When Diplomacy Fails Podcast
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#26: 25 July 1914 I - The Last Chance for Peace?
🕑 Added 2024-09-02 08:55:28 +0000 UTCBy now, everyone was expecting Austria-Hungary to do something once its ultimatum expired later in the day, but what? And could this response be adjusted, and peace be preserved, if only a certain diplomatic finesse was applied?
In Britain, Sir Edward Grey certainly hoped so. The solution, to him, seemed one of mediation, where the four uninvolved powers - Britain, France, Germany and Italy - gathered to arbitrate the Austro-Serb dispute. The question then became, could Germany be brought on side? Many were doubtful. It did not help that the German claim it had known nothing of the ultimatum was highly suspicious. Was it truly believable that Austria had acted entirely alone? This question informed the responses.
In Russia, Sergei Sazonov continued to lead a firmer and more assertive foreign policy, but to what end? As he learned of the British mediation plans, Sazonov did not rule them out, but he also failed to mention that Russia's preliminary military measures were already underway. It was understood that mobilisation was a dangerous risk, which would complicate mediation efforts. The further these measures had gone by the time mediation got its chance, the harder it would be to save the peace. This was why an extension of Austria's 48 hour deadline became briefly popular - this would give everyone sufficient time to act. Unsurprisingly, Vienna opposed this measure, and it scarcely got off the ground before time had run out, and Serbia handed over its reply.
Contrary to contemporary views and the opinions of historians since, the Serbian reply was not designed to placate Austria. It was instead designed to engender sympathy among the Entente. There was no defiant language or accusations, but Belgrade's response did reject core Austrian demands, and denied that they Vienna possessed sufficient evidence to prosecute its case. As the Austrians fully appreciated, the ultimatum was always designed to be unacceptable, but Serbia's 'perfumed' response, rather than a full throated message of defiance, greatly complicated the situation. Indeed, it was one among many complications of the day, as the glacial pace of Austrian policymaking encountered yet more roadblocks. All the while, in the east, Russian soldiers were marching to their destinations. If there was a chance for peace, then this was surely the last chance.
Comments
When Diplomacy Fails Podcast
Thanksss Ian. It is definitely on my radar for a later episode. There is plenty to still explore about the situation in Serbia, and I'm also tempted to cover the initial campaign by the Habsburgs and all its terrible failings.
Ian
Excellent episode! I loved the nuanced take on the Serb response to the ultimatum. I'm wondering if you might ever do a one-off episode on the Salonika trial, when Pašić purges Apis? Might be a good coda to this series. I suspect King Alexandar and Pašić had their own domestic reasons for wanting to get rid of him by this point, even without the war. But his execution-and those of other prominent conspirators from 1914-does seem to also be connected with the secret peace talks Serbia was engaged in with Austria-Hungary by that stage of the war. Might that have been a strict Habsburg condition for peace, or was it more meant as goodwill, given that Pašić would have been aware that the new emperor lacked the strong legitimacy of his predecessor or the training that Franz Ferdinand had put himself through? I also wonder how much of this was tied into the post-Brusilov situation in Russia, which Britain and France were very aware of and were taking into their calculations before the US entered the war. Unrelated, but have you ever read Zelikow's book on the failed peace attempts between Britain and Germany with the US as a mediator? They seem to interestingly be at the *exact* same time that Austria-Hungary was talking to France via the Lateran: and apparently the talks with Serbia were completely in parallel to this, from my admittedly limited knowledge. If true, it just goes to show that the multifaceted character of alliance diplomacy didn't die in 1914.
