Basketball, She Wrote
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Mailbag, on the present and future of the Pacers
🕑 Added 2023-03-26 13:39:47 +0000 UTCIt's the March edition of the patron-only mailbag
By Caitlin Cooper I @C2_Cooper
Jordan Emmert: Would be curious to get your thoughts on Nembhard's inconsistent attacking mindset, some quarters he seems to be going for it and others he is completely passive. I'd love to see him find a role with the team where he can be more aggressive as a scorer. Also interested in what you think of Nesmith's ceiling and if he can be a long term starter on the wing for the Pacers.
The loss to the Hornets last Monday should be somewhat illuminating as to your first question. After only taking two shots during the first half, Nembhard led the team in attempts over the final five minutes, going 0-of-4 from the field. So, what changed? Early on, Charlotte was trapping ball screens, which meant Indiana's rookie point guard was tasked more with being a facilitator. This, with Gordon Hayward getting shifted toward Buddy Hield, is chef's kiss.
Well, by the fourth quarter, the Hornets started relaxing that coverage, playing Nick Richards in drop while staying home on shooters. With the pick-and-roll being defended 2-on-2, Nembhard was more "aggressive" looking for his own offense, largely, because he was the player who was open.
Of course, given that he's only attempted 19 percent of his shots at the rim this season, there is certainly an argument to be made that he can be a bit too mid-range dependent, at times, truncating his drives to play for fadeaways even when he has an open driving lane. That said, he braved an in-and-out dribble into a bump against Richards during this stretch and got blocked on the other side of the rim. Meanwhile, Kelly Oubre Jr. pounced his sleight of hand trick, where he fakes a pass to the right corner to freeze the defense, which also limited his effectiveness.
Another factor to consider is who's guarding him. When he scored 14 points in the first quarter against Toronto, the Raptors started out defending him with Will Barton. Nembhard deserves credit for pressing all the right buttons, but this wasn't exactly high-level coverage. The sleight of hand trick is back, baby!
Also, with all due respect to the control he displayed here in stopping and popping for his quirky floater with his exaggerated release, a stack action with T.J. McConnell as the stack screener should never, EVER, result in an open shot for the ball-handler.
Of course, none of that takes anything away from the fact that he was absolutely beaming with confidence when he stepped back against Pascal Siakam to put the Pacers ahead, 114-107, with under a minute to play. On that front, it's somewhat interesting to consider his moxie when he was running the show by comparison to what can occasionally be some glitches, as far as when to look for his own shot, when he's playing away from the ball.
Overall, aside from his tendency to stop short of the rim, some of what gets perceived as quarter-to-quarter variance in his offensive execution can probably be attributed to external factors, be it shifts in coverage, match-up, or role -- the latter of which should be interesting to monitor as he continues to develop.
As for Nesmith, he's been assisted on 81 percent of his field goals this season. For frame of reference, that percentage is actually a smidge higher than what has been the case for Jalen Smith (79%), who previously started at the four and can be iffy when putting the ball on the deck and/or attempting a one-dribble pull-up inside the arc. When Nesmith is knocking down shots and attacking closeouts against bigger wings, he's a viable starter, but he'll need to demonstrate more proof of product with regard to self-creation and doing more than just finishing plays to move the needle with regard to his ceiling. Either way, he plays really hard and deserves some sort of role player award for what he did against Philadelphia, scoring 25 points to go with six rebounds while also taking on the task of fronting Joel Embiid mid-way through the third quarter. If nothing else, he battles.
Bob Cook: Aaron Nesmith has games where he scores 20, and then comes back and scores, say, 2. What drives this offensive inconsistency? Also, what player has improved the most over the course of the season, and why?
It's going to sound rudimentary, but the simplest answer, being shot variance, is probably the correct answer. Nesmith has scored at least 20 points in six games this season. Among those games, he's made four or more threes in five. Other than the win over the Knicks, when he drilled a pair of step-backs and had a play run for him under the basket, his three-point attempts generally come as a floor spacer, whether dotting the corners, shaking up from the corner, or running the floor in transition.
When he only scored four points against the Hornets, Charlotte was trapping ball screens early on (which generally led to Turner being open as the roll-man) and then switched to drop and stayed home on shooters in the second half. He isn't particularly explosive attacking from a standstill, so he ended up going 0-of-2 from deep while committing three turnovers, with one coming from an offensive foul and the other two resulting from his handle. The Sixers, by comparison, mixed in some zone and were tagging from the single-side of the floor, where he was stationed, allowing him to finish with 25 points, including four threes. For the season, fewer than 40 percent of his threes of have been contested, but he's only shot 33 percent on threes that are off the catch. Without being a shot doctor, those numbers and changes in coverage should explain some of his peaks and valleys as a scorer.
With regard to who has improved most over the course of the season, the answer is probably either Tyrese Haliburton or Myles Turner. Haliburton only led the team in field-goal attempts three times last season after being traded to the Pacers and there were several games where he deferred in late-game situations, while demonstrating trouble against switches. Now, whether hunting the switch pocket with his deeper range, going to to his fake step-back move, or growing in his ability to side-step to his left as well as his right, he's found a number of hacks, while also drilling a pair of game-winners. Remember, when Lance Stephenson went 0-of-5 during OT in the loss to OKC? Or, when the offense tiled to Malcolm Brogdon down the stretch against Detroit with Isaiah Stewart switching out to the ball? That all seems like an extremely distant memory.
Turner, meanwhile, has weaponized his touch in the post to the point where it's frustrating when he doesn't touch the ball as opposed to being frustrating when he does. He's also put together some very compelling drives, as was written here a few weeks ago, and started to come into his own, as far as making quicker decisions and recognizing what decisions to make -- all while moving toward the basket. There's a case for both of them as MIP, with Haliburton also revealing his value as MVP with the way in which he has contributed to unlocking Turner.
Elia Meeks-Johnson: What are your biggest surprises from this Pacers season? Nembhard and Nesmith both had bigger roles than I anticipated (deservedly so) while "starting power forward" Jalen Smith and IJax didn't get as much run as I expected. Maybe the biggest surprise to me has been how darn good Myles Turner has been at "solo 5" - and that he was extended instead of traded.
Very much agreed, Elia. A year ago, there was a possession against the Boston Celtics wherein Josh Richardson was checking Myles Turner despite the fact that Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Robert Williams, who admittedly had made the shift to weak-side roamer, were all on the floor. By the way, this didn't happen following a switch. Richardson was his primary defender, while playing at the five in a lineup with Duane Washington Jr., Torrey Craig, Justin Holiday, and Oshae Brissett.
Now, think about what he did on Friday, rolling to the rim against Williams, making tough shots over Al Horford, weaponizing his touch against switches, and turning over his shoulder to score from in between a double-team.
He's been a revelation in a lot of ways, not the least of which being the fact that he's still on the roster, with both sides finding a way to keep the past in the past after signing Deandre Ayton to a max offer sheet last summer.
Nikolay Mollov: Could you share your thoughts on how IJax has played this year, if you think he will have a role next year and what on Earth is Carlisle doing with this 2 games on/ 2 games off thing. It's crazy! I love watching IJax slam the ball down the hoop or erase layups on the defensive end and I am bummed he's been shoved aside this year.
Well, at least Smith and Jackson have played together in spots the last few games. The rotating carousel rotation, while certainly less than ideal, seems like the only viable solution to a problem that was created last summer, when Smith was christened as the "starting power forward" in spite of the fact that he doesn't do many starting power forward-like things. As a starter, he didn't shoot the ball well enough to prevent opposing teams from defending him with fives and sagging off, so the Pacers have a logjam at a position where it seems as though they should've been able to foresee that they would be overstocked.
With regard to Jackson, he tantalizes with his athleticism and occasional flashes of passing chops; however, given that he doesn't currently have sole possession of a rotation spot, it's a little surprising to see any possessions like this, let alone during the first quarter -- long before this game turned into a blowout in favor of Detroit.
It's one thing to still be mastering footwork when switching out or the nuances of drop coverage, it's quite another to just get out of the way without providing the slightest bit of resistance after allowing Killian Hayes to drive the full-length of the floor with his strong hand. That shouldn't be a thing.
Michael Tinkle: Do you see Nembhard continuing to start as an off ball guard or pushing McConnell to 3rd string and taking over the 2nd unit next year? Seems obvious that he’s a far better player as a ball dominant point guard vs. off ball shooting guard.
It remains to be seen if it will happen next season, but why not both? As was laid out in the article covering some of the tricks of the trade that Nembhard seems to have adapted from Haliburton, he's averaged 16.4 potential assists over the 13 games in which he's started at nominal point guard. For point of reference, Haliburton leads the league in that category with 19.9 per game. Nikola Jokic, who ranks fifth, also averages 16.4 per game. Don't get it twisted. Nembhard isn't Jokic, obviously, and that number is partially inflated by the fact that he played big minutes in some of those games as the only available ball-handler, with the exception of James Johnson and Trevelin Queen on two-way contract. Still, the fewest number of potential assists he recorded in any of those contests was far from few (11.0). At his best, he's steady at the controls, purposing himself to get downhill, while sneaking the ball around the defense in a variety of ways - like was the case against Toronto.
To reiterate the point from the end of that article, the question moving forward is whether his intermittent scoring limitations can "warrant siphoning pick-and-roll possessions from Haliburton's artistry -- not only for the sake of lessening the star guard's burden, but also for the purpose of fully exploring the outskirts of his own."
Away from the ball, meanwhile, Nembhard's accuracy as a shooter has waxed and waned over the course of the season, and he can occasionally be glitchy in determining when to assert himself (see: prior response), but he demonstrated some intuitiveness sliding along the three-point line and finding passing windows in the recent win over Milwaukee. Plus, there's value to keeping him in the starting lineup, where he can shield Haliburton from needing to take on top defensive assignments.
All of which is to say that, in order to fully flesh out what Nembhard can be, there's a case to be made for keeping him in the starting lineup, even if only for defensive purposes, while also making a split decision and staggering the rookie guard to run offense for the bench -- eventually, in place of McConnell.
Paul Glennon March: Nembhard had an amazing game (against the Raptors). I’m curious what you think his future ideal role would be for the Pacers? While I think he has positives both on and off the ball, I’m hopeful he can still get better.
Again, some of what happened against the Raptors needs to be evaluated through the lens of the defense (it wasn't great!); however, from what he's shown thus far, it seems as though he won't be fully maximized unless the long-term vision is for him to consistently run offense in some capacity, whether for the bench or with Haliburton, perhaps, starting some possessions away from the ball.
Kyle Taylor: I'd love deep dives on Nembhard and Mathurin. It feels like Nembhard hit the rookie wall hard and is (maybe??) coming out of it. Mathurin started off the season on fire but my feeling is that he's mostly taken steps backward since then, with some slight defensive and passing improvements. How do you view the overall trajectories of their seasons? For each, what are you most concerned about and what are you most optimistic about?
With only seven games left to play, let's focus on the improvement areas. Lots of words have already been written about Nembhard, so I'll refer you to those answers while adding further context that he's started to become the player who teams will assign their bigs to if they want to deploy a weak-side roamer or shield them from defending in space. Robert Williams logged a few possessions against him in hybrid lineups on Friday, and Kristaps Porzingis started the game opposite from him the last time the Pacers played the Wizards.
This goes back to the prior conversation regarding the juxtaposition of being so bold as to bomb in a three from 30-feet over Pascal Siakam, while at the same time being unsure of himself while playing away from the ball during OT in the previously shared clip against the Celtics. Moving forward, he needs to make himself appear more dangerous in these situations, even if he doesn't end up shooting.
As for Mathurin, the main focus needs to be his screen navigation. All too often, when he gets snagged, he stays snagged.
Generally speaking, the decision as whether to late-switch, meaning the on-ball defender chases over and then veers into the path of the screener, should either be automatically triggered by a certain marker, such as when the ball gets below the free throw line, or left up to the discretion of the big. Otherwise, with Mathurin calling the shots, this happens.
Still, as counter-intuitive as it may sound, all of the reasons why he shouldn't be assigned to defend at the point of attack probably reinforce why he should be assigned to defend at the point of attack more often for the remainder of the season. As was the case against Fred VanVleet on Wednesday, when Oshae Brissett started in place of Nesmith and distorted the match-ups, Mathurin getting those types of reps is more important than getting the win. Although, as that game goes to show, those two things don't necessarily have to be mutually exclusive.
Tremayne Wooten: What are your feelings towards finishing up this season? Is it better to keep winning for postseason experience? Or should we let Rick continue to tinker with lineups and focus on development at the expense of winning (aka “tanking”)?
Again, by virtue of the results against Milwaukee and Toronto, it would seem as though those two things don't necessarily have to be mutually exclusive. But, the priority should be the latter. The remaining seven games need to be a fact-finding mission with the big picture in mind, which also seems to be the view of the organization at-large, given that Bennedict Mathurin replaced Buddy Hield in the starting lineup against Boston. Give him screen help with the ball in his hands, continue challenging him to defend at the point of attack, and get a jump-start on allowing him to jell in increased minutes with Haliburton. Those two are the future, and the future shouldn't be short-changed in pursuit of short-term goals.
Thomas Welch: What are you watching for during these last days of the season?
In addition to what was just mentioned, as well as some of what will be mentioned later in response to other questions about Isaiah Jackson, Jalen Smith, and the defense at-large, this should be informative as to an item of interest.
Following a timeout, in which T.J. McConnell seemed less than pleased that a timeout was called at the expense of pushing the ball ahead in transition, Carlisle made some substitutions and then deliberately ran this, with Mathurin isolated against Kelly Oubre Jr. on the wing.
While perhaps happening as a product of the offense, this hasn't happened much, if at all, as the initial purpose of the offense. Seeing if he can earn more of these types of possessions, of which he's shot 13-of-39 (33%) on isolation twos this season, will be worth monitoring with regard to the development of his handle.
Jonathan Macri: Using your crystal ball, what kind of Pacers rotation would you expect to see on the floor in the last week of the season; i.e., when they play the Knicks twice in the final 3 games?
Hopefully, whatever lineup will allow us to collaborate on an interesting pregame pod. That's why you're asking this question, right? Kidding, of course. To answer, in part, with my prior answer, the Pacers don't seem to view the play-in tournament as an imperative. Mathurin has replaced Hield in the starting lineup. Daniel Theis has been shelved. Plus, they are three games back of the Chicago Bulls for tenth-place with the fourth-toughest remaining schedule in the Eastern Conference. Hield wants to play every game and has played in every game, but expect them to continue prioritizing development and what can be learned from lineup fluidity.
Emmanue Sterlin Jr.: Barring any trades or signings do you think Mathurin has done enough this year to earn a starting spot on the roster next season if he improves any weaknesses just a little?
As appears to already be the case now, the short answer to that question is that he should continue earning the starting spot so that he can improve on his weaknesses, as well as what vulnerabilities are likely to be inherent on defense when he shares the floor with Haliburton against starting lineups.
At present, he doesn't have the same chemistry with Haliburton as Hield does, as far as ghosting the switch and cutting in front of the ball to create wider gaps for the former to drive into, nor is he the same caliber of shooter as the latter, particularly off-the-catch. But, the only way to build that chemistry is for them to play together, while also growing together.
Mavs/Magic Draft: Do you think the Pacers envision Jordan Nwora as a guy worth keeping for next year (as opposed to trading since his contract is 2 years)? I feel like there’s flashes of enough positives to stick around, but he then will go into a mode where he loses his filter as a shooter?
Fresh off from setting the regular season single-quarter scoring record with 25 points, he's probably getting a lifetime contract, right? In all seriousness, he can perhaps take some questionable shots on occasion, but he's been given more agency within the offense to round out other areas of his game. He's a willing and intuitive cutter, he crashes the glass hard from the wings, and he's even started getting some reps as the ball-handler out of 4-5 pick-and-roll, which gives them a different look than what anyone else at his position on the roster can offer.
Here's the play they've been running for him, called "chin 4." Triggered by a backscreen for T.J. McConnell to cut from the slot and clear out to the corner, Jalen Smith then sets a ball screen for Nwora, creating a single-side tag on the back-side. With the opposing four put in the unnatural position of chasing over a screen, the tendency is for two players to converge on the ball, allowing him to tease out some of his passing skills.
When he caught fire against the Hawks, he also rejected the action to his left and drilled a step-back three to create separation with Onyeka Okongwu in drop.
The Pacers aren't generating the range of both of those outcomes with Jalen Smith, Oshae Brissett, or Aaron Nesmith at the four -- hence why they weren't calling this play for anyone at that position until after Nwora's arrival. Since being traded, he's used 22 possessions as the pick-and-roll ball-handler, compared to 26 with the Bucks. He's worth keeping around.
Moxy Doxy: How well do our young guys, aside from Tyrese, take to coaching adjustments? The result isn't always great as evidenced by our record, but are you seeing the kind of flexible adaptability that Rick can trust for seasons to come from anyone?
Some better than others, it seems (*stares through rain-streaked window while thinking about Chris Duarte's cursed sophomore season*). Several players have experienced changes in role throughout the season, be it Aaron Nesmith becoming a makeshift power forward, Andrew Nembhard making the adjustment to start as a wing, or Oshae Brissett still finding ways to play with ferocity despite being in and out of the rotation. With Jordan Nwora coming over at the trade deadline, it remains to be seen if Brissett will be around for "seasons to come," but there's reason to believe in the portability of Nesmith and Nembhard, who have both defended up and down the lineup without requiring tons of usage.
Jay Glenn: 1) You have to keep one and only one: Jalen Smith or Isaiah Jackson? Who fits better with where it appears Rick Carlisle wants to take the team? 2) If you could bring back any one player the Pacers have released the past two seasons for a (non-existent) 16th roster spot, who would it be?
Oh wow, this is tough. The team's defensive rating, in terms of points allowed per 100 possessions, isn't favorable when either Jackson (116.7) or Smith (119.7) plays at solo-five. For context, both of those marks are the equivalent of bottom-five defenses. Jackson is better in terms of event creation. According to Cleaning the Glass, his block percentage (4.8) currently ranks in the 98th percentile of bigs, but he still has a ways to go in terms of being a defensive anchor. Most of what he does on that end of the floor is loud -- for reasons both good and bad. There have been games, such as the prior game he started against the Hawks, where he blocks every shot in sight, mainly in rotation to the rim, while also giving up a bunch of lobs to the point of being shifted onto Dejounte Murray after halftime.
Additionally, it remains a mystery as to why the Pacers were shading Killian Hayes toward his strong hand, but the fact that Nembhard is looking over his shoulder in search of whether and from where the screen is coming, likely points to poor or absent defensive communication, resulting in a straight-line drive.
Likewise, look at how T.J. McConnell, as he is prone to do, watches for Joe Mazzulla's play-call and then mimics it for his teammates as he runs down the floor. With one fist pounding on top of the other, that's the sign for "stack" action; and yet, with Nembhard and McConnell switching the guards, Jackson isn't in position to protect against the pop or the drive -- had there been a drive.
Needless to say, this is going to take time. He's better with coverages that allow him to be proactive, pouncing out above the level and leaning into his ground coverage.
Smith, by comparison, played some critical minutes in the win over Chicago prior to the break, scramming out mismatches and earning key rebounds. Offensively, Smith hasn't made many threes, but he at least takes them -- albeit, somewhat hesitantly at times. He also becomes more interesting if he's willing to do more of this, where instead of facing up and trying to beat his defender off the dribble with a not-so quick rip, he can become a bully driver, opting for a more methodical approach.
As such, if contracts weren't part of the equation, Smith would probably be the answer, assuming the Pacers are aiming to be competitive next season (after all, he was who had gained favor as the back-up five before the carousel rotation was enacted). However, since Jackson is under team control for longer and there doesn't seem to be an overwhelming frontrunner, I'll give the nod to the Kentucky product (without wearing a Pacers-themed University of Kentucky hat, of course). Long live lob dunks, it seems, and may Jackson figure out the rest in the long run.
As for the hypothetical 16th roster spot, Terry Taylor as a 6-foot-5 roll-man and putback machine still endears, but he didn't have the same impact spacing out to the corners as he does when allowed to manufacture angles around the basket. There also isn't a clear spot for him in the rotation, which is why he was released. With that in mind, I'll appeal to the masses and say Lance Stephenson, especially since George Hill is back in town. The GQ photo needs to be reenacted, right?
Nicholas Tonetti: Do you think Isaiah Jackson is setting up to be another Jonathan Bender? Similar build, huge potential that flashes in short spurts, frequent injury (less for IJ, but still), buried at a glut in the front court, jumps out of the barn, attempts audacious athletic feats?
For much of this season, it has seemed more like he's setting up to be another Goga Bitadze, as being someone the Pacers drafted only for him not to play in seven of 11 games while being buried in the rotation behind Turner and Smith at a position that makes it very tricky for multiple players of that position to play at the same time. That said, as you've pointed out, he definitely wows, including in low-key moments that don't seem as though they should wow, more than what was the case for Goga.
Just look at this play against the Pistons. In addition to outrunning everyone on the floor in spite of not starting in the lead, he leaps to snatch the offensive rebound and then has the recognition to make a quick touch pass over his left shoulder on his way down without wasting any extra motion.
Also, is this a layup or a Michelangelo painting?
Again, may he figure out the rest, and may the cartilage in his knees never meet the same fate as what unfortunately turned out to be the case for Jonathan Bender. In fact, let's never speak of his again, ok?
Gregg Pitts: Are IJax and Smith really effective playing together? I know it's been a recent thing. Also the "big" lineup the other night with 4 bigs and TJ. Was that effective or did it just confuse the other team for a while? What are the upsides and downsides of both lineups?
Over the last two seasons, the Pacers have outscored opponents by 8.35 points per 100 possessions in less than 300 minutes of action with Jackson and Smith on the floor together. It's a small sample size and conventional wisdom suggests that many of the same pitfalls which befell the Smith-Turner pairing might also come for Smith and Jackson, but there were two things of note that happened against the Hornets.
First, look at how the Pacers contorted what appears like empty-side "stack" action to better accommodate having two bigs on the floor.
Rather than operating traditionally as the stack-screener, Aaron Nesmith pulls out from the roller and instead sets a cross-screen for Jalen Smith, effectively concealing what becomes a post-up. Meanwhile, Jackson rolls into an exit screen for Nesmith to dot the corner before ultimately sliding to the block and crashing the glass.
Featuring continuous spacing while also punishing the Hornets for playing small with P.J. Washington at the five, that's a clever wrinkle. Whether they would be able to find enough clever wrinkles to massage what would likely be cramped elbow room over a larger sample size remains to be seen, but they finished +12 in 18 minutes in this game, largely, because they were large. During those minutes, some of which also included Jordan Nwora and Oshae Brissett, the Pacers grabbed over 60 percent of their own misses. That's astronomical and surely not sustainable.
Defensively, after attempting to play 3-2 zone against Milwaukee in what seemed like a match-up specific curveball to prevent Giannis Antetokounmpo from running inverted pick-and-roll, the Pacers tried their hand at the coverage again during the minutes when they were playing four bigs together against Charlotte. Not only did that prevent Jackson and Smith from defending in space, it put more size at the top of the zone than what was the case when they had to come out of the coverage against the Bucks after getting burned by numerous, simple passes over the top.
In summation, the Pacers made the right adjustments for playing big to win the day as to the bench battle, but there's reason to think that was match-up specific while also questioning if having the occasional option to size up against opposing second units is worth the continued time-share at back-up five.
Matt Edwards: Do you think that Isaiah Jackson could be more of a 4 or is he just a pure Rolling 5? He seems like he has decent lateral quickness and could guard on the perimeter a bit if he could just get the time needed.
He's played a grand total of 13 minutes next to Myles Turner this season, so it would appear as though the Pacers aren't particularly banged up about that idea. They do occasionally use him as a roamer big on defense, which plays into his event creation and keeps him out of ball screen coverages, but there isn't often a secondary rim protector on the floor to make up for some of the angles he takes and how jumpy he can be when closing out.
As you noted, he's capable of drawing oohs and aahs in this role when switching out and shuffling. After all, this is basically what every defensive slide drill aims to be.
Offensively, he occasionally turns the ball downhill out of hand-offs with his left, but he's shot 32 percent outside the restricted area and only attempted 16 percent of his field-goal attempts as jump shots. Right now, he's more so a five who is small than a small-ball five. If he plays alongside Turner, Jackson will most likely be the player operating as the screener, with the former getting pushed out to the perimeter. But, unlike what turned out to be the outcome with Smith, this most likely wouldn't be a starting frontcourt pairing. It would be about finding minutes for Jackson for the purposes of finding out exactly what they have in him.
Josh: What building blocks do you see in this team that would make the Pacers a 'contender' next season? What flaws do you see that would prevent them from making that type of leap?
The Pacers currently have the third-worst record in the Eastern Conference against above .500 teams (13-29), and during the 821 minutes when Haliburton and Mathurin have been on the floor together, they've allowed 119.1 points per 100 possessions -- a mark which is just a shade better than the league's worst defense owned by the San Antonio Spurs (119.3).
And, here's the thing. Many of the team's distinguishing features on that end of the floor don't seem to jibe with what the numbers say. For instance, when opponents hunt Haliburton and sometimes just for the purpose of providing a deterrent, the Pacers are extremely aggressive at bringing help to the nail, almost appearing as though they are in zone.
Likewise, because they play four-guard lineups, they routinely assign Myles Turner to low-usage wings in order to keep him low around the basket, as was the case late against Toronto, when Andrew Nembhard defended Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, and Jakob Poeltl all on the same possession, before motioning for the veteran big man to scram him out of the mismatch.
To compensate for what they give up in length while capitalizing on their speed and the benefit of kinetic energy, they also frequently peel switch, with the nearest help defender switching onto the ball while the beaten defender switches onto another player. Or, at least that's the aim. This is a whoopsie from Chris Duarte.
When bigger wings catch the ball in the post, they double on the catch and bring help from the weak-side.
Sometimes, they even trap the ball 75 feet away from the basket, so as to avoid getting outsized by ball-dominant stars.
Taken altogether, all of this is being done with the intention of fortifying the paint, first, and springing out to shooters, second; and yet, they allow the fourth-highest percentage of shots at the rim in the NBA. Over the course of the season, teams have found counters for luring Turner outside the paint, and try as they might, no matter how many bodies they attempt to put in the line of danger, their bodies are still smaller, at most positions, than those they are trying to contain, let alone keep off the glass.
As such, without changes to the roster, it doesn't seem likely they will be able to scheme themselves out of what the scheme is already geared to protect against -- unless two of the team's building blocks, being Haliburton and Mathurin, make significant strides at that end of the floor.
Lucas Mueller: Since the Pacers already have a core player (Tyrese) who will be targeted in isolation in the playoffs, should the Pacers look to acquire another isolation liability (or be more ok with the trade off)? Since offenses can't isolate 2 players in a possession.
This is already the reality, right? Jalen Brunson, for example, targeted Buddy Hield repeatedly when the Knicks got the better of the Pacers in December, including during stretches when Haliburton was also on the floor.
What's telling is that the Pacers, at times, have viewed Buddy as the more favorable match-up, deliberately pre-switching him into actions over Haliburton.
When it comes to the playoffs, there's going to be added incentive to target Haliburton for the fatigue factor. He's the engine that makes them go, and they know this. At 14.4 seconds, the Pacers are tied for the second-fastest offense following a made shot, and they rank third in transition frequency. Surrounding him with defenders who are equipped to hide his weaknesses while maintaining the fuel he has in the tank to power the team's strengths, particularly in the open floor, should arguably be the priority as far as roster construction.
Craig Lindemann: Myles has taken a leap on the offensive end this year, and still anchors the D and directs traffic at a high level, getting some MIP love and shout outs for himself on the Dunker Spot and Lowe Post recently. So let’s keep the momentum rolling and make Myles an All-Defensive candidate in ‘23-24. What scheme best utilizes him on D and what skill sets or archetypes do the Pacers need to add around him to unlock it?
Regardless of the size of the players around him, stopping players from getting blow by drives or dribbling downhill off screens is really hard. In that regard, there might be merit to insuring he's always around the rim, even if they stop playing four-guard lineups next season and, maybe, even more so if they stop playing four-guard lineups next season. Think of it this way. Turner wasn't on the floor for this possession; however, while Mathurin's point of attack defense against the Raptors eventually made it necessary to cross-match a wing onto Poeltl so they could switch ball screens, exactly what chance does Nesmith have of stopping this?
Along those same lines, he was scrapping and clawing with everything in him to front Joel Embiid in the post after the Pacers had exhausted all other options with double (and sometimes triple) teams, and it was still as though he was a bug getting scraped off a windshield.
That's an extreme example. After all, Embiid leads the league in scoring and is an MVP candidate for a reason, but he also has a history of destroying Turner, which is why they were trying to force someone else to beat them while protecting his fouls.
In essence, the Pacers need someone who can do what Nesmith has so valiantly attempted to do -- only better, preventing post-ups and switching out to the ball, so Turner can continue to lurk around the rim and provide passive size in the lane.
Danny Rhoda: The three-man lineups of Haliburton-Mathurin-Turner have been dominate this season (+11.3 in 796 possessions per Cleaning the Glass), especially in transition - what have you seen that makes this combination mesh so well together, and what defensive adjustments can the Pacers make to increase transition opportunities?
So, another drawback to how small the Pacers are when they are in scramble mode is the vulnerability that flying around and help-switching can create on the glass.
For the season, the Pacers rank dead-last in opponent offensive rebounding rate. In theory, if they can finish more stops with rebounds and avoid some of the gaps that get manufactured by putting themselves in heavy rotation, they should be able to run even more than they already do -- especially since they score 131.4 points per 100 transition plays that come off a live-ball rebound, which is good for the third-best mark in the league.
Nikhil: I've been wondering, why has the Pacers defense struggled so much since Dan Burke left? Is it directly because of the impact he had as a coach, or is there more to it like roster construction, etc.? Maybe I'm imagining it, but I don't feel like I ever saw players have so much difficulty staying in front of their man back then.
Probably a mix of both. During his final season, when the Pacers finished the season ranking sixth in defensive rating, that was somewhat a feat of engineering given that Jeremy Lamb started for 42 games in place of Victor Oladipo, who had to ramp up from injury and was never quite himself, although still quite good at teleporting as the low-man and playing free safety. Meanwhile, there was also a certain degree of trust that they could tighten the screws on wing players, such as T.J. Warren, who previously had a reputation as a bad defender. Still, that scheme was largely geared around strict adherence to defending individual match-ups, while defending without fouling and shrinking the radius of the bigs around the basket.
When the playoffs came, they did what got them there -- and they weren't really ready to do anything else. Think back to when they came out and switched out of nowhere against the Boston Celtics. At first, there was an element of surprise, but it soon became apparent that they didn't have any experience with the change in coverage. Then, when they were playing in the bubble, they largely refused to make changes, despite how much they were struggling to chase over on hand-offs against Miami.
Granted, the Bjorkgren-scheme was ill-fitting and arguably hyper-aggressive while also being under-baked, but there's a reason why there was so much discussion that season on being disruptive and not doing something for the first time during the playoffs. Of course, in order to be disruptive in the playoffs, they needed to actually make the playoffs, but I digress. Point being, it wasn't far-fetched to think that some innovation was needed on that end of the floor. As it pertains to now, it's possible there might be more player development if Burke was still around, but that's not for me to say from the outside. The current staff has devised a mission on that end of the floor; they just oftentimes fall short of executing it -- in part, because they are, quite literally, "short" in a lot of areas.
Austen: I know you asked to steer clear of the draft but I am curious, what do you think is the biggest need for the team heading into the off-season? This team feels almost ready to compete for home court advantage and I’m wondering what you view as the missing ingredient.
One word, Austen: De-fense.
(This concludes the Pacers-centric portion of the mailbag. There will be more on general basketball and the blog soon.)
Comments
Caitlin Cooper
sad jeff teague is always there when you need him
Frank M Cook
None of the writers I mention write in verse. By prose poems, I mean prose that is poetic in the beauty of its descriptions. Here's a piece from the beginning of Slow Horses which is a TV series on AppleTV you might watch in the summer. The front door, as stated, lurks in a recess. Its ancient black paintwork is spattered with road splash, and the shallow pane of glass above its jamb betrays no light within. An empty milk bottle has stood in its shadow so long, city lichen has bonded it to the pavement. There is no doorbell, and the letterbox has healed like a childhood wound: any mail—and there’s never any mail—would push at its flap without achieving entry. Herron, Mick. Slow Horses (Slough House) (p. 13). Soho Press. Kindle Edition.
Caitlin Cooper
I studied history in college, so I read non-fiction as well as fiction. I'm not often into poetry. However, my favorite novel is Les Miserables. Victor Hugo writes like a poet and there are certain passages of that novel that make me question why I would ever even try to write. I'm currently preparing to give Proust a try for the first time. I love writing that makes me feel like a speck.
Frank M Cook
You mention writing styles. Do you read fiction? I love the prose poems of Silva and Herron but the formatting of Bruen is unique. I tried to paste in an except but the software removed the carriage returns that only he uses.
Thomas
Per the last question I am refusing to believe in a top 2 pick as a possibility and I have my heart set on Jarace Walker and am so ready for it to be broken when he goes before the Pacers pick.
