'd be interested in what you think a fair contract for Buddy Hield looks like if we opt to use our cap space to renegotiate and extend him, ala Turner this year?
The question regarding a possible extension for Buddy Hield isn't how much he should get paid by the Pacers, but rather if he should get paid by the Pacers. There's no denying the wavelength that exists between him and Haliburton. In addition to being the No. 1 assist combination in the NBA for a large potion of the season, the Pacers posted a positive net rating when they were on the floor together (+0.72), compared to getting outscored both when Haliburton played without Hield (-7.99), as well as when Hield played without Haliburton (-6.35). In jumping out of his skin for quicker inbound passes while peering over his shoulder for opportunities to advance the ball, Haliburton is the engine that powers Indiana's identity of pushing the pace off both makes and misses, but Hield is most definitely an extension of it. He led the league in early threes taken with between 22 and 18 seconds on the shot-clock, and Indiana's transition frequency jumped by 1.4 percent when he was on the court -- marking the biggest swing of any rotation player who logged at least 1,000 minutes played, according to Cleaning the Glass.
He makes a difference. Not only with the way he sprints to the line, but also with how he respaces the floor in the half-court and consistently ghosts the switch for Haliburton with his gravity. He's also a savvy stack screener, recognizing changes in coverage to sandwich his man and necessitate the need for help on the back-side.
With Bennedict Mathurin and Chris Duarte both connecting on less than 35 percent of their catch-and-shoot threes, no one on the roster can replicate everything Hield does as a shooter, including when he isn't shooting.
That said, Mathurin joined the starting lineup in place of Hield over the last 11 games of the season, and it doesn't exactly seem prudent to make room for Hield with that group in place of Andrew Nembhard. On the season, the Pacers outscored opponents by 5.44 points per 100 possessions during the 503 minutes that Haliburton, Mathurin, and Hield were on the court together, but that number was propped up by an other-worldly offensive rating (123.9) that covered for some, let's say, squishy defense. There's room for growth, particularly if Haliburton adds strength during the offseason, but he would still arguably be miscast taking on top assignments and defending at the point of attack -- that's a job for Nembhard or someone else yet to be determined, whether via trade, free agency, or the draft.
Hield produced as a reserve, averaging 13.9 points while shooting 44 percent from three on nearly the same volume of attempts per game (7.1) as he hoisted in games as a starter (8.6); however, as Kevin Pritchard noted during exit interviews, both sides will have to come to terms on what his role should be, particularly on a team with several young guards in need of minutes, before talking contract terms.
"So, Buddy specifically. He's under contract for another year. So we don't have to early extend. We could. I love Buddy. There's some things that he does that's not on the court. The way he keeps practice light," Pritchard said. "But I think we've got to define his role next year. And if we can get a role where he's comfortable and we're comfortable, then I'm not opposed to (an extension). Now I'm not saying we're going to do it for sure, but I'm not opposed to it."
Following a season in which he finished ninth in the NBA in three-point percentage and played in all but two games, it's also possible that Hield's trade value may never be higher than it is right now, especially if some of the games where he faded into the background during January while Haliburton was sidelined become more prevalent in the event that the two of them don't end up playing together as much. He's also entering a contract year, when players, for very obvious reasons, generally want to maximize their value with opportunity. There's no denying his contributions to the offense, whether as a movement shooter or with his occasional flashes of secondary skills, but how much the Pacers contribute to him, as far as dollars and cents, probably needs to be weighed against whether he's more valuable to them or another team.
Sam Osborne: From an aesthetic standpoint what are your favorite jersey numbers? For example I love that Tyrese rocks #0 and hate that Mathurin went with #00. Something about Nwora wearing #13 also just feels right.
I have to be honest with you, Sam, I don't generally think of digits as an aesthetic, with the exception of what some of the higher numbers bring to mind from my past. Travel back in time with me to my middle school days and you will see an eighth grade version of me very dismayed to be wearing a number somewhere in the 40s (honestly, can't remember -- or, maybe, I've developed some sort of mental block with regard to this, who can say?), not because of my distaste for the No. 40 (let's just call it that from here on out), but rather because our numbers were assigned to us based on height. So, at roughly 5-foot-6, I was one of the taller girls on the team, but I'm also very skinny. This meant my jersey was way too big, requiring me to wear a t-shirt underneath (for girl reasons), which is THE WORST. During games, there was just an absurd amount of fabric. The jersey was constantly coming untucked, my shorts had to be rolled over multiples times at the waist, and in-between plays, if the film still existed (which it doesn't), I'm sure there would be tons of clips of me trying to push up the sleeves while I was running up and down the court.
When that season came to an end, I thought my long, unending nightmare of long, unending fabric was finally going to be over. Well friends, let this be a lesson in never tell the basketball gods your plans, unless you want them to laugh at you. On the first day of practice, I was told the jerseys weren't going to be assigned by height. Instead, we would get to choose whatever jersey number we wanted. Hooray, right? Wrong! We did get to choose, but the upper classmen had first pick. I was the youngest player on the team, so guess what happened when I finally had my pick of the litter. Why, yes, I was wearing a t-shirt again. This time, underneath an even larger, more ill-fitting jersey. So, while I realize that NBA players clearly don't have these same problems and should pick whatever number they want for whatever reason they want, anytime I see a number that's higher than that dreaded No. 40 (or, whatever it was), a tiny piece of me still feels the frustration of Player Caitlin and has a latent urge to fidget with my sleeves. That's an exaggeration, but t-shirts -- and the jerseys which require them -- are decidedly not my aesthetic.
Gregg Pitts: Who would you consider 'core' at this point? Does it include Myles? Nembhard? Hali & Benn? Anyone other than Hali? Have you considered adding another team to cover? From a reporting perspective you have a unique style, from a business perspective another market would really up your readership. But don't leave us!
Prior to the start of the season, Kevin Pritchard said the following while speaking to the media about team-building, "We're developing a core. People ask me all the time, 'Do you have a core?'" Yeah maybe, maybe not, but we're getting closer and next year we'll be even closer." It would be interesting to hear how he would assess the core now in a follow-up question. During exit interviews, he made reference to possibly being ahead of schedule and getting two seasons of development in one.
Of course, a lot of that has to do with Haliburton. Just for frame of reference, the Denver Nuggets led the league in effective field-goal percentage during the regular season at 57.3 percent. When Haliburton was the on floor, Indiana's effective field-goal percentage was 57.4 percent, compared to 51.8 percent when he was off -- a nearly identical mark to the Toronto Raptors (51.7), who ranked 28th. That's a massive swing and speaks to how suddenly the good vibes came crashing to a halt when he went down with an injury in January.
In addition to him, the top six players in my opinion and in no particular order are Bennedict Mathurin, Myles Turner, Andrew Nembhard, Buddy Hield, and Aaron Nesmith. Nembhard might eventually start bumping his head on the ceiling of what he can ascend to on this roster as a primary ball-handler. Hield is entering a contract year, and Nesmith is a useful role player. If there was a chance to acquire a bona fide star who complements Haliburton, no one should be completely off the table, although Mathurin would be very close. That doesn't mean the Pacers should actively be shopping Turner, who just had the best season of his career, let alone two promising young players, but Haliburton has shown enough to think that, at some point, they should be willing to think big and perhaps take a big swing.
As for my little start-up venture, a big part of the reason why readers like my work, even if they don't necessarily realize it, is because I only cover the Pacers. The level of film study and research that goes into the detail that I aim to provide doesn't come from skipping around the league.
For those who are interested in broader coverage, I did a separate mailbag last month covering questions on the playoffs, which included several other teams. I also recently recorded a podcast with Samson Folk and Evin Gualberto for Raptors Republic, in which the three of us discussed how to evaluate coaching and what qualities the Raptors should perhaps be searching for during their hiring process. Other than that, my focus will mainly be here, writing about what I know because I put in the time to know it to the best of my ability. In my opinion, I don't just write about the Pacers. I write about basketball, and I do it in a hyper-specific, incisive way that wouldn't be possible if my bandwidth was stretched any further.
If that doesn't prove to be good for business (which, maybe, it won't?), then I would probably choose to get out of the business of writing, because I don't want to short-change readers by changing who I am as a writer. It's possible I would have more readership in a bigger market, but my work also may never have gotten noticed in the small way that it has in a bigger market. For that, I'm very grateful to everyone who has promoted me and my style of coverage over the years. I grew up watching the Pacers, and I've lived my entire life in Indiana. I don't have plans to leave unless I wear out my welcome. I'm not for everyone, but for everyone who is reading this, I'm going to try to make the business of writing about the basketball aspects of basketball through the lens of the Pacers work for as long as I stay in writing.
Thomas: How important to the Pacers do you think it is to make sure the roster is constructed in a way that ensures Myles is usually defended by 5s? It pretty clearly maximizes him but is it necessarily best for the team? I ask because watching these playoffs it seems like it's a hard thing to guarantee with teams trying all sorts of alignments to keep bigs near the hoop. AD against the Warriors is what I'm thinking of because it seems like unless you have 4 +3PT shooters teams will stash their big there regardless of "position."
So, speaking of covering other teams, this topic was actually one that I covered in a separate podcast with Samson Folk and Trevon Heath at Raptors Republic, in which we discussed the rise of roaming bigs. In part, I wanted to bring that up as a talking point because I had noticed the Raptors matching O.G. Anunoby up against the likes of Anthony Davis and Nikola Jokic and wanted to have a conversation about their motivations for doing so after they acquired Jakob Poeltl. Meanwhile, Turner's very own role was also adjusted last season, as he was more often assigned to low usage wings as a means to keep him around the basket to provide protection for Indiana's lack of size and leaky on-ball defense.
This tactic was popularized over the last few seasons by Robert Williams and Jaren Jackson Jr., but it's continued to become more prevalent, with the goal being to maintain a constant presence of passive size, more so than to hide a big on a wing. As such, it's entirely possible that teams may still end up defending Turner with fours regardless of who is playing the four, but it's still something the Pacers should aim to avoid (or, at least give themselves a solid chance to punish) unless the player is a surefire bet to markedly elevate their defense and rebounding. It's not just about optimizing Turner. During the team's seven-game west coast road trip, when several opposing fives started sagging off from Jalen Smith, the Pacers scored a measly 104.4 points per 100 possessions, ranking last in the NBA over that span.
To be fair, the cross-matching wasn't the only culprit for the anemic output, seeing as how several players on the team were slumping from the three at the same time, but the quality of shots was no doubt affected by the way in which they were being forced to scheme around an extra, loose body. There's a reason why the Pacers shifted to starting Aaron Nesmith not long after they returned home from that trip.
In a sense, that's representative of both the current and historical trade-off. When Thaddeus Young was the starting four, teams like the Sixers would defend Turner with Ben Simmons, marginalizing him in the offense while also keeping Embiid near the rim. Conversely, when T.J. Warren was the starting four in the bubble, the Pacers ranked 30th in opponent offensive rebounding rate and Turner was what Miami was willing to give up. He improved this season at making opponents pay for leaving him open, whether from three or ducking in when opponents flooded strong side, but the task of finding the right frontcourt partner who can lockdown on defense without locking up the offense, both for Turner and the team at-large, isn't as simple as it may seem.
Luke: Ignoring the potential cost to acquire/sign who do you like the most for the Pacers between Obi Toppin, Grant Williams, Rui Hachimura and Jonathan Kuminga? Even if we draft a forward we will still need better rotation pieces with size who fit the timeline.
According to SNY New York's Ian Begley, the Pacers and Knicks had a loose framework for a deal involving Obi Toppin and Chris Duarte at the trade deadline. Begley also previously reported that the Knicks were seeking "significant draft compensation" from the teams that placed calls for Toppin. He looked like a viable playoff contributor during New York's first-round series against the Cavs, so if the price was prohibitive at the deadline, it's likely only more so now.
That said, as was laid out in last month's mailbag, Toppin intrigues in that he's never played with a big like Myles Turner who can step out to three. The Knicks also played at a faster pace with him on the floor (98.8) this past season than off (95.9), and the electricity he provides in the open court would be transferring from a team that ranked 17th in transition frequency to one that finished fourth.
There's a chance opposing teams might try to cross-match their center on him, like what happened when Jalen Smith was starting at power forward, but Toppin shot 34 percent on above the break threes this season and he made the Pacers pay for trying that very strategy with Isaiah Jackson.
To that point, in order to adapt to what the Knicks asked from him in a spot role, he adjusted his game to be a quicker-trigger, three-point shooter, which showed during the playoffs.
He's also just a very active player, who can catch lobs and knows where to move, whether screening or cutting, when the ball moves. Even if he doesn't necessarily address some of the team's shortcomings, he fits their identity -- and that was worth a call to the Knicks, especially with Duarte also seeming as though he might need to be on a different team in order to rediscover some of what made him appear promising as a rookie.
Jackson Barrett: Who would you pick if you were in charge of making the pick, and the choices were Hendricks or Walker?
Watch out, here comes the cop out. My intention with writing the draft profiles is to mesh what insights I glean from my cram sessions studying the players with my knowledge of the Pacers. From there, it's up to the reader to interpret and do with that information what they will. I realize that answer might be underwhelming, but I recently recorded a podcast on the Hendricks vs. Walker debate with Adam Spinella at The Box and One that you can watch on YouTube for even more detail about their respective games and what type of environments would bring out the best in each of them, if that interests you.
Hopefully, the combination of live film study along with my writing can make up for my lack of a public big board.
Moxy Doxy: As I write this, it looks like the Nuggets and Heat are destined for a finals clash. Both teams have done well getting talent in the draft and building on it with key trades and signings. What can the Pacers learn from their draft decisions?
The Pacers should probably aim to draft a two-time MVP with one of their second-round picks this year, right? On a more serious note, Denver's rise is also a reflection of the injury risks that small market teams oftentimes have to be willing to incur in order to reach contention status. The Nuggets took a gamble on Michael Porter Jr., as a high-risk, high-reward first rounder who fell to them at No. 14 on worries that he might not fully recover from the season-ending microdiscectomy surgery that caused him to miss almost the entirety of his freshman season at the University of Missouri. That patient approach and willingness to bet on what he could be as an athletic scorer capable of generating offense away from the ball with relentless cutting and tough, contested shot-making, ultimately changed their ceiling.
Indiana is in somewhat of a different spot selecting at No. 7, and they've only just recently dismantled a roster that could never stay healthy, with Malcolm Brogdon, Victor Oladipo, T.J. Warren, Myles Turner, and Domantas Sabonis only ever logging 129 minutes of action together, but there's always a risk that the 14th pick, which is near to where Chris Duarte was selected, turns out to be a below average player who never consistently cracks the rotation. In that regard, there's something to be said for being patient and playing the long game.
As for Miami, never forget Pat Riley's quote from 2018 in which he said, "To be really honest with you, I'm not a draft pick guy." By reputation, the Heat have primarily built contenders through free agency and trades, with draft picks serving as assets to complete blockbuster deals. That doesn't necessarily apply to the current squad, given that two of the team's top players, being Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro, were drafted by Miami as high first-round selections, but they still have a way with building out rosters with players who don't require picks. In trusting their development staff and culture, the Heat identify talent, whether in the G League or from overseas, who they think have a chance to be NBA role players. In that sense, with the Mad Ants moving to Noblesville, there might be something to be gleaned from no stone being left unturned as far as valuing the drive that is oftentimes required of players who go undrafted.
Lil Tisa: We are nearing three years since Rick Carlisle was hired and a full rebuilding year under his tenure. Considering his roster moves, what player traits and tendencies does he seem to value in young players? And what can we glean from these decisions in terms of how Carlisle would evaluate this draft class?
First of all, I just want to preface my answer by saying that, at least from what was said during exit interviews, it sounds as though Kevin Pritchard, Chad Buchanan, Rick Carlisle, Lloyd Pierce, and Tyrese Haliburton are all involved in some capacity when it comes to making core decisions. Now, to contradict everything I just said in my prior response. It seems like availability was a common thread between the players they drafted last season -- which, for the reasons that were already laid out with regard to what *maybe* could've been with the Victor Oladipo-era teams had health allowed, makes sense. Mathurin played in every game as a sophomore at Arizona. Nembhard played in every game as a senior at Gonzaga, and Kendall Brown played in every game as a freshman at Baylor. As it turns out, Brown ended up requiring season-ending surgery to repair a stress fracture in his right tibia, so there's no foolproof way to predict or prevent every injury, but there at least appeared to be more of an emphasis on considering durability as a factor among many.
Another overarching theme has been upgrading the team's athleticism in order to mold the roster around Haliburton's penchant for playing in the open floor. All of these players don't see regular minutes, but Isaiah Jackson completed more alley-oop dunk shots in 541 minutes played (19) than the prior two Pacers TEAMS combined (18). He's also incredibly mobile in transition, as are both Mathurin and Kendall Brown. Meanwhile, Mathurin's athleticism also manifests with his single-leg strength and body control around the basket. Everything the Pacers are doing is with Haliburton in mind, so they will likely continue to search for pieces who can and will run with him. If not, then it will probably be because the player is cerebral and can execute out of flow-game or overwhelmingly meets the team's obvious and more pressing needs on defense, despite other potential limitations.
As Carlisle stated during exit interviews, "We're going to look at every conceivable possibility via the draft, free agency, and trades to get our rebounding and our defense better."
Lastly, if everything else is equal, then look for them to err on the side of shooting as a powerful deodorant.
Dan Favale: Are there any specific functional strengths (or weaknesses) you gravitate toward or look more closely at than others when evaluating whether/how a draft prospect, free agent target, new player, etc. will be a good fit for the Pacers roster—or, really, any team’s roster?
This can also be a reflection of coaching, but something I always take note of is how well players can function beyond the initial play-call. As in, can they operate out-of-pocket or go into a flowing advantage when certain elements don't go as planned?
That's why this was such a positive flash from Bennedict Mathurin in the final game of the regular season. The Knicks neutralized what was designed for Mathurin to intentionally reject and fake the "wide" screen before whipping around to become the stack-screener, but when he catches the ball after releasing from the pick, look at what he does next. Rather than stalling out or forcing a shot, he motions for Isaiah Jackson to come get the ball, and then screens away for Andrew Nembhard to zoom into a hand-off, which allows the rookie point guard to slalom downhill and get to the rim with his favorite off-beat, sleight-of-hand trick.
Nembhard will generally find a way to keep playing, but this was an inflection point for Mathurin in that he isn't always intuitive with how to transition between actions. For the most part, NBA teams want to play more read and react because it's harder to scout when gearing up for the playoffs. As such, there's value in either finding players who can go off script while still playing within a team context or having confidence in the coaching staff to bring out that type of fluidity over time. Either way, it's an underrated aspect of evaluation with regard to how anyone fits in today's NBA with any team.
(Special thanks to everyone who sent in questions. We'll do this again next month.)
Comments
Ross Fenimore
Just finished the Box and One video - thanks for committing such time to details (the usual). I left feeling pretty optimistic about both for different reasons. But it really allows me to re-visit this whole conversation of keeping Myles around the bucket. I really like Hendricks as a shot blocker with instincts, as well as his role in deterring the 4/5 conundrum. I feel that as an accessory shot blocker Myles won’t get pulled away from the rim as much and thus potentially better position for D rebounding. I prefer Walker’s point of attack style of D without letting things get to the rim, however. Because I think in that tune Myles as a truly good rebounder (Smith too) would have more space to grab boards or at least seal harder in space for our guards to grab boards and run. Classic case of questions leading to more questions fit-wise. Thanks for the great content!
Luke
Toppin would be so fun, watching him perform well in the playoffs was tough because I felt like it was less likely we could get him every game
Caitlin Cooper
I wouldn't say it comes before. It's just a trait that unifies more of the recent picks, whereas shooting doesn't really apply to IJax or Brown.
naptowndrew
“…a roster that could never stay healthy, with Malcolm Brogdon, Victor Oladipo, T.J. Warren, Myles Turner, and Domantas Sabonis only ever logging 129 minutes of action together” incredible stat and didn’t really think about this until now. I tend to think of VO and TJ because their injuries were so severe but they all had challenges staying on the floor during their time here together. No wonder that core didn’t achieve its potential. Tough breaks with injuries all around.
Thomas
If they were to go another way with Whitmore or a Thompson that would in theory allow a more 5 out style of play even if none of them are currently very +3pt shooters right now by being a more dynamic scoring threat. But none of them project to fix the defense
Thomas
Thanks for answering my question! I'm really struggling with the roaming bigs and what to want out of this draft for the Pacers. Hendricks shooting promises to make him a hard place to hide 5s if it translates but I'm not sure the volume of efficiency will be high enough for teams to care. Walker on the other hand with his questionable shooting and finishing seems like an obvious place to put bigs to allow roaming but is his short roll passing good enough that it would punish it? I want to believe that but I'm not sure it's true.
Frank M Cook
If speed comes ahead of shooting in player evaluations, I have undervalued the Thompson twins as Pacer fits.
