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【國際關係深度評：經典復刻 🇦🇲🇦🇿】當「大亞美尼亞」遇上「大阿塞拜疆」

🕑 Added 2025-08-12 09:01:01 +0000 UTC

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George

In the upcoming Ukraine peace talks with Putin, Trump can strategically leverage the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal to secure his desired outcome. By offering Russia a role in the Zangezur Corridor, now rebranded as the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), Trump can provide a war-ravaged Russia with an opportunity to regain limited regional influence in the South Caucasus, incentivizing Putin’s cooperation to save his face and to fulfil his MAGA agendas. This corridor, which connects Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave and Turkey while bypassing Russia and Iran, undermines China’s Belt and Road Initiative by offering Central Asian states an alternative trade route to European markets, reducing Beijing’s economic dominance in the region. Additionally, Azerbaijan’s potential economic boom from enhanced natural resource exports through the corridor poses a threat to Iran, as its northern Turkic neighbor could attract the Iranian province of Azerbaijan to align with its Turkic kin, destabilizing Tehran’s control. Further leverage comes from the deal’s impact on Russia’s waning regional influence, as Moscow’s failure to prevent Azerbaijan’s 2023 recapture of Nagorno-Karabakh and its deteriorating ties with both Armenia and Azerbaijan—exacerbated by incidents like the alleged 2024 downing of an Azerbaijani airliner—have weakened its position. Trump can use this to pressure Putin, offering Russia’s reinclusion in the corridor’s development as a concession contingent on progress in the Ukraine talks. Moreover, the U.S.’s 99-year development rights over the corridor, coupled with bilateral economic agreements with Armenia and Azerbaijan, position Washington as a key guarantor of regional stability, enhancing Trump’s diplomatic clout. However, Russia’s potential to act as a spoiler, through economic pressure or disinformation campaigns in Armenia’s 2026 elections, underscores the need for sustained U.S. engagement to ensure the deal’s success and maximize its leverage in negotiations with Putin.